Even if I shouldn't raise, how do I prove that I shouldn't raise mathematically?


Btn - Aggressive


$1.00/$2.00 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

Hero (BB) ($275)
UTG ($212)
UTG+1 ($427)
CO ($149)
Button ($185)
SB ($152)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, 3
2 folds, CO calls $2, Button raises to $81 fold, , Hero calls $6, 1 fold

Flop: ($19) 5, 7, A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $21, Hero raises to $70, Button raises to $162, Hero folds

Total pot: $251

Trololol

You're going to need to provide a lot of reads and statistics regarding the opponent in this hand before you get a legitimate response. Read-less, you have absolutely no reason to raise this flop w/ your hand and when you have no reason to do something, don't do it.

If the guy doesn't have an ace, I thought he would fold out most of his range. Therefore thuggish, what size should I make my raise? Lets say that my opponent would bet almost any pair including most draws including any backdoor draws. I don't want do delineate his entire range in fine detail, but you get the idea.

What am I repping? An ace.

What range would he fold? Less than a pair of aces.

What size should I make my raise????

Will that size raise even get a fold????

I feel like I'm responding to a troll post, but in case you're being serious.

Obviously most will often fold w/o an Ace in this spot, but what makes you think he is betting w/o an Ace here? You're basically raising here "hoping" he doesn't have an Ace w/o any reason to further support your "hopes".

I plugged the information I have into CardrunnersEV. My EV on this play is +0.08. I make eight cents everytime I make this raise. That's assuming my ranges are correct and my opponent will respond the way I hope he will? But I think .08 cents is not a big enough edge to risk a raise. There are too many other variables I can't calculate in this situation.

Yep confirmed troll

Now I think I know where I made the mistake. I didn't consider my opponent's bet size on the flop. I should put my opponent on a much tighter range on the flop. If the bet were smaller, I could widen his likely range and his folding range would also widen. In this situation, my opponent likely holds top pair or better because he bets just over the pot. Thanks....

In this situation, I failed to consider the correct range for my opponent, and I failed to consider the size of his bet. I was raising based on the assumption that my opponent was c-betting with most of his opening range on the button.

However, preflop he was isolating a limper and then on the flop he overbet the pot. Most likely my opponent is betting with a much tighter range than I originally assumed. If he was betting his entire opening range on the flop, then I could profitably raise and fold out most of his range. In this case I raised when my opponent didn't even have much of a folding range.

If I want to bluff in this spot, I need to get better at putting my opponent on a range of hands. I know I can't just call a button raise with pocket threes and expect to flop a set every time or somehow get to showdown with the best hand; I have to bluff at the pot to make calling in the big blind profitable. So next time I decide to bluff, I need to be more sure that my opponent has a wide enough range, so my raise will get more folds. That's the best I can explain it for now.