300 bb's deep - Bold move on the turn - line check - Small Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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300 bb's deep - Bold move on the turn - line check

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10-13-2008 , 03:52 AM

primate

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,776

Villain was reg running 18/14/3.5, cbet flop 83%, cbet turn 84% over significant number of hands.

I was taggish and both had been active but not really tangled. I had just won a big pot with a solid hand.

Thoughts please.

Party Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $105.24
BB: $288.32
Hero (UTG): $309.10
MP: $101.50
CO: $100
BTN: $100

Pre-Flop: Q

dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, SB calls $3.50, BB raises to $16, Hero calls $12, SB folds

Flop: ($36) T

(2 Players)
BB bets $25, Hero calls $25

Turn: ($86) 2

(2 Players)
BB bets $62, Hero raises to $268.10 and is All-In

10-13-2008 , 04:02 AM

MonkE

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 724

(forum problems "database error", posted reply twice by accident)

Last edited by MonkE; 10-13-2008 at 04:13 AM.

10-13-2008 , 04:04 AM

MonkE

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 724

I don't see the point of being bold when villain is voluntarily putting money in the pot with you holding the nuts... Just call. Maybe even hit a heart on the river, profit.

With this move, you pretty much guarantee that he'll only call you with 2P or a set.

10-13-2008 , 04:14 AM

corsakh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,149

I think there is a significant chance that KQ and QJ are folding to this kind of pressure.

10-13-2008 , 04:15 AM

orlov

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 7,176

how big is that significant sample.

Relying this heavily on stats is dangerous fwiw

he should fold kk/aa, qq can be heavily discounted, tt as well

I think this is fine, however calling may be more plus ev, this seems fine as well

10-13-2008 , 04:23 AM

primate

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,776

Quote:

Originally Posted by orlov

1.8k hands

10-13-2008 , 04:23 AM

rsxpunk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 9,154

you are in position so just take one off, you fold out everything worse and the only possible hands you could be bluffing off are AA,KK.

10-13-2008 , 04:42 AM

mstrbball

adept

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 976

At first glance I thought this was OK. and I still think its OK. But like someone already said I think it may be even better to just call and see the river. The only point for shoving is to fold AA and KK with even less combinations of AA since we have one. Also folds out Q combo's.

The thing about just calling is blank rivers and him firing again. I dont think most regs at 100NL would fire the river with anything less than AA, KK. This deep some might even slow down. Therefor I think its ok to just fold blank rivers. The only hand I would be worried about is KJ and having us improve to 2 pair on the river.

10-13-2008 , 04:44 AM

orlov

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 7,176

aa and kk are the biggest part of his range that beats us here tough.

theres 3ways to get dealt aa, 6 to get dealt kk.

theres one to get dealt qq, and 3 to get dealt tt, and I think this deep we can heavily discount him 3betting tt(since playing that oop in a 3bet pot 300bb deep is a nightmare).

10-13-2008 , 04:46 AM

#10

corsakh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,149

Its a little hard to discount anything without having a clue what SB is like.

10-13-2008 , 04:50 AM

#11

primate

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,776

SB was 32/1/3,5 over 100 hands. This didn't "feel" like a squeeze

10-13-2008 , 04:52 AM

#12

corsakh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,149

How do you feel a squeeze?

10-13-2008 , 05:04 AM

#13

primate

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 1,776

lol. Anyways villains 3bet% was 8.4%.

10-13-2008 , 05:38 AM

#14

lledney

adept

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 875

i think this is fine, but i'd prob make a normal raise rather than shove. looks less bluffy.

10-13-2008 , 05:45 AM

#15

Rodolphe

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 3,332

I don't think he ever fold AA or KK because the board is very drawy and we didn't raise the flop. If we shove the turn, he will put us on a draw for a good part of our range.
I'm just calling this and reevaluate the river. Probably folding if he fires on a blank.

10-13-2008 , 05:46 AM

#16

KCrow

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 4,383

Are you trying to fold KK and AA? It may be the correct move for villain to fold them but people don't like to fold overpairs in 3bet pots. If you think they are capable of folding KK+ it's not so bad but before I tried anything like this I'd need some really good reads.

If his Cbet the turn is 84% over a significant sample, surely calling is best as you often have the best hand.

10-13-2008 , 05:46 AM

#17

orlov

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 7,176

felting aa/kk here 300bb deep would be lol bad but ppl suck so who knows

10-13-2008 , 05:54 AM

#18

tommygunne

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 1,236

I think calling here is much better than shoving cos I have absolutely no faith in people ever folding AA and KK cos people don't do it enough. I'd probably fold to a 3rd barrell UI. I think combining villain checking river to us and our outs make calling better than shoving.

10-13-2008 , 06:11 AM

#19

El P

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 5,714

Quote:

Originally Posted by orlov

felting aa/kk here 300bb deep would be lol bad but ppl suck so who knows

i don't disagree, but don't you think we'd raise a set on this flop most of the time? it's very draw heavy and we're (presumably) trying to get 300bbs in, seems we should raise flop and bet/shove turn if we're trying to rep a set.

op, i like calling again turn and eval river. probably fold without help but idk the player.

10-13-2008 , 06:19 AM

#20

muse1983

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 1,386

I don´t understand why we´re not raising this flop. Against kings we´re a coinflip, against aces we have like 43 percent equity, plus he has to really decide whether he wants to play for stacks with a one pair hand. Tens are unlikely because he´s such a nit preflop, same for fours.

10-13-2008 , 06:24 AM

#21

RLOG

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,544

Yeah I'd be raising this flop a decent amount of the time to. We flop a monster so obviously want to get the money in. As played though I don't mind either raising or just seeing a river. The shove looks a bit bluffy I think, you've still got just under 200 behind.

10-13-2008 , 06:26 AM

#22

corsakh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 12,149

I think we are ****ed if he ships flop.

10-13-2008 , 06:34 AM

#23

dirtylobster

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 7,902

I kawl turn.

10-13-2008 , 07:34 AM

#24

MonkE

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 724

k I didn't see it was 3bet PF

I would either ship it on flop, or call and stack him when the flush hits. I don't think he's firing two barrels with AK here, and the mantra on low stakes is "never fold TP or better in 3bet pot". So I think there's a decent chance he calls this with AA/KK.