villain 25/20/AF 4.8/cb 77/turn cb 49/cr 11/river agg 25% - 1k hands


havn't seen villain take this line before.


Hero 27/21/fvcbet 50% - kinda aggro

effective stack $54.00

are we good on the river more than 25% of the time here?




DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $209.77
Hero (BTN): $100.00
SB: $101.69
BB: $66.00
UTG: $108.50
MP: $99.04

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with 3 3
2 folds, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) Q J 3 (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $6.00, Hero calls $6, BB folds

Turn: ($21.50) 4 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $16.50, CO raises to $37, Hero calls $20.50

River: ($95.50) 5 (2 players)
CO bets $71.62, Hero?

Raise flop!!

should have mentioned that BB is a fish.

raise flop depends on how fishy bb is, but raising is not going to be a mistake since CO's cbet should be tighter
your turn bet sizing is pretty ridiculous, 12$

how is my turn betsize ridiculous? I think your pretty wrong.

OTT
How weak do you bet and how strong do you fold to the c/r?

I'm leaning towards a fold, still thinking though

btw I think turn sizing is also a bit much(I'd go 13.5) considering that he shouldn't be c/c that much with his aggf

i think the turnbet is ok. betting small is gonna look suspicious unless its your standard and he knows that. as played im folding the river. not expecting a lot of 100nl regs to have a bluff like that in them.

If you only raised flop none of this would happen, so just raise flop and get rid of that fps.

As he said BB is a fish so flattin is by far the best option here. If u raise on the flop, u are never doin this as a bluff and any decent reg will lay down any 1pair hands to you and u blow out the fish aswell. By callin the flop reg is forced to keep firin his top pair/overpair hands for value on the turn especially if the fish calls the flop aswell and u get max value. Depending on the turns and fish i might be goin for call down mode all the way. Its nice to have strong hands in ur flatting range, so regs just cant auto 3barrel u when u just call the flop.

it is not fps to flat the flop here with a fish left to act. in fact, it is smart to simply flat with a fish left to act.

I have no problem with calling the flop. A raise has some merit, but it is nowhere near the no brainer some of you are advocating.

this is really paranoid.

def fold river, and raise flop with aggro image

I still think turn betsize is good because people tend to x/call these turns a bit, much more than they x/raise them anyway.
Anyone else have thoughts on turn sizing?

I think you bet 16.5$ as value so the question has to be: given the board and the opponent's range, how much do you think he'll call? 16.5$ into 21$ looks pretty strong imo, and the villain c/r looks even stronger. Raise flop vs. fish. Fold river.

Calling flop is good, being results oriented is not.

Given stakes i think fold. If you fold 33 you're almost never calling though because the board blocks some flushes and you don't have all JJ/QQ combos either.
If you think he realizes all that you shouldn't fold. But he probably doesn't...

Whats the worst flush we call the river with then?

I like a flat call if the initial raiser is a decent player at Nl200+. Otherwise, I'd probably raise and expect him not to fold a decent top pair/reasonable draw. I also think that a fish will put money in with a draw/top pair hand regardless of the action.

I def just call here PF with 33. I would most likely always reraise on the flop to 16$. This prevents the BB from getting proper odds at drawing to a flush or pretty good odds at an open ender. So i think the BB will most likely fold and the CO raiser will prolly fold if he completely missed the flop and call if he has a hand or a draw. Unfortunately, we just called here with a set on a pretty drawy board. As played, I would def bet the turn for about 13.5 to 16.5. Since the CO raiser check raised you here, you definitely have to be concerned now and i think he prolly led out with a fd on the flop. Lastly, his reraise was 20.5 more OTT and that gives you call 20.5 to win 70 so your getting about 3.5 on 1 on your money and your about a 3.5 to 1 underdog to boat up here. So your even money to boat here with implied odds if you hit. As played, i would call his check raise here and prolly fold to his river shove.

just raise the damn flop. obviously we call here on QJ3r or a similarly dry board, but on QJ3dd it's not like the fish (or reg) is going to put in a ****ton of money on the turn unless he gets there.

i mean sure he could make a mistake if he turns two pairs or has K9 and turns a king or something, but he's probably not folding Qx to a raise in front, and he's certainly not folding draws to a raise in front

literally half the deck here makes us uneasy. any diamond, A/K/T/9... 22 cards or 47% percent of the deck that could beat us or kill our action. On some of them fish makes a bigger mistake, but it's more likely we end up making a bigger mistake on a lot of them when we're 3way to the turn

I fully understand your logic here, but the right play is to raise the flop. The fish will cold call the raise with whatever he was going to call villain's cbet with. Also, considering villain cbet 3 way with a fish in the pot when the flop is this wet, he probably has a hand that will not fold to a flop raise and possibly stack off. Plus, if you just call, a ton of bad turn cards could come off.

this pretty much, well put.