$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

Hero (BB): $200 (100 bb)
UTG: $249.31 (124.7 bb)
MP: $200 (100 bb)
CO: $245.20 (122.6 bb)
BTN: $181.56 (90.8 bb)
SB: $202.02 (101 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 5
4 folds, SB raises to $6, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($12) 9 A K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7.56, SB calls $7.56

Turn: ($27.12) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $17.09, SB calls $17.09

River: ($61.30) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $29.27, SB folds

Villain was a loose reg i didn't have much of a read on. Ill try and keep this question as simple as possible to avoid writing a wall of text.

Lets say Hero value bets A4 and better OTF: A9 K9 AJ AT A8 A7 A6 A5 A4=122 combos.
He also bluffs all his total air: QJ QT JT(48c) FD(13c) bdfd(13c) total air(36c)=110combos
He wants to allow villain to breakeven c/cing his weakest bluff catchers on each street without intention to c/c the next street(ie. villain can c/f 40% of his range on each street).
Also, im assuming villains flop c/c range to be something like this: AA A5s-A2s KQ KJ KT K8s K7s QQ JJ, would you agree or not?

So OTT, hero needs to give up with 28.6% of his range so that the weakest hands villain c/ced OTF can showdown(right?).
Hero loses 9combos from card removal so his total range OTT=223combos. He wants to bet all his value range again since it beats villain's perceived c/c range i think. So he will check and give up with 223c * .286 = 64combos air, leaving 42combos of his air he can bluff with, along with his 117combos value.
So already Hero has lost too many bluff combos and he hasn't even gotten to the river yet. :S

Have i done something wrong here? Or is Hero's range so strong he has to start out by bluffing showdown value OTF?
Also, does someone have an simple equation for working out how many bluffs needed OTF if you intend to drop 30% of your range each street?

He wants to allow villain to breakeven c/cing his weakest bluff catchers on each street without intention to c/c the next street(ie. villain can c/f 40% of his range on each street)

Why? Can you paraphrase that I don't understand.

I think you might be asking too many questions at once :P You should number them or something lol.

your math looks about right, although I dont think x/calling with A2s-A5s is the standard meta game from a regular right now

@ post above: He is assuming that villain is playing close to the equilibrium with his given range in this spot, therefore folding a bunch of his range vs a bet from hero on each street (fair assumption imo)

Ok thanks.
Oh, i just assumed he would c/c something stronger than Kx as well. I also see people c/c AJ here sometimes too.

Do u you think 9x is too weak for Hero to call OTT after checking back flop?

Ok sorry for double post, but i can't edit.
Found a simple method to work out how many bluffs i need OTF if my range is polarized enough that i can 3barrel everything for value.

Since i have 122 value combos OTR(without hitting extra on the way and without accounting for equity which obv means i could add in extra bluffs OTF)
122c/.714 = 171c total I bet OTR.
171c/.714 = 239c total I bet OTT.
239c/.714 = 335c total I bet OTF - 122c = 213combos bluffs i need OTF: which for me would end up being K8 and everything worse.

Though im slightly unsure if im being a bit optimistic thinking people c/c down with KQ(on blanks atleast), perhaps it is the case that i can't value bet so thinly OTR. Interested to hear what others think about that.

Well i learnt that i don't bluff enough anyway. But still... if i have so much air in my range(in any spot), then im open to being pounded on by check-raises(if i don't then i don't allow people to bluff catch optimally :S).

Also, im hoping the extra value gained on my value bets compensates me vs stationy villains(haven't worked this out).

I am a bit rusty, so a couple of questions:

How did you come up with the 28.6%?

Given that you bet less than half-pot on the river, shouldn't you have less than 49 bluff combos there? (1/3*122vc = 41bc)

Although villain's range isn't capped, do the 3 AA combos really prevent us from just overbetting all streets until we ship river?

thnx for replying

Oh i just did the math for 2/3rds pot bet each street(28.6% odds for him to call) which id normally make it on blanks. But your right here.

I don't rly understand the overbet thing. To me it seems like, if villain overbets, hero calls a lower % of his range, villain gains more value on the hands hero calls, but there is less of them..
If he bluffs appropriately here breakseven the same as against a smaller bet?

No, if the bluffs are breakeven, the more you can bet with your value hands the more money you make.
The relationship between "bet x% more" and "he calls with y% less" isn't linear in the sense that x = y or smth.

well your value betting frequencies dictates your bluffing frequencies so there is definitely a correlation.. and its quite obv that it cant be linear (assuming we are talking GTO)

I always wonder if I should bet 98s etc. in these spots (assuming it's not a valuebet). I think it's better to tripple the hand then checkback flop. That checking range from villain is usually air+ underpairs to the king, Kx and maybe some weak Ax eventhough by and large I think Ax gets bet.
CR are also somewhat rare on these boards (more rare than is optimal I'd say)

I tend to bet, mostly because I think there are not many villains that check flop with air and then start bluffing turn if we checkback. So basically our choice is take the free shot at making two pair or add the hand to our bluffing range (with extra equity due to the shot of making two pair)

But the less hands you value bet against..


Yeah i think so too clowntable, but all 9x, flush draws, gutshots on the flop and any draws picked up OTT is a ton of hands.
My gto frequencies I decided on bluffing: everything up to K8 OTF; draws+pairs under 9x OTT; everything that isn't paired OTR. Though it makes no real sense to bet K8 and 9x once. I could also check back some lower Ax OTF but doesn't make any sense either when i could 3barrel for value.