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A7s flop play A7s flop play

05-31-2008 , 10:44 AM
BTN - tight. Didn't play a hand in 40 hands so I put him on something strong, SB is a fish. Fold preflop yada yada I was bored.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

SB: $133.25
Hero (BB): $114.50
UTG: $153.75
MP: $91.30
CO: $117.95
BTN: $173.60

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with 7 A
3 folds, BTN raises to $4, SB calls $3.50, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($12.00) 6 8 5 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, BTN raises to $24, SB folds, Hero raises to $54

So is he folding that overpair ? (We got ~40% equity against his flop raising range)
05-31-2008 , 10:54 AM
i dont think hes folding here. tight players dont wait for aces to fold them on a 8 high flop. thats why its easy to own them with small pairs when we hit sets.
05-31-2008 , 11:14 AM
Why bet the flop here? You are drawing with most likely one other person in the pot, so you want to draw cheaply.
05-31-2008 , 11:17 AM
just fold the flop...
05-31-2008 , 11:23 AM
Played a bit with numbers and shoving is neutral EV if he calls 100% of the time (put his range on 88+) so I guess it's worth a shot.
05-31-2008 , 11:45 AM
assume 10 outs (8 oesd, 2 partial ace outs)
assume 0 FE we're 40% to make our hand, 60% to lose
.40 (130)- .60(102)=52-61.2=$-9.2

so with no FE this doesn't seem like a great push, that said its pretty extreme to assume so. Whats the minimum amount of FE that we need for this push to make sense........

x=the number of times out of 100 villain folds preflop
y=the number of times out of 100 villain calls preflop

x+y=100
$44x + .4y (130)- .6y(102)=0
solve for x
44x+ 0.4(100-x)(130)-0.6(100-x)(102)=0
44x+(40 -0.4x)(130) - ( (60-0.6x)(102))=0
44x+5200 - 52x - 6120 +61.2x=0
53x=920
x=17

so you need 17% FE against his flop raising range to make this shove work.
05-31-2008 , 11:47 AM
Villains, especially bad villains don't fold overpairs here. You even said that he hasn't played any of 40 hands so do u expect him to give up when you actually have something?

When villain c/r the flop, just fold it. 3 bet is just bad imo unless you're willing to get it in badly.
05-31-2008 , 11:48 AM
Giving him a flop raising range of 55+, 55,66,77,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA
Do you think we have a 17% FE there?
05-31-2008 , 12:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HoldEmNewby
Giving him a flop raising range of 55+, 55,66,77,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA
Do you think we have a 17% FE there?
Villain was tight, didn't know if he was the type to see monsters etc. My guess is that it's close.

Personally given action I'm usually folding my overpairs unless I have a read, but oh well - some EV bucks down drain, probably deserved that flaming.

      
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