villan is Neroc 17/15/3. i'm sure he's a reg, he was on all my tables. button is a solid tag 19/17/3. preflop i'm putting villan on AK, AQ, 88-10s, maybe QQ. can i play this any different. his flop raise just looks so strong, can i ever fold?

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $95.90
BTN: $147.55
Hero (SB): $165.70
BB: $100.00
UTG: $62.20

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with J J
2 folds, BTN raises to $3, Hero raises to $11, BB calls $10, 1 fold

Flop: ($25.00) 5 7 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $18, BB raises to $42, Hero raises to $154.70 all in, BB calls $47 all in

Turn: ($203.00) Q (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($203.00) 9 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Im def not folding there

I think this is totally fine and you will see 88-TT here most of the time. If he had a set that sucks, but I´m never ever folding JJ here.

Actually after thinking more about this hand, I think I might actually like folding better.

Villain is only100bb deep and if hes 17/15 reg, his 3bet cold-calling range is gonna be extremely tight there. I think a really high percentage of the time you get it in here, you are gonna be way behind to QQ-AA, and flipping against AKdd or AQdd occasionally, and only rarely running into 99-TT.

i don't think AA and KK are in his range as there's still another player behind to act preflop, so i think he 4bets those for sure. i do agree that AK and AQ diamonds are def possible, but with 40% of my stack committed i can't fold to those even if its 50/50.

I would flat AA and KK there all day

It's pretty close. I think I fold JJ and shove QQ.

edit: to elaborate:
A cold call of a 3bet from a straightforward player (which a 17/15/3 is) is JJ or QQ soooo often. So if you have JJ, he has QQ, and if you have QQ, he has JJ. It's like 50% of his range or so.

Unless you have a specific read here, I think folding is just terrible. QQ is like the only hand you´re behind to - you need a read to know that he wouldn´t 4bet AA/KK here. This is sooo often a medium PP that doesn´t want to 4bet and doesn´t want to fold pf nor on an undercard flop.

I fold to this raise from a 17/15 unless I have a read that he bluff raises too much.

Yeah I doubt there's a lot of worse in his flop raising range (+pf calling rnage) Fold is okay, obv extremely weak against more aggro/non-straightforward players, but against this nit I think its the best play

Edit: This being btn vs blinds, with a caller in the SB makes this more marginal... How often he opens the btn and how aware he is of his image factor in a lot here. With all this said, I don't think a lot of 99-TT comboes in his flop raising range.
88 and draws we're flipping with are however

QQ is the only hand we are behind, of course that is except for AK and AQ (we are probably about a 47% dog to these). Oh, the other problem being there are only really 4 hands in villains range and you are holding the worst of those four. So although we are "only behind one (really three) hand(s)", villains' range only really contains those hands in the first place.

Fold now, and if you notice him calling 3bets with PP when he has position then it's time to start 3betting him all the time.

I don´t think this is true at all. 88-JJ are def. within his range (without further reads) and imo it´s much more likely that he fourbets AA/KK. If he had his hand faceup and you knew he had AK/AQdd you would still be correct in going all in. Thus, QQ is the only hand you´re really behind to.

The thing is though that many people in this thread seem to think that villain has AA/KK a lot here, which may or may not be true. In my experience this is not the case.

But we have a specific read. Its 100bb deep against a tag reg. Tag regs are not cold calling a 3b for 1/9 of their stack with a medium pocket pair.


Unless the villain has already 4bet a couple times, I think it would be silly for him to do it with KK or QQ. Doing it with AA is slightly better than KK/QQ since you are gonna run into those hands with it sometimes, but I think flatting is still probably best, since you only really lose value to the hands you would have gotten action with when you hit a set.

Assuming villain is somewhat of a competent player, his 3b coldcalling range is gonna be super tight with 100bb's and you are only gonna be beating the very bottom of his range here AT BEST with JJ.

Yes, a 17/15/3 reg is never going to cold call a 3bet of 11% of his stack with two other regs in the hand with a non-premium hand.

Unless he's tilting of course, but his range here is just very very tight.

He may occasionally do it with TT but I think it's safe to exclude 99 and 88 from his range.

It's just so heavily weighted towards QQ, AdKd and AdQd. Add two TT, KK and AA combo's and the other JJ and we have 29% equity where we need 35%.

You can add some random stuff to villains range to make it 35%, but overall I see folding as the best option.

Can't fault you either way, but I like the push.

Assuming the two choices are fold or push-and-get-called, you are risking $71 in a race for $203. You're getting 2.8-1.

Let's say the likelihood of hands are about 20% each for 88, 99, TT, QQ and EE (everything else). 88 and 99 have outs, but your favored with both. TT and QQ cancel each other out. EE you're probably about 10-1 against. Based on the raise after the flop, I don't think AK or AQ are all that likely. I also don't like that move for a set, but if you bundle all those possible hands together with AA and KK, we'll give that a 20% probability, 18% of which is bad for you.

So, I'm thinking you're at least 45% to win this and that makes 2.8-1 very playable.

nice hand. you're not going to be good a lot but enough to put it in with almost a third of your stack in there already. even if he bluffraises just a small amount of time here or goes broke with TT it makes stacking off correct. Obviously you'll be shown AA/QQ a lot.

I flat this pre a lot if he isn't positionally aware, and a lot of ssnl regs aren't.

he showed up with 77. good for him. if you're reading this, please know that you are a fish. btw cold calling 77 there is terrible right 100bb deep?

If he expects BTN to call a lot I don't hate it, but it can't be that good. BTN calling with 77 would be pretty terrible if BB folded.

Don´t secondguess yourself lledney, you played this fine.

pretty marginal either way. against a 17/15/3 unless you've been beating up on him terribly I think you can get away from this as played.

I might be inclined to check the flop and see a cheap showdown as I don't think he's likely to bet his overcards etc.

i would fold this so fast. he could've flatted on the BTN with a lot of hands (mainly mid pairs that have now made a set, AA/KK/QQ sometimes, suited connectors, etc). You're even flipping against a hand like AKdd, and the only hands in his range you're ahead of when he raises flop are 88/99.

why? i don't think its great either, but i 3bet this button a decent amount of time. he has position, he doesn't have to stack off with it. why terrible for button to call 3bet IP?

ps. button being in the hand should give him more reason to fold 77 as button is very agressive and is likely to push this preflop, no?

you can probably fold vs. this opponent. i doub the's going to have enough semibluffing hands (diamonds/88) to make this profitable.

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