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Got lost on the river with flopped nuts Got lost on the river with flopped nuts

12-11-2015 , 10:43 AM
CO: $112.50 (VPIP: 22.47, PFR: 17.80, 3Bet Preflop: 4.63, Hands: 735)
BTN: $32.25 (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
Hero (SB): $64.50
BB: $33.75 (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 9)
UTG: $40.70 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 10.71, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 56)

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has K J

fold, CO raises to $1.50, fold, Hero calls $1.25, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($4.50, 3 players) K K J
Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks

Turn: ($4.50, 3 players) 5
Hero bets $3.50, fold, CO calls $3.50

River: ($11.50, 2 players) A
Hero bets $6.00, CO raises to $20.00, fold,

The villain is reasonably competent player. What line would you take and what is your decision on river (I folded).
12-11-2015 , 10:53 AM
Over 735 hands, sure. You have a K so...
12-11-2015 , 11:13 AM
Feels like this is exactly AA for a value range so 3 combos.

14/51.50 = 27% equity so villain needs just over 1 full bluff or worse value for you to break even. Say a little over 2 for rake.

Add in a few combos of terribly played AK maybe a few more.
12-11-2015 , 12:05 PM
Does he always value flat stuff like straights on paired boards? Might wanna mine for that, look for a few points on yours v his river dynamic.
12-11-2015 , 02:52 PM
I just had a look at some strong hands that went to showdown and it seems like he is raising river with nut hands and rather calls on paired boards. I don't see him playing AK this way in a 3-way pot post flop so the line makes sense for AA only. I was also thinking about JJ but I guess I can discount that as he would go for value on flop and turn from Kx hands, right?
12-11-2015 , 09:32 PM
Not folding, not raising, and not thinking too much about it
12-13-2015 , 09:54 AM
You're ahead of QT
12-13-2015 , 03:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Veganzombies
You're ahead of QT
Median.
12-14-2015 , 01:05 PM
Stunned that people are even thinking about folding this... Epic nitness... We are paying 14 to win 50, very ez call...
12-14-2015 , 04:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AbsoluteTilt
Not folding, not raising, and not thinking too much about it
this.

folding is terrible. We are only beat by AA. Even 55 can play like this, since we basically never have AK/JJ in this spot and probably only 1 combo of KJ.
12-14-2015 , 11:10 PM
yeah, never ever ever in a billion years folding this.. pretty unreal. This is literally the best possible hand we can have here. We can't have AA or KK so this is the absolute top of our range. If we fold this we literally never call this river.
12-16-2015 , 03:34 AM
Yeah, i dont think I would ever fold, honestly against some ppl you can find a value shove. AK wouldve bet flop or raise turn, and i think AA would have taken a stab at the flop but i could be wrong. Also you block AK. Also, he could be overvaluing a worse full house like 55, JJ he probably bets flop but it wouldnt be uncommon to slow play that IMO. He could be raising QT cause i dont think he puts you on KJ, and if hes a fish he might be raising KQ here(but thats unlikely cause he probably bets flop with that). If you're beat, its just a cooler and no one is gonna say you played this hand bad cause you went broke with kings full, its quite simple. I dont think even phil hellmuth can find a fold here
12-16-2015 , 12:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katon Bond
I dont think even phil hellmuth can find a fold here
Disagree but those 4 minutes in where he Hollywoods the fold is worth it.
12-16-2015 , 03:05 PM
Thanks guys, in retrospect I do believe it was ******ed to fold
12-16-2015 , 03:31 PM
Look at the pot odds u are getting! u have to be a nit from nitsville to fold that spot

      
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