Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $131.60
UTG+1: $41.50
Hero (UTG+2): $159.70
MP1: $100.00
MP2: $129.20
CO: $100.00
BTN: $78.15
SB: $116.35
BB: $166.00

MP1 posts a big blind ($1)

Pre Flop: ($2.50) Hero is UTG+2 with T T
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($10.50) 9 6 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN raises to $12, Hero raises to $30, BTN raises to $74.15 all in, Hero calls $44.15

Turn: ($158.80) 3 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($158.80) 4 (2 players - 1 is all in)


My thinking on the flop is he didn't raise pre-flop but he could still have pocket AA. My range of hands I can put him on based on flop action is AA, JJ, TT, 99, 66, 55, A9 (suited or unsuited), A6 (suited or unsuited), A5 (suited or unsuited) giving me a pot equity of 54%. Therefore, if I call his all in the pot will be $158.80 x 54% = $85.75 and it only costs me $$44.15 to call his all in, therefore, I have +EV. Is there anything wrong with my analysis or calculations as I don't see how I could have played this differently.

id cbet more (like 7$) and fold to a raise. u have stats on him? I doubt he has a5/ A6 in his PF calling range and its even less likely hed raise ur ccbet w that. As played and w/o reads just fold flop when he raises, he can easily have a higher pocket/ set/straight/two pair so stacking of is a bit too light imo and calling oop sucks even though his raise is small because u'll have to fold a huge amount of turns if he bets again.

Thanks. I can't remember his exact stats but I believe it was something like 16/13 and I can't remember his AF.

you're usually way ahead/way behind, so don't 3bet the flop.

if you choose to continue, which i wouldn't vs 16/13, call and c/shove reasonable turn

I'm never folding, probably flatting generally vs such a small raise.

if he's 16/13 i'm probably just calling the flop and folding to a reasonable turn bet.

16/13 -> lots of pp's in his range -> hits a lot of sets on this board -> small raise indicative of a set -> not interested in getting this all in -> no reason to think he's bluffing.

I'd just fold to his flop raise if that 16/13 is over a decent sample and I know nothing else.

This full ring nit has 99,66,55,87s every time here.

Terrible

Great post. Do you have a bigger word pool?

Dude, read the post.
I said i wouldn't continue vs a raise, but if, i think this line is better then c/f.
Because calling flop and folding to a turn bet is burning money, i think he's betting the turn like 90%

and calling with 60$ behind in a 34$ pot against a reasonable betsize seems bad, so c/shove is better then c/c the turn. imho.

at least i give some reasoning, so give some reasons yourself or gtfo

the point still stands that if he did choose to continue c/.r the turn over plays his hand and he isn't fully extracting value from villains bluffing range.

AGAIN: look at stack sizes. noone will bluff 35 into 100 unless they hit. but there are some ugly cards which you don't want to see.

you have totally ignored that (the main) argument.

Well for one his range is off because villains aren't raising A6s that are that nitty.

Also, saying that no one will bluff 35 into 100 is a bit of a generalization that probably isn't as true as you think since we are in the business of dealing with monkies and nits gone wild types all the time.

Dude, i never even posted "A6", i never talked about A6.

LOL i really wasn't attacking you saying he had A6 just kind of going over his OP.

I really think just fold to the first raise. Can someone else post a suspected range of villain? Why call the flop raise (even given its small size)?

in FR, I suspect that his range here puts us in bad shape. Personally, it's possible I would even fold to the 3bet preflop. If not, I think I'm calling, c/c flop and c/f turn if he bets again. If feels like a worse hand is never putting in any more action than that with us.

lol this thread is such a massive disaster