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Math question:  Pot odds to call to set mine Math question:  Pot odds to call to set mine

06-11-2014 , 11:02 PM
Drawing a total blank here....

What is the proper Pot Odds needed to call a PF raise w/ mid pocket pair to set mine? Can someone point me to a definitive source, I think I have heard everything from 5:1 to 20:1
06-12-2014 , 12:18 AM
First, you can call mid PPs for pair value, too.
Second, addressing your question, the common rule is 10-20:1.
The probability of flopping a set is around 12%. So that gives you about 8-to-1 against.
The idea behind the 20:1 is that not always will you get paid off, and sometimes you'll hit your set and still lose. Also, sometimes the flop and sometimes even the turn are checked through in which case you have a higher probability of hitting your set.
Also, you can decide to play your pair and don't just play hit-or-fold.

So, the 20:1 may have been a good rule in the past where you were paid off a lot more often than nowadays. But it's okay vs weak opponents.
On the other hand, vs weak opponents you can probably play your PP for pair value anyway.

Third, you probably mean the 'implied pot odds' which is basically 'effective stack size' to 'raise size' odds.

Last edited by Jever; 06-12-2014 at 12:23 AM.
06-12-2014 , 12:26 AM
5:1 is waaay off.

10 or 15:1 is prob the minimum you would want - and that would be under ridiculously ideal situation. It would have to be a spot where villain is VERY tight so you know if you hit your set you are gonna stack him.

20:1 is going to be a lot safer for you overall. everything jever said I agree with.

so when you are playing if you just have zero idea of what villain has and how he will react postflop, I'd stick with closer to 20:1. If you have certain reads it can make the ratio go down.
06-12-2014 , 09:42 AM
Great advice. I feel like vomiting calling 3 bets in general but find myself doing it in position with PP getting 10:1 implied then post flop after a miss trying to talk myself into a value line vs. certain villains. Every aspect of that feels spewy. Haven't had enough hands in HEM to tell me how -EV it is over a decent sample so this advice will help me fold out most of those unless I'm deep or have a read.

Yeah, I meant implied odds above, that is correct.
06-12-2014 , 11:03 AM
Just start by folding 22-44 when you get only 10:1 in position. Even if you somehow get those checked to showdown you could be counterfeited by the Board. And you have zero chance of being ahead preflop. Where with 55, 66 at least sometimes he'll have A4 or A5s and you'll be way ahead.
06-12-2014 , 11:30 AM
So you think 10:1 is good there IP. This is 100NL Bovada so there is light 3betting but not an insane amount.
06-12-2014 , 11:36 AM
I'd say that's the minimum. And if you are only getting 10:1 you gotta be able to win some hands when you don't hit
06-13-2014 , 01:42 PM
15:1 is good if you can put them on a very tight range and be very sure that they're going to stack off. In most situations, you should be at least 20:1.

10:1 should only be done multiway in very specific situations, and really, you should probably just avoid this if you don't know.

Set mining is highly overrated though and should really only happen in multi way pots or when you get 3 bet. If you're first or second in, you should probably raise or fold.

Last edited by AlexM; 06-13-2014 at 01:48 PM.

      
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