Fold Top Pair 3b Pot - Small Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Fold Top Pair 3b Pot

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11-28-2012 , 07:42 PM

Luck3yChance

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,901

Villain is Reg 21/17 who only folds to 3b 52% and 4b 18.5% so I am 3b for value and looking to go 3 streets. However when he jams turn I want to fold thinking he has AJ JJ 77 or AK. I doubt he would jam turn with hands like KTdd KQdd, T9dd, QTdd. Thoughts?

[converted_hand][hand_history]On Game, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #14793421

MP: $77.50 (38.8 bb)
CO: $318.25 (159.1 bb)
BTN: $197 (98.5 bb)
SB: $198 (99 bb)
Hero (BB): $276.12 (138.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

2 folds, BTN raises to $5, SB folds, Hero raises to $18, BTN calls $13

Flop: ($37) 7

(2 players)
Hero bets $22, BTN calls $22

Turn: ($81) 9

(2 players)
Hero bets $45, BTN raises to $157 and is all-in, Hero ????

11-28-2012 , 09:06 PM

MadStranger

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 452

What are your stats? Especially 3-bet pre?

11-28-2012 , 09:58 PM

Luck3yChance

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,901

I probably have 7.5% 3b I was 3b to 5b in this spot becuase of villains high 4b

11-28-2012 , 10:54 PM

ramsrunner09

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 115

Seems like if he's flatting 3 bets 30% of the time he could show up with 810dd here or j9suited here as well. Only 3 more combos of hands (810dd, j9cc, j9hh), but it's worth noting. I like a fold. I think he's more likely to raise/get in his big diamond combo draws on the flop than wait until the turn to jam. I'm guessing he 4 bets jj/ak pre most of the time, but I'm still giving him credit here for better than aq, unless you know him to be a spazz postflop.

11-28-2012 , 10:57 PM

MadStranger

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 452

As long as you don't have a crazy image, I would fold, too.

11-28-2012 , 11:06 PM

Jiro

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 167

I call.

11-29-2012 , 06:47 AM

pagepuga

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 341

I'd fold. I think he is getting good odds to call with combo draw ip and his shipping range is weighted towards value hands 2p+

11-29-2012 , 08:56 AM

KingJu1ian

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 285

I'd fold. Nothing really we beat and doubt he if bluffing here

11-29-2012 , 09:08 AM

TheDeadDuck

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 219

His worst shoving hands are probably 9d8d, Td9d here, whereas I think that he probably would raise them on the flop, but who knows?! Besides, everything else has you crushed and I don't think that he'd shove AT here.

11-29-2012 , 10:20 AM

#10

equalsfour?

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 3,285

fold and thank him for saving you money

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