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Combo Draw vs NIT Combo Draw vs NIT

05-31-2008 , 02:05 PM
Should I just be raising here on the flop with intentions of getting it in?

Villain is a 19/6 over 500

UltimateBet $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $52.00
Hero (BTN): $129.20
SB: $99.00
BB: $152.20
UTG: $219.50
MP: $106.00

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with 5 7
2 folds, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BB calls $4, CO calls $4

Flop: ($15.50) 5 A 4 (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $11, BB raises to $27, CO folds, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($69.50) T (2 players)
BB bets $35, Hero calls $35

River: ($139.50) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
05-31-2008 , 02:06 PM
i play it the same
05-31-2008 , 02:11 PM
yeee you have no fold equity on the flop i like just calling here.
the thing is villain will usually be making a bigger bet on the turn so you'll have to fold most unimproved turn cards here a lot
05-31-2008 , 02:14 PM
Shoving flop is +EV but your line is better.
05-31-2008 , 02:16 PM
When did 19/6 become a nit..? That just means he doesn't raise much preflop. He could have all kinds of hands on the flop you still have FE against so I just try to get all the money in there.
05-31-2008 , 02:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skibbel
Shoving flop is +EV but your line is better.
+1
05-31-2008 , 04:42 PM
Flop call looks good.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt


34,650 games 0.015 secs 2,310,000 games/sec

Board: 5h As 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.185% 46.73% 00.45% 16192 157.50 { 7s5s }
Hand 1: 52.815% 52.36% 00.45% 18143 157.50 { 55-44, AQs+, A5s-A4s, KsQs, QsJs, AQo+ }

if we shove flop.........

.47(150.7 ) - .52(113.20)=70.829-58.864=+11.965

Now say we just call flop...........

On the flop we call 16 to win 53 with about 14 outs.
we need 2.5 on the flop call to make it a 0ev play.
53-(16*2.5)=+13
05-31-2008 , 06:00 PM
Assuming we have no fold equity is ridiculous. Sets aren't very likely, and its quite possible he has a pretty strong ace or fd.

We aren't getting paid with our flush outs often, in fact, he's going to have those covered quite a bit.

Shoveola.
05-31-2008 , 06:17 PM
Why does everyone think we have no FE? He could have a str8 draw of FD...
05-31-2008 , 06:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kgore
Why does everyone think we have no FE? He could have a str8 draw of FD...
because 19/6s are more likely to play draws passively
05-31-2008 , 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kgore
Why does everyone think we have no FE? He could have a str8 draw of FD...
A 19/6 is unlikely to c/r a draw. 19/6 are typically passive players, aren't they?

If he's c/r a good ace, he will certainly fold it sometimes, and talk him into call also sometimes. I think he calls AK 90%, AQ/AJ 50%, folds weaker aces most of the time.

But i think his range is heavily weighted to sets/2pairs which call always.
05-31-2008 , 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdm13
because 19/6s are more likely to play draws passively
You have no idea if this is true against this villain specifically, and furthermore, you admit that you are uncertain. It's not like villain has to fold often for shoving to become the better play.
05-31-2008 , 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
You have no idea if this is true against this villain specifically, and furthermore, you admit that you are uncertain. It's not like villain has to fold often for shoving to become the better play.
im not saying shoving flop is -ev but i think saying a 19/6 is more likely to play draws passively is like saying a 23/20 is likely to barrel at scare cards often

its not always true and is a generalization but its a good assumption barring other reads
05-31-2008 , 06:25 PM
i just got mad scurred because it says NIT in the thread title.
05-31-2008 , 06:35 PM
ike is right. send this combo draw, just call if combod with the ace vs this guy.

      
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