embrace the variance or wait for a better spot? - Small Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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embrace the variance or wait for a better spot?

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11-17-2007 , 04:44 PM

1C5

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 7,530

Player is a total fish, stats of 92/15 over 100 hands. Gamble now or wait for a better spot?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($345.23)
Hero ($96.38)
BB ($101.50)
UTG ($100)
MP ($313.33)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A

, J

.
1 fold, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, MP calls $4.

Flop: ($11) 2

, 9

, 4

(2 players)
Hero bets $7.5, MP calls $308.33 (All-In), Hero ?

11-17-2007 , 04:48 PM

sightless

banned

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 15,988

better spot

11-17-2007 , 05:12 PM

Sanderrp

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 207

Please don't ever talk about cash games and waiting for better spots. There's no such thing as 'better spot' in a cashgame, only 'yet another spot'. We have bankrollmanagement for these things.

Any specific reads? Flop AF? Over 100 hands you must've seen some of his flop play.

I dislike c-bet size, by the way.

Anyway, I get it in here and expect to be ahead a large amount of the time, I don't see a typical 92/15 valueshoving a made flush here and I think our A and J outs could be good a significant part of the time as well.

11-17-2007 , 05:27 PM

pineapple888

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 13,111

Hmmm pot odds of 43%.

Less than 30% winning chances vs sets and made flushes.

Flipping vs. various pair+draw.

Is Hero ever ahead? Prob. not very often absent a read so looks like a fold, unless you pretty heavily discount strong made hands. Who knows.

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