Hi,

I would really appreciate any feedback on this hand. I play a lot of poker, but really didn’t know what to do in this hand.

First some background. The guy on my right is a madman. I’d been playing the table for a couple of hours and had got up to $800; largely due to a preflop raising war which ended with madman calling preflop allin for $285 with 55 vs my QQ.

The villain in this hand is medium tight / medium aggressive. He often folds on the flop; but when he plays he will frequently raise, or check-raise. I’d doubled him up in the hand immediately prior to this one. In that case I had 77 – the flop came 78K. He checked, I bet, he smalled raised, I called. The turn was another K; which doomed me, as it turned out he had 88.

Anyhow here’s the hand:


Texas Hold'em $0.5-$1 NL (real money)

Seat 4: madman ($40.70 in chips)
Seat 5: Kamawoop Tea [ A,A ] ($566.15 in chips)
Seat 6: YYYY ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 8: XXXX ($131.10 in chips)
Seat 10: medium tight/medium agro man ($383.80 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
Kamawoop Tea posts blind ($0.50), YYYY posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP
XXXX folds, medium tight/medium agro man bets $4, madman folds, Kamawoop Tea bets $12, YYYY folds, medium tight/medium agro man calls $8.50.

FLOP [board cards J,5,3 ]
Kamawoop Tea bets $18, medium tight/medium agro man bets $80,

Now what? Villian has $291 left, there is currently $122 in the pot...

Of course it would play itself, if we weren't both fairly deep-stacked.

shove

given the size of his raise I'd put aggroman on a FD/combodraw (he makes it big for maximum FE), like A2s or something, or a set (but he has shown that he raises those small so as not to lose customers). I think you can call and evaluate here, or call and shove a bricked turn (not 4, 2, J, not club)? He's OOP, so he'll have a hard decision on a bricked turn. If he openshoves a bricked turn snapcall.

Given that you are deep I'd definitely advocate a larger 3bet PF
As played I'd probably fold here never

Monk, firstly he's not aggroman (he's fairly middle of the road), secondly I've got the A clubs, so the only real draw I can see him having is KQ.

fair enough, you called him "medium tight/medium agro man", I shortened it to aggro man

I would still call and evaluate, I think. You're too deep to risk stacking off to a set and you have a pretty good redraw to the nut flush.

I didn’t call - I either folded, or shoved.

I don’t see how the hand will be any easier to play on the turn if I do just call; or how I’d get much added value.

With the nut flush draw, I’m likely committed even if a club turn comes, so what would it achieve?

If I was villain, there’s a chance I would be check-raising the flop here with medium pairs (but probably not from 18 -> 80). I’d make it 50 – 60 with 77 - TT. The size of his raise confused me a lot.

Maybe instead he’d keep the pot smaller with 2nd pair, or any viable Jack.

I think his most likely hands are AA (not that likely), KK, QQ or set.

Bigger PF...idk post flop....prob lean towards folding. I think stack to pot ratio is too high to commit with a one pair hand here.

without better reads i don't think this is a good place to stack off i agree, but is folding really an option on this board?

if he is a middle of the road player are bottom sets even in his range? i suppose maybe because he's this deep he's more inclined to be flatting 3bets with small pairs.

do you have any info as to how he got his stack op?

there's also the possibility of calling, you know
why would this be shove or fold?

Imagine this is a 2/5 $ pot that was just raised instead of 3bet (should be about the same potsize and SPR on flop). Would anyone tell OP to shove or fold? I think not.

"do you have any info as to how he got his stack op?"

It's in the original post. I'd doubled him in the hand immediately prior to this one.

Generally he seems fairly decent, if a little too by-the-book; this raise was outta-line from his previous plays.

I don't think you'll be committed if another club comes. 122 in the pot and 300 $ behind? Suppose he bets smallish when he hits the nuts with his KcQc (like when he made a small raise with his set in the earlier hand), to like 90 $ or so. That makes a 300 $ pot on the river with 200 $ behind for both of you. You also don't know if he won't check behind his set because he puts you on a FD and thinks you'll checkraise him. There's a lot of assumptions in your reasoning.

You may be right. I'm comfortable with the money involved, but maybe not with the dynamics of poker when it's this deep-stacked.

Which brings me to the preflop raise question. Do I really wanna raise to $40, a tenth of his stack, to avoid odds of him having a set? AA is still by far the best hand, surely that would often just be wasting the hand?

so did he have Jacks or the flush draw?

I'll tell you soon. I'm still waiting for all the help I can get on this one.

But I'll give you a teaser, as you asked so directly. He had neither of those.

i would guess 55/4c6c/6c7c/KcKx/QcQx.

if he didn't have a FD and you got stacked by 53o that's a cooler and he's probably a member of ITH

It was exceedingly annoying. Up to $800 then back down to $180 in 2 hands.

Hat's off to villian, he played the hand very well in my opinion. He had set 3's. Hand just prior he'd put in a small raise with his set, and as I'd just doubled him, I was clearly itching to get my money back. I shoved (I hear your arguments Monk), but I still think this is pretty much shove or fold.

Turn: 7 clubs to give me hope.

River: 5d.

Grrrr!

-- If you just call, how would you play the rest of the hand Monk?


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Also fairly sick 888 vs 777 then another set to crack my aces in 2 hands. That's why I'm seeking reassurrance, rather than playing poker just now

Assuming you are not allowed to call, is this an insta-shove?

Not at all. If I'm not allowed to call, I'm folding 100%. Furthermore, if I'm calling it's only because we have position.

In general, putting 400BBs in with one pair is rarely correct. Certainly not here and against this guy who we have nothing solid reads on.

But surely the fact that he had a set last hand, makes it far less likely that he's also got a set this hand?

we're OOP; I wrote somewhere in one of my replies that we're in position, but that's not true

and I agree: if we can't call here, I would fold rather than shove

I did have a slight read. I don’t think he’s got a draw. I’ve seen villain raise big draws before, but am not sure he’d have got involved preflop with most of the feasible draws given this situation.

I think his most likely hand is a set, but maybe AA -> QQ (he’ll probally call those). Maybe a medium pocket pair, not sure if I gain much by flat-calling (just give him another chance to hit). Can't rule out a raise with AJ/KJ ?/QJ/JT either.

I thought a set was his most likely holding, judging the hands individually. However, there is a wider range of hands that I beat. I’m still not sure.

The fact that you held Ac reduces a big part of his range
You had position, so it isn't bad to flat and re-evaluate on turn (At least better than shoving IMO)
I would fold if we can't call since we are never far ahead of his raising range

I was outta position; he check raised me; but villian c/r or fold alot.

Clearly in hindsight folding wouldn't have been a bad play; i'm beginning to think it what probally just the correct play full stop.

I still don't see what calling gets me? There are some (but in my opinion) not enough turn cards that make my decision easier and villians more difficult.