villain is 16/9 with a WTSD of 9 after 200+ hands


Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP): $100.00
CO: $50.30
BTN: $381.50
SB: $104.55
BB: $153.35
UTG: $119.80

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with 6 6
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) 3 5 T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $16, BB calls $16

River: ($52.50) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $41

Worst 2barrel card in the deck IMO. But if you 2 barrel i guess firing the third time is OKish.

why? at the time i thought it makes one more set less likely and I dont think a 16/9 has too many Tx combos in his range vs an mp raise

Really dislike turn and river.

So you're looking to fold out 77-99?

His range after calling flop is a 3,5, T, maybe 46 or low-mid PP. When the turn pairs the 5 the 5's are way ahead, you fold out the 3 and the ten and PP still thinks you are FOS. After firing the turn, firing the river and repping an overpair or boat isn't bad if you think he folds a weak ten but if you think that he doesn't have many Tx comobos in his pf range ask yourself what his range after c/c two streets on this board. Its a set, trips, a ten, or 77-99 and 99 just got there. I would check behind this turn and would be more likely to fire the third barrel on a K river than a 9 river.

I quess the turn bet is OK because he probably folds 77-99 and maybe even a T which shouldn't be a big part of his range.

After he calls your turn bet I think he has JJ/QQ pretty often , because not so many other hands makes a lot of sense with those stats. So I think I would just check the river.

What hands in his flop calling range fold to the 2nd barrel. 77-99, and that's only some % of the time.

But what kind of stats did villain have on you at the time of the hand?

In other words, if he thinks you are raising way more often with non-overpair hands, and that you are hyper-aggressive with missed overcards and non-set low pairs, then he's not folding on the river any hand with which he called the turn.

yea good point.

I guess I got carried away here looking at a 16/9 and a low wtsd and thought there was no way he could handle 3 streets of heat.

turn bet was basically me thinking he didnt have Tx very often w/ his tight stats and 77-99 should fold w/ that low wtsd.

His preflop stats combined with his really low wtsd makes me want to fire muliple barrels even less given how loose passive these games are.

??? yea the games are loose/passive but this guy is playing way too tight for a 6max game. I'd rather fire 2/3 barrels against a guy like this than a 32/12 w/ a wtsd of 28

It's really easy to get to showdown in this games once you get past a flop bet since players aren't firing multiple barrels that often. This guys preflop stats makes it even less likely guys are firing multiple barrels at him since his range is already so strong. These two factors combined together tell me that the reason his wtsd is so low is because he is folding the flop a **** ton not bc he his folding a bunch on the turn/river. The fact that he peeled the flop would worry me. So I guess I'm not saying I like this against a 32/12 28% wtsd either but that I think this guys wtsd may be misleading when it comes to his willingness to fold to multiple barrels.

a turn bet against a 32/12 would be for value, amirite?

maybe if the 5 didnt pair


anyways for anyone interested in the results

villain ended up requesting time and using about 10 seconds of his bank before calling with QTd.