Hey Guys,
I like to 3bet Axss or Kxss deep against good and bad players as a thin bluff/ thin value raise, as we can make the nuts with a flush or flop an ace or king to beat any pocket pair. However, I am unsure as to what our best plan is on the turn if we have the NFD and our flop cbet got called.
I am wondering what you think of firing the 2nd barrel in the following three scenarios, assuming we've been 3betting a fair amount but haven't showed down anything out of line yet, and villains are competent if not great regulars (like breakeven-2 BB/100 kind of guys). Do we have enough fold equity and pot equity to barrel? Do we ever get anyone to lay down 99-JJ? How do the various boards affect whether or not it is a good 2nd barrel situation? And finally, if we do barrel the turn and brick out on the river, is it ever a good idea to shove? Thanks for the responses!


Scenario 1: Hero (SB) 200 BB
Villain (CO) 200 BB

Hero has A7

Preflop:2 folds, Villain raises to 3.5 BB, BU calls, Hero raises to 14 BB, BB folds, Villain calls, BU folds

Flop (33.5 BB): 562

Hero bets 25 BB, Villain calls

Turn (83.5 BB) 5624
Hero???


Scenario 2:
Hero (BU) 200 BB has K8
Villain (MP) 200 BB

1 fold, Villain raises to 4 BB, CO calls, Hero raises to 14 BB, 2 folds, Villain calls, CO folds

Flop (33.5 BB) 664
Villain checks, Hero bets 25 BB, Villain calls

Turn664T
Villain checks, Hero???


Scenario 3:
Hero (CO) 200 BB has AT
Villain (MP) 200 BB

1 fold, Villain raises to 4 BB, Hero raises to 15 BB, 3 folds, Villain calls

Flop (31 BB): 562
Hero bets 24 BB, Villain Calls

Turn (79 BB): 562K

Villain checks, Hero???

i would bet all 3.

Sizing isn't too great either if you are 3betting hands like this, then your cbets should prob be smaller too. I probably unload the cannon in all of these examples, but I also think your flop sizing can be smaller to set up for better turn/river sizes. If I check one, it would be hand 2

So you think we get folds often enough to make this profitable?

Hey Buff thanks for the response, are you saying my preflop sizing and flop sizing are both off? If so what sizes would you suggest instead and why? I realize my preflop 3bets are a little large, the reason for this is that so far I have rarely been getting 4bet bluffed often enough that the extra dead money I get when they fold to cbet compensates, although I could be wrong about that

I mainly mean post. Pre could possibly be smaller if you 3bet a bunch, but it isn't too bad either way. Flop I'd probably bet like 55%-60% pot on all of these, as boards are dry and a similar range should react the same to both sizings. Then on turn and river you can barrel more frequently and have a good sized stack on the river to make bigger hands fold, whereas some hands that commit half their stack w/ certain hands based on ur sizing just won't fold river. Make them call 60-70% pot on the river and they'll crumble, esp @ SSNL where everyone is scared deep

3 shoves

First, raise more preflop. Take case 1, you have a pfr and a cold-caller. You´re oop. I´ll make it 5x-6x in this spot, not 4x (giving him irresistable 2:1 in position or in hand #2 even 2.2:1).

Then for postflop - some rough thoughts b/c I´m at work and did not think about it too thoroughly:

#1: You caught the OESD (most likely to the nuts) besides your fd, so you can profitably 2nd-barrel. If you get called and miss you should strongly consider shoving the river b/c Villain nearly never has a strong hand in this spot and you rep AA/KK pretty much.

#2: It´s close as the board is paired but Villain might have the NFD himself, so barreling and bluff-shoving the river becomes even more of an option.

#3: I would barrel the turn to rep AK but probably won´t shove the river in case you miss b/c you won´t get enough folds in case Villain calls the turn.

- Tack -

In the first scenario I would defenitely not 2nd barrel. I don't see him folding any pocket. If you like variance I would consider a c/r all in. I think this could create enough fold equity against medium pockets that he simply wanted to end the hand with and combined with your good pot equity I think this could be a very profitable move. On the other hand if he checks behind you cannot bluff anymore but on the other hand you have gotten a free card with plenty of possible outs whats also a great result.

I would not 2nd barrel scenario 2. I don't think the T is too much of a scarecard that he would fold 88 or 99. It is also possible that villain is sitting on JJ or QQ for potcontrol.

In scenario 3 I would 2nd barrel. And if he calls, I would even consider a 3rd barrel on the river. It is one thing to call a 2nd barrel with a pocket when an obvious scarecard hits, but to call a riverbet with JJ-99 in this scenario is pretty hard, because he could easily be paying off AK foolishly.

bump

bet turn, shove river?

all 3 of those hands are great for bet bet bet.

given those 3 boards, any T+ turn card and obv any nut card are excellent to bet on. and nut on.

so the consensus seems to be be, betting turn AND shoving river whether or not we get there is the best play, especially if we size our bet on the flop better?

if these were more like 120-140 deep i would like this bet sizing much more so that you could just shove the turn with a slight overbet

DEFINITELY betting 3, 1st one I dont mind a c/r or a bet, and the 2nd one is kinda bitch since I dont see him folding very often at all with any PP he flats OOP this deep.

I think I agree that the 2nd one is a check behind. The other thing to keep in mind is that if we get there now we are getting stacked by TT

id barrel all of them, but maybe not 3-barrel them depending on a million things.

Andrew

I'd bet all 3

I would cbet a lot smaller on all 3