I've been thinking about this hand, at the time I thought it was 100% standard but the more I think about it the less I like it. I go from having the initiative preflop, to losing the initiative when he b3b. At the time I thought his hands were mostly sets or FD, leaning towards FD because he played it so aggressively. In this situation we are way behind or slightly ahead:
Plain FD has ~36% equity
FD + Pair has ~43% equity
Now if rather than raising the flop we call, planning to raise non
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turns we'll have a much greater equity vs the FD plus we'll have FE back on our side. If a
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turns then we can fold to his bet, a
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may also slow him down if he had a set allowing us to get to showdown.
The downside to this line is when he's not donking with a set or a FD, but a hand like KQ, AK because we will sometimes have to fold the turn.
I don't know if my thinking is way off with all this but it just seemed like this way gives us a chance to gain a bit of EV vs the FD rather than just near flipping on the flop. Plus it gives us a chance to get out with 75bb if the draw comes in on the turn. What do you all think?
Here's the hand that got me thinking...
Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Stack sizes:
hero: $196.00
UTG+1: $442.68
CO: $252.75
Button: $31.26
SB: $207.80
BB: $514.84
Pre-flop: (
6 players) hero is UTG with A
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A
hero raises to $8,
3 folds, SB calls, BB folds.
Flop: 2
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K
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8
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(
$18, 2 players)
SB bets $20,
hero raises to $60,
SB raises all-in $180.8,
hero calls all-in $128.
Final pot: $391