Villian is aceskay, i think he has a bunny avatar on 2p2. Maybe not. Either way he is 2p2 and knows I am probably. I'm playing 21% of my hands or so, I was trying to sort out the forums while this hand happened so a little tighter/more solid than normal. I had been c/ring a lot of flops and 3betting less than normal (b/c i had been calling and c/ring). We have some history but I don't think anything is relevant to the situation at hand. I have some notes but I didn't look at them so pretend they don't exist. he plays like 20/18 or something. Made me suspicious but I'm not sure how often he is str8 bluffing this board.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
fees: $396
UTG+1: $197
CO: $209
Button: $492.25
SB: $256.80
BB: $86

Pre-flop: (6 players) fees is UTG with K Q
[color:#cc0000]fees raises to $7[/color], UTG+1 calls, 4 folds.

Flop: J T 5 ($17, 2 players)
[color:#cc0000]fees bets $12[/color], [color:#cc0000]UTG+1 raises to $36[/color], fees

WAJSOD!@$OTJQWSDOSAHDA i hate these godamn forums sorry for converter

well his calling range here is:

KcQc, J10, JcXc, 55 ~10.5 outs or more

his raising range is pretty wide, so I shove

call

easy shove

What ikestoys said

fwiw, i wouldn't be the least bit surprised if aceskay shows up w/TT or JJ here.

you've probably played him more than me but I'd be shocked if a 20/18 is flatting JJ.

I wouldn't be, some times these guys like to polarize their range so they arent put to decisions, i do throw out a bunch of 4bets if that changes anything

fees, i dont remember this hand specifically, but i have played a ton the last couple of days...

as for the hand in op, i definitely just call with JJ in pf to mix things up, so that could definitely be part of my range. in terms of what your next move should be, if i am in ur shoes and playing against someone i view as 2+2 and decently tough, then i am shoving without even thinking too much

also, fwiw, i've never had a bunny as my avatar on 2+2

mmk.. would you mind enlightening me as to what you had? PM if you want to keep it private, i'm v curious

i like a shove here.

I think this is a reasonable range for villain if he calls our shove: JJ-TT,55,AcJc,KcQc,QcJc,JTs,Jc9c,9c8c (QJs is questionable for his pf range but w/e)
Against this range we have 30% equity.

We are risking 178 to hopefully take down the 65$ pot. If we are called against that range we lose on average 97$. So, the ratio of him calling to folding should be equal to or less than 97:65 (I think), which I think translates into him having to fold at least 60% of the time here to make a shove profitable and seeing as I don't think complete air is bluffing this flop too often, I don't think 60% of his flop raising range is folding and therefore I muck. (I'm not sure if my math is correct so fix it if it isn't please)

damn i really need to know what aceskay had

There's something goofy about this but I'm too lazy to figure it out.

I shove.

thought this thread was dead, but you brought it back...why are you so curious?

have we tangled on ftp the last couple of days?

fwiw, i had a very strangely played QQ here, and alot of the reason for my playing it that way was dependent on the table conditions at the time. normally QQ is an automatic 3-bet here, but there was A LOT of re-raising and squeezing going on pf, so i was trying to induce some action by just calling the original raise

I am so confused as to why fees didn't find out what you had :P

fwiw he could have TT/JJ here, perhaps like 1/3 to 1/2 of the time he might flatcall pf in a UTG/UTG+1 situation.

theres something goofy about just spewing shove and I proved it, u can disprove my post by either correcting my math or proposing different ranges.

markuisis, definitely don't fold.

tubas right, he could definitely have TT/JJ here. I flat a lot with these hands in this spot fwiw.

i just realized that someone already said that at the top of the thread. oops,

I included those in his range and obviously their inclusion decreases the equity of shoving but anyways, unless my math or ranges are wrong - do u think he folds at least 60% of the hands he is raising that flop with? If not then its a fold.
Once again though, my math and ranges might be off and feel free to correct them if u think so.

calling is definitely better then folding for a start.

OOP with tainted outs?

good enough equity vs his range to continue, pretty much as simple as that, although oop does suck, which is why you should definitely consider shoving. I can see a shove being good here sometimes and think he will fold enough, but I really can't see a fold being good at all.