Assuming bankroll isn't an issue, how do you know when to move up? Can you assume you've beaten a limit if, say, you make 50 buyins profit?

I know it's been asked somewhere, but I couldn't find it searching. Ty

http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

Alright, it's actually a Beginner's question, so it belongs in their forum.
Move up when you
a) had a considerable sample of beating this limit (that is 100k hands+ at 4bb/100+) or
b) if you have enough of a bankroll, and feel comfortable playing the regs, and outplay most of the regs.

^^ kind of nitpicking but i dont think youll be able to outplay majority of the regs when you move up. Theyve had time to study/play at that limit for longer so prob way more likely to be better then you

Even over 100k hands your standard deviation is gonna be about 2.5 to 3bb/100 so it's hard to say unless you're absolutely crushing over that sample

On the other hand I don't think you should aim to spend years at the same limit so "whenever you're comfortable moving up" is as good a metric as any

I think it's more like 80-100bb/100.

My logic was, if I need 40 buyins to assure that there's a 95% chance I won't go busto, then if I win 40 buyins, I must be 95% sure that I've beat the level and can move up.

Is this thinking flawed?

If you win 40 buyins over 1m hands, I wouldn't think you had significantly beaten a level.

all this "how you know if you beat the limit" is so pointless imo

if you got enough money to not make you play "scarred" then play whatever stake you want. If you start to dislike losing then drop down. If your winning and you have enough money to not play scared or losing a few buy ins then move up.

Frankly, I don't see any logic in what you've written.

The reason you need a large number of buy-ins before moving up is to ensure that you can play your game comfortably (i.e., move all in when you have the best it, etc.) without scared money. You need to be able to absorb a bad streak, or a potential ass whoopin' as you adjust to the higher skill level. I know nothing of this claim that 40 buy-ins means there's a 95% chance you won't go broke. You could still easily go broke--e.g., if you lost 20 buy-ins in a row and stubbornly continued playing at that level, you could easily lose the other 20 and go busto.

Also, don't forget that the number "40" is completely arbitrary. Some respected pros say more, some say less. There is no right, one-size-fits-all answer. It depends on how risk averse you are.

None of the points above, or the arbitrary number of buy-ins chosen, have any bearing on the issue of whether or not you have "beaten" a lower level.
My advice (which should be taken with a grain of salt), is not to to worry about whether you've "beaten" the level you're currently playing. You will improve the fastest if you continue to challenge yourself and keep the learning curve as steep as your bankroll will allow for. To this end, you should take a shot at the next level up when your bankroll allows for it (if 40 buy-ins at the new level is the amount you require, then so be it). If you lose more than 20% of your bankroll, back down you go--reflect on your errors, rebuild your bankroll, and then and try again.

Of course, but I meant the regs at your former stakes.

When you feel like your stomping those around you. When tough spots don't come around very often. If your own judgement can't tell you accurately where you stand, then your simply not there yet.

I meant over 100k hands though (100k = 1000 * 100 and SD is quadratic so it's 80-100bb/100 / sqrt(1000) = about 2.5-3bb/100 over that sample)

It was a premise. If it's true that a given player won't go busto if he has 40 buyins, then it seems to follow that if a given player wins 40 buyins, he can be as confident that he's "beaten the level" as he was about his 40 buyin bankroll management strategy.

40 buyins is not arbitrary, you can actually do math and figure out it out depending on what risk of ruin you'd like to take.

Part of my issue is that I'm playing in the US on a site without any tracking software, so I don't know how many hands I'm playing.

I don't follow you here.