I want you to know I'm primarily posting my thoughts here and hands in addition. Sometimes decision might be good but for bad reasons, so please focus not on decisions made but on the question "why". If I don't post any stat that means I didn't use it in this particular situation. If you think I should had been please say so.



Villain opens on SB 71 percent over 12k hands and folds to resteals 66% so that means I probably have to defend all my suited hands and the worst of these hands I want in my 3bet-bluff range. In addition he has now 44(27)/71(7) folds to cbets in 3bet pots OOP.

On the flop I'm playing mostly for protection here against bunch of broadways. Sometimes I like to xb here if villain really like to raise cbets but in this case he has only 4% x/r so betting is better imo to have just easier decisions (less chance to make mistakes).

On the turn I can't see him calling with worse except some backdoors FD broadways from flop and honestly I'm scared and want to pot control. On the river I'm confused. He is doing that for value with 77-TT, A9o-AQo, A2s-AQs (I assumed 6% 4bet pre SBvsBB is JJ+and AK for value). Now, I'm pretty bad at assuming when some1 is capleble to turn his SDv into a bluff when doesn't. First I look at bet vs missed cbet on R OOP in 3bet pot. Pretty small sample (6 situations) and only 1 bet. So I looked on bet vs missed cbet on R OOP-57%(35) and agg freq R 28. After that I wanted to fold but I re-evaluted and looked on W$WSF-50. For me above 48 means he can fight for pots better that others. I also realized that I really don't have any hands I played this way better then this one so made crying call.

Enjoy your critisise!

He doesn't have enough air on a rainbow flop and he's not valuebetting worse.

I don't think he is vbetting worse thats why I named this hand bluffcatching. And don't you think because of such a dry board he can has more floats coz he knows I'm cbetting here almost 100% of my range?

@edit
In addition I must say I don't like posts like this. River decision was not the only decision I had to make. What do you think about preflop 3bet? Flop cbet? Turn xb? Stats I used? Is my thought process is wrong in some place? I spend time to write all of this for no reason and your post in rush was disrespectfull don't you agree?

I didn't bother with the streets prior to the river, because they're not very interesting when it comes to what options you have etc. You can 3bet, flat or fold, you can bet or check flop, and turn sort of plays itself.

I specifically mentioned your riverplay, because it's the only noticable mistake in the hand. In my opinion I managed to fit a pretty decent/explanatory critisism into one line of posting. Sorry to disappoint if you expect people to write an essay on simple spots.

In regards to your line I don't love the 3bet preflop - I'd rather fold. If this fits in your game plan for balancing 3bets then it's fine.

Betting flop is standard as we do need to protect our hand at this point vs broadways and other suited connectors that villain calls preflop and missed with. When called I expect villain to have KQ,KJ, 66-99, Ax.

So once called we should check back the turn since villains range is one which we are value cutting ourselves against for the most part.

Based on the fact that once you are called and check back the turn your line looks like some hand that missed the flop and tried to take it down but is now giving up. This means that villain will perceive all of his range to have showdown value including K highs. He can also comfortably bet his pocket pairs for value based on your line on such a dry board. So since villain will check his K highs and bet everything else for value, you should fold the river as you effectively beat nothing in his range other than random floats which I doubt he will be showing up with often enough for you to call 11.47 into 17 profitably.

Basically this.

Naa, don't need essay. This explanation is fair enough. Thank your for your post.

Turn was too simple for you I get it (but not for all so next time it would be nice of you to just say it). But I must say I can't understand why you think I can do 3bet pre just like call or fold and bet flop just like xb. I strongly believe after 12k hands we can easily choose which line is better, am I wrong? And back to my previous question why you assumed he don't want to float us on such a dry board? Maybe you think ppl are more likely to float on wet board? (just in case i'm not ironic. I'm posting here to play better poker)

3 bet pre seems too small to make villain fold IP

I mean pre seems like spew to me. Fair enough i agree you can defend/3bet significantly wider vs this guy but 52s is taking the concept a little too far. Your RIO will increase far too much.

It's my std sizing 3bet IP



Ya it looks crazy but in reality which hands do u like to 3bet as a bluff vs him? This is actually one of the best hands I can do it with coz the others are in my calling range.

I need to say something about floats coz only his floats doing this river call profitable. He opens freaking 71% so he is with 24%range on the flop excluding top which 4bet/call. He is raising like nothing so his strategy is not about doing something stupid on scary boards. Then WTF is he doing with the rest of his hands? It looks like he wants to float much on dry boards and have less fold to cbet in this particular situation so actually it makes river call very easy. We need to be good only 29% of the time.

How about a raise? We can still have QQ, KK surely..

BLINDWAR. Its problem.

There's plenty of people who come here just to read the forums are will surely enjoy your well written post, but you are not entitled to lengthy responses from other users. Also, just making a post like you did helps you clarify your own thought process so I don't think it's a waste of time even if it doesn't lead to a thorough discussion.

As to the hand, I would call on the river, I feel like this is a flop where your opponent can easily float various backdoor draws and may even turn some of his queen high / king high hands into bluff thinking "oh well I'm at the bottom of my range, gotta bet for balance" (this is what I would do as villain). Could be that I'm wrong here and you want to explotingly fold river, but if we fold this hand OTR we are very unbalanced.

I like your preflop 3-bet, it's definitely a good idea to use suited crap like this for bluffs as you'll want to call so much stuff here that it leaves very little left for bluffing to balance your value 3-bets. I like the bet on the flop because it protects your hand, getting him to fold 24% equity is pretty good for us and we can easily get called by worse (K-hi Q-hi) , and we rep plenty of air. The turn I think is a checkback because by now he can fold so many of his worse hands unexploitably.

You have plenty of hands that c-bet and then give up completely, right? So it can't be that bad to have a gameplan where you bluffcatch this hand, I doubt villain can exploit you here, I think the only way he could was if he overbet big and you always bet Ax on the turn. The general principle I follow in poker is that the more information I have on my opponent the more willing I am to play exploitingly / exploitatively, the less info, the more I tend to towards balanced gameplans or gameplans that exploit the tendencies of the population in general.

pre 100% fine

as is the rest of the hand

I think in order to make a better determination about pre it would be nice to have villain's 4bet stats.

But yea in general opening and then folding that much seems like you can 3bet really light with about whatever you want.

Edit: Provided you are somewhat proficient post flop.