8 handed table at local casino, had some history with villian, we have played a decent amount of hands together and I have a healthy respect for his game.

Set-up -

SB - $550
BB - $47
UTG - $115
UTG+1 - $480
MP1 - $200
MP2 - $150
Villian (CO) - $400
Hero (BTN) - $410

UTG folds.
UTG+1 limps for $2.
MP1 folds.
MP2 raises to $10.
Villain re-raises to $40.
Hero calls $40 with QcQd
SB folds.
BB raises to $47 and is ALL-IN.
UTG+1 folds.
MP2 folds.
Villain calls $7.
Hero calls $7.

Preflop - $154 in the pot.

Villain has been playing for hours on the same table, hovering around a 200bb stack. Table is pretty soft and has been pretty well run over by myself and him (early 20's, white male) for the last hour and a bit, with the occasional big hand involving SB.

In the last 4 hours or so that we've been on the table together, Villain has only 3bet preflop once, and showed down AA against opponents AQ all-in preflop. Whilst he has been playing a decent number of pots, he has rarely been getting out of line and generally seems to have a pretty good idea of where he's at in a hand - making the right C-bets, folding when he's beat etc.. The only time he's been caught out was against me, when he triple barrel bluffed a Q64KA board only to muck when I called on the river with 67o.

Anyway...

Flop comes down 8c 3d 5c and Villain bets $100. I call with QcQd.

Turn comes 6s and Villain thinks for about 20 seconds before shoving for his remaining $253.

Hero...?

I still have the overpair, and whilst having the Qc is no longer relevant, I have to wonder whether my QQ is good - could he really have KK/AA? I'm almost 100% certain he doesn't hold a set as he wouldn't 3-bet with 88 with the two deepest stacks to act behind him preflop. Since he hasn't shown down any overpairs in the last few hours (has claimed to be pretty card dead), I'm not sure whether he would play AA/KK like this as with my smooth-call preflop I'm pretty sure he knows I have QQ/JJ or at worst, the AcKc. However, given this line of thought, betting, then shoving into a dry sidepot would make a lot of sense if he puts me specifically on QQ.

From his table talk, I know he is a pretty decent level thinking player, and I'm sure he is aware that with one player already all-in, he will have to open his hand at some point anyway - whether I call or not, which seems less likely that he is betting a hand worse than mine like 99-JJ. However, I feel like 99 is not a part of his range here due to the fact that like 88, he wouldn't be 3-betting preflop.

I was able to watch him play 99 earlier on, where in late position he just limped for $2 (after about 4 others had already limped), then just smooth-call $10 when button made it $12. He shoved over the top of a bet and a call on a 7 high flop and doubled up through one of the fish who was playing A7o.

Though they were never shown down, he had claimed once or twice to have either layed down or been holding 77-TT, and in these instances he either smooth-called an opening raise or opened himself to $10-$15, so yes I am very confident he is not holding a hand in this range, simply due to the line he has taken.

How do you proceed here, do you call off all but all of your stack with QQ or lay it down?

Will post results after a reading a few comments.

I would fold.

ur hands pretty much face up, u say hes good enough so he should know what you have and i doubt he would try to get you off it as a bluff,

also pretty much everything u wrote made it sound like you beat no hands that he would play like that, so....fold

tl; dr

reading this it seems to me that the issue your having here is that his value range is quite narrow aa, kk and that you had seen him make a bluff ealier. bluff ealier is in a single raised pot i assume. so he saw you hero call down and own him, he has 3bet infrequenly, the sidepot is dry. all of these things make this a laydown. if he doesnt show up with a hand that beats queens here hes either really good at poker or not very good at all. btw i like the way you played this hand till this point.

you have convinced me to fold

also you are giving alot of credit. you are probably overthinking.

PS you have really good memory; i would not play you at a 1/2 table live.

THIS is the simple reason as to why this single hand is still on my mind - my hand is face up, and I'm torn as to whether he is shoving for value, or as a bluff - there is $154 in the pot preflop and this is dead money as far as I'm concerned, as I am certain that the shortstack in the BB is commiting his last few bux with a very wide range, that one or both of us surely have crushed.

I know this decision should be based purely on my specific read of the situation, but what I want to hear is opinions from other live 200NL players - are there opponents out there who are capable of making a move like this as a bluff? And not just a random bluff either, a conscious bluff where villain knows exactly what you're holding and knows the only way they can win the pot is by pushing you off an overpair. I know that one of the biggest cash camels in 200NL is making a hand that beats an overpair, as most players will not fold JJ-AA on a board of undercards. I myself know how to fold when the situation presents it - I regularly fold QQ preflop when I know I'm beat (and somehow every time I wake up with QQ, the action around me dictates that folding pre is the right decision - and yes I've been proven right the last couple of times that's happened). I've never been in the situation where I've had to think long and hard for all my chips preflop with KK, but when it arises I'm pretty confident that I'll be able to make the correct call or laydown (hopefully call!).

i mean ya there are people capable of making a move there as a bluff, but its such a small small amount and the way you described him didnt give me the impression he would be trying to make you fold QQ here.

Bluffing here would be really bad ... so if he's decent i'm assuming you're crushed.

This is AA 100% of the time. Hes not going to level you into folding QQ at these stakes live. Hes trying to take you down to value town...hope u folded.

Ok, since I'm going to be out of town for the next couple of days, I'll post the result of the hand now.

Hero called, villain showed AKo and couldn't suck out on the river.

And for the record, I am actually villain in this hand - I was 100% certain that the guy had QQ, and knew that he was the only player on the table capable of folding in that spot. Against anybody else on the table, and against 95% of opponents in this casino, I would NEVER make this type of move. I literally narrowed his hand down to QQ-JJ the second he smooth-called my preflop 3-bet, and when he called my turn bet I was certain it was QQ. I would've actually prefered that he held JJ, as I'm pretty certain I would've induced a fold . By taking into account all of the previously mentioned factors, I think I just ended up outplaying myself since clearly my opponent wasn't thinking on the same level. I also should've been smart enough to realise that if my opponent is calling $100 on the flop, he is calling a shove for $250 more on any non A/K turn.

With AcKc I would most likely open-shove the flop, as any amount that I bet will build the pot to a point where my opponent can't fold to a turn shove, given the price they are getting on a call.

I would play AA/KK and possibly QQ in exactly the same fashion as I played this hand, as I know any overpair will pay me off.

Even though I blew 200bb on a bluff, I'm not at all disappointed - I was spot on with my read on this player, and managed to use all of the information available to me to make the most correct play. In the long run, I believe this is by far the most profitable way to play in this spot, as I will play AA/KK exactly the same, and my unimproved A-high hands this way against the players I perceive to be decent level thinking players, capable of throwing away overpairs should the situation dictate it to be the right move - which in the hand in question, I believe, should have been a fold by hero. The more I think about it, the more I KNOW that in the same scenario, I would throw away the QQ, as really - what part of villains range do the QQ's have beat? Only a bluff, or the extremely slim chance that he has the other two Q's. For the record, I won't play JJ this way. I'd be more likely to throw the $100 on the flop, then check it down, because hero's hand is as face up as it can be from that point.

Ho hum.. Maybe I need to just stop thinking and go back to ABC

This guy called you down with a pair of sixes on a broadway board

and you're trying to get him to fold an overpair?

lol