I cant get the HH cuz I keep getting an error so I will try to recreate it. Villain is a semi-aggro regular, thats all I can say about him.

fold, fold, fold, CO opens to $3.50, Hero 3 bets to $10 with Q8, fold, fold, CO calls

FLOP A 3 5

Hero bets 2/3, villain calls

TURN 3

Hero bets 50-55%, villain calls

RIVER K

Hero shoves for 62-65% pot, villain does w/e not important

My thinking is this. When he calls flop and turn, he either has Ax or an underpair. If he has underpair, he definitely folds to K river. If he has AJ-AQ, he probablly folds on the K river as well. He can only really call with AA/KK andAK, and both of those he 4 bets pre flop the majority of the time.

he has Ax a big percentage of the time(people dont float ace high flops too lightly) and obv is never folding it

i dont see why river K changes anything. youre not value shoving KQ. in any case, i think he's folding an underpair on the turn, unless he's suspicious of you.

id also probably bet less on the flop. A53 rainbow, villain either has a hand he's continuing with or not, no need to bet more than half pot imo.

naw. people dont fold trips in 3b pots. i still am confused why you think the river K changes a ton. sure now he loses to K's full, which is only 3 more combos. doubt that changes his decision in any way.

after villain calls turn, id shut down.

What is your 3bet %? What are your barreling tendencies? What is villain's opening range/flatting 3bet range/4betting range?

You would have to be a pretty big nit to get someone to fold an ace here, and there aren't many pocket pairs in people's ranges flatting a 3bet in this position to begin with.

Also - bet less on flop.

I will ask you another question. What does villain beat now, besides a pure bluff? If you have AJ or AQ here, you are only beating a pure bluff, I would not be v betting worse.

I guess I should just stick to thinking that most people are brain dead and will call with any Ax cuz its "3 bet pot lol i got top pair cant fold"

im pretty sure nobody has ever folded trips in a 3bet pot on non 4straigth/flush.

um

whether or not you should call if you are in villains shoes and have Ax is a completely different discussion.

from experience though, people are not folding trip aces in a 3b pot. when you call pre with Ax, this is basically the board you are looking for. and with 1 A left in the deck, and only a few legit full houses (almost none) its a rare reg who finds the fold button.

one more thing to consider, you only have 65% PSB left. even more reason youre gonna get looked up here by pretty much every Ax. maybe if you have a nitty dymanic and he's facing closer to a full PSB on the river would you get a fold.

more reason to bet smaller on the flop if youre planning on going all the way with your hand. plan ahead.

Yes, villain beats bluff only, but your range includes more bluff hands and little value hands. It makes his call profitable

results of hand?

if you are 3ballng Q8s and tripling this board run out, than he is obviously correct to call with an ace on the river. and how many regs even give a **** what you rep?

+1 to flop sizing being too big on this texture. 1/2 pot is generally going to be better.

wow i feel dumb now lol. turn is 3, not another A!

I will post results after discussion about the correct board, which was A 3 5 3 K

to quote the great Gaszzzz

ummmmm

he is not folding an ace on that board run out either, he loses to AK and sets and chops a bunch

So how is this a good spot to call if you are villain? Calling to lose or chop is terrible.

i still think its a bad spot to bluff. after calling 2 barrels, villain has so many aces in his range. probably isnt happy calling a river shove, but i would still expect an ace to call. loses to very few combos. splits a lot, catches a bluff now and again.

also, am i right in assuming you no longer have KK in your range when you bet the turn on A533 board? not that this changes villains decision, but you have such a small value range that beats an ace here. AA/AK...and an occasional weird hand like A5s/55.

folding a split would be a pretty big mistake, especially if you can occasionally show up with Q8.

It actually isn't. Calling Ax OTR vs. a range of AA/AK/33/55/KK/AJ/AQ is only a slightly -EV play. When you consider that you don't have all combos of AK+ (you probably don't 3 bet 33/55 100% of the time pre, or bet flop/turn with KK) then it becomes a +EV call.

And even this assumes that your bluffing frequency is 0%, which is quite obviously not going to be true CO vs blinds. You may argue that you won't be betting as many as 14 combos [AJ/AQ] of Ax OTR, but it's still going to be really hard to construct a realistic range that villain would be correct to fold Ax against.

Because, if he thinks you are bluffy/ over aggressive / spewy then you may well be bluffing.. which indeed you were.

You tipple barrel here with a hand that cannot pick up equity, so you cant say that you dont bluff spots like these often because you would have given up on the turn when you didnt pick up any equity.

TPGK against an agro guy who regularly tipple barrels is the nuts, so his call is good.

i doubt he has KK either.

not many regs 2 barrel KK on Axx, blank turns.

edit: whoops, see you wrote he probably doesnt bet flop/turn with KK>

Dude never folds Ax in this spot because of the paired board. It is too easy for him to talk himself into a call because you could be shoving to get him off a chop.

If the turn was an 8 or something i might like it a little better, but even then, his OOP 3b flat range is so heavily skewed towards AQ that i think he calls way too often. Also completely disregarding AK is a mistake. Lot's of regs flat in this spot pre (i don't agree with it).

would you ever fold an ace in this spot? I sure wouldn't. Turn cbet is fine but stop there.

you can have like 6 AK and 1 AA for better value combos, just about everything else is a chop or you are bluffing. if you are 3betting Q8s you probably don't have a 3% 3bet, so i don't see why he would fold an ace ever. and no one calls a 3bet 100 BB eff OOP with Ax to fold when they make a pair, i don't get how you have 3k posts and don't know this, do you never play or haven't played for some time?

Last week not so much, but I still played a few hours.

Eithe way, im not a maniac, my 3 bet% on the new site is like 6% so which is why if I was villain I wouldnt call 3balls with AJ/AQ.