Full Tilt Poker $1.00/$2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $222.55
UTG: $138.85
Hero (MP): $220.00
CO: $210.05
BTN: $145.40
SB: $81.90

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with T T
1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, BB raises to $22, Hero calls $15

Flop: ($45.00) A 6 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($45.00) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $38, BB calls $38

River: ($121.00) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $79


Villain is 15/11/something/400. Multitabling nit.

Let's see.. how often does this need to work? Let's say we just look at the river (because obviously we have to double barrel). 118 in the pot (after rake). If he folds half of the time we profit because we lose 38,5 on average and win 59 on average. If he calls 3/5 of the time and fold 2/5 of the time we breakeven because then we lose 47,40 on average and win 47,20 on average.

So is he calling 60% of the time or less? And if he is, and we are certain of this riversituation by the turn, is betting the turn with the intention of the river not hugely +EV?

What about range merging? Should we be betting Ax the same or in a different way?

i play and bet AA/Ax like this, normally i either bet the flop and give up if he calls or i bet the turn the same and bet the river bigger than you did (~100)

i think you gotta dbl barrel here once you bet the turn because the best hand he can have usually here is JJ-KK, unlikely he checks AA/AQ/whatever to you twice. i think the bigger river bet is needed to make him sure that hes beat and unwilling to call with an underpair

i think if u gonna bluff this then just start it on the flop.......a 2barrel on the flop and turn would be a better bluff line then pot controlin the flop then 2barrelin turn and river.....

ur def behind his range on the flop.....so either shut it down or start firing now(flop)

if by gutsy you mean dumb, then yeah. villain has a bluff catcher and prob won't fold because he played it weak

prob fold pf tbh, just check turn go to sd

I think its a good bluff since this is how you would play Ax. With that said, I still feel like you're going to get looked up a lot by KK/QQ.

Exactly. Why? Because they will often call twice with QQ.

Nielso, if you are firing two shots at this to get him to fold a better pp, you need to start on the flop and then fire turn. Trouble is he might be checking an ace on the flop and then you are handing him $$$.

So either bet flop bet turn, or check it down.

fire closer to 100 on riv and it's perfect. could fire the same two barrels for same result on flop though. I guess you really know he's worried when he checks twice, but i think as played you need a bigger riv bet.

///

Sooo.. he bitched and moaned about how KK sucks and folded, amirite?

he prob folded AAA

bluff was just THAT good

I don't see why were not just checking here, your hand definitely has some showdown value and I see you getting looked up by almost any ace here.

Turn: ($45.00) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $38, BB calls $38


hi Ax or KK-QQ

nits don't fold river enough here

god i love nielso hating

---

but yeah i dont like this, i think he looks you up a ton especially since he played it so passive and you're v aggro.

I agree with whoever said fire flop/turn > fire turn/river

You need to start your bluff on the flop. Villan is likely Ax and thinks he's slow playing you on the flop, and starts thinking it's kicker versus kicker on later streets. Tricky spot and I see you getting called/losing 60% + of the time and that's a pure gut call.

same

If you're gonna do this then start it on the Flop with the present [lack of] history/reads given

Against this type of nit I would generally much rather c/r the River if he attempts a 'thin' valuebet there w/ KK/QQ/JJ.

#) We have position
#) It's not a thin valuebet here.

Preflop, I'd rather 4bet than call- you aren't playing for set value. There's not a single board you're excited about and you may get this nit to fold JJ (which more than not he's 3betting).

Again, I'd like to leverage pot-size earlier, it begins make playing oop difficult on all streets. He's going to wonder if his JJ is good. His calling range of hands that he'd 3bet oop and called one street ( any street ) here is well ahead of your bluffing range.

"So is he calling 60% of the time or less? And if he is, and we are certain of this riversituation by the turn, is betting the turn with the intention of the river not hugely +EV?"
Weighing has range to the turn of hands that are only calling one street is probably poor. I'd imagine if he's a thinking opponent or a nit, he's going to realise he's going to face a bet on the river.

"What about range merging? Should we be betting Ax the same or in a different way?"

I do think you can and should be betting Ax here as played. However, what is Ax here? AJs? AT? A2?

My mistake, we're in position. And I know it's FAR from a thin valuebet here, that's exactly what I was implying..

wow, so you're wanting to 4-bet/fold TT here or what? Why turn a great hand into a bluff?

if you want to bluff just bet the flop...more leverage and threatening imo.

there's a reason you play Ax this way..cuz QQ/KK don't fold to this action .. therefore this is bad to do w/ TT

"wow, so you're wanting to 4-bet/fold TT here or what? Why turn a great hand into a bluff?"

TT has the same value as 22-99 against a nit fwiw. We aren't being laid set odds.

wow, really? SSNL?

just a noob, ignore him

nielso, the problem is that he's checking here to induce ALOT. he's either has a hand he can't bet for value (jj-kk) or has the board completely dominated.