Villain is 38/28 in only 29 hands but only called 1/9 raises so far. What range do you give him here? Should i even cbet this flop? And what do you think his range on the river is

BTN: €100.76
Hero (SB): €99.00
BB: €150.19
UTG: €66.76
MP: €54.72
CO: €105.95

Hero posts SB €0.50, BB posts BB €1.00

Pre Flop: (€1.50) Hero has 5 A

fold, fold, CO raises to €3.00, fold, Hero raises to €11.00, BB calls €10.00, fold

Flop: (€25.00, 2 players) A 7 T
Hero bets €13.00, BB calls €13.00

Turn: (€51.00, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BB checks

River: (€51.00, 2 players) T
[color=red]Hero

I really don't like 3betting from $3 to $11. It's so huge. $9.50 will suffice, $10 if you must.

Hand looks good so far. River is a very easy check. The interesting part is what size he bets on the river. Some people check back draws on the turn (and he has a ton of those) esp on Axx boards since they can credibly represent Ax on the river and avoid a turn c/shove. Other people bet air on the turn. With no info we don't know what he'd do, but check and see how much he bets.

Really?

What range do you think a virtually unknown 100NL player is cold-calling with pre 100BB effective vs. our large 3 bet?

b/f or c/f. leaning towards b/f. noone ever bluffs on this river but people still call JJ/QQ a decent amount, which are his most likely hands once he checks the turn I'd say.

I'd assume most unknowns running 38/28 so far would call preflop much too wide. KQ/QJ/KJ almost always esp suited ones, 89/low spade SCs. Plenty of draws compared to just Ax hands.

^^ +1, that's why I asked about his range PF. I don't know how to gauge it. He doesn't seem like a calling-fish, he's aggressive himself and likes to raise PF, that's why he only called a raise out of 9 so far, and now he cold calls a 3bet.

Other opinions on 3bet size? I thought need to make it like 3.5 OOP to be effective

Edit: Keyser, you really think they'd cold call a 3bet squeezed with 98s and QJ/KJ ? Really doubt it tbh - maybe you misread the hand with him as preflop raiser

hmm i kinda feel like I'm in bizzaro land here if you guys think a random with a vpip of 38 over 29 hands would even dream of folding those pre


@drum, please don't bet river. There are far more combinations of better Ax, Tx, and draws that could bluff than there are of QQ/JJ

That's what I did, same logic. So you figure an A bets the turn pretty much?

betting is seriously atrocious trust meeeeeee

Yeah because I don't really see people calling a 3bet when they're not the PFR that often. And those that do usually have VPIPs of 60+

The fact that he only called 1/9 preflop raises (normal ones, not 3bets) so far doesn't mean something?

Have to admit I didn't really see the guy's stats, thought they were more in line. I was assuming a totally different range than you which lead to different conclusions. When normal tags call here (not that you need to have a calling range here, but some do), it's mostly AQ,AK(very discounted),TT,JJ,QQ+ a few combos of KK/AA that they trap with. The only Tx they have is TT which is 1 combo and I'd expect AQ/AK to mostly bet the turn.

lol im kind of an idiot, sorry i thought the pfr did call

def really weird situation now and a bet makes more sense

carry on!

phew, was going mental hehe

Using zilla it seems if we give him the tag-ish range of AK-AQ and mid pairs it's a c/f on the flop because of his A combos. At the time discounted the A's because I thought AK 4bets and a good A should bet the turn. But thinking about it after a cold 4bet looks really strong so it makes sense if he cold calls them. So if his range is that narrow flop should be a c/f pretty much right?

Who are you 3beting? Info on that guy could widen/narrow villain's range.
I'd still think it's pretty much premium hands AQ+/JJ or QQ+, so b/f looks fine here

no. Yes coldcalling from reg looks like he have very strong range, but in this case, who sad your opponent is reg? I mean, he could call anything preflop. So if im having top pair, i should bet for value. I see a tonn hands weaker than mine can call here. For example KK QQ JJ any tx, flush draw, str8 draw, (even pair lower then T might give a call.) Ofcource he have some strongest hands than yours. But in general, we dont want him to bluff us out, so we need to bet the flop, and some of his hands will fold. (do u get the point?) So we would have his range: FDs/Gutshots, Med value hands (KK, QQ, Tx), and strongest hands (sets, 2ps, A6+). In case he is reg, u still got chanse that he will call with KK QQ, and fold a few hands. So its not a rush if we bet.

Against reg, i think checking is fine (and hoping he would check again and again). Because i think most regs will check beh KK QQ in this spot. And we can catch a free showdown.

Thats about it...

I'd check, hope to see JJ/QQ. If he bets I'd sigh/fold probably.

c/f. betting does absolutely nothing except get call by better. no worse hand is calling you on the river because how often do you really bluff this river? 11 is fine OOP. i prefer 10.5 but 11 is easier

are you betting the flop tho? you put his range wider than AQ+ and TT-QQ as well?

bumping this, still not clear about the flop betting which to me is the more important question. Does a cold caller have a range weighted a lot to Ax that beats us that we should c/f ?

fold v cold call

I think its close to impossible to give villain a decent range after 29 hands, he could be a nit, he could be a lag...
I think checking back the flop is better than betting, you can bet the turn once he calls and checks to you, if he leads you call the turn and evaluate on the river. If he leads turn and river I tend to muck it, its very unlikely your hand is best here (this is all due to us not knowing anything about villain).
as played..check back river, nothing worse is going to call you, if we assume that our opponent is not a complete moron.

Thx for the input, tho it's confusing cause you got the positions wrong, I was OOP villain had position. Everyone gets something wrong in this thread

weird
well, in that case ignore it

I like the way you played.
I think the river is an easy check/call.
You don't have any real info on this guy, so time to get some now.
The only hand i see him betting here for value is TJ, but so few combos

I think I might be confusing you with someone else but you play msnl right? Why do you like 10.5/11? IMO it doesn't really accomplish much unless you're just hoping people fold to your 3bets a lot which isn't necessarily what I always want. 11 risks so much to win ~4.5, loses more when you get 4bet, creates bloated pots postflop, while 9.5/10 still allows you to easily get stacks in on the river with half/half/shove.