Villain is AllenJ, 18/15 2p2er according to my stats. We don't have any history that I am aware of, but as far as I know he's good-to-very-good.

I think peeling flop is pretty defensible, but I'm not sure about turn. I have a note that says that he checks/has checked when he made TPGK on the turn, so I don't think he often has a bare A other than probably AK. So obviously when I call turn I'm shoving river very often whether I hit or not. On the river it is literally moronic for me to shove with anything but a set, and I'm 100% sure that AllenJ knows this. Therefore it's genius?

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $203.25
Hero (BTN): $212
SB: $257
BB: $354.25

Pre-Flop: T J dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $6, Hero calls $6, SB folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($19) 8 4 Q (3 Players)
BB checks, UTG bets $14, Hero calls $14, BB folds

Turn: ($47) A (2 Players)
UTG bets $34, Hero calls $34

River: ($115) 5 (2 Players)
UTG bets $82, Hero raises to $158 and is All-In

he's getting like almost 5:1 or something ridiculous on a call here.

def no

Raise flop to $42. Seriously this is the only good place to bluff, rest of it is major FPS.

He has to be bluffing himself huge chunk of the time for this to work.

He can't fold on the river anymore so it's not genius actually...if you were both deepstacked and had more behind ok I can see what your doing, but here it won't work I guess. Like has been said before bluf the flop or shutdown

i think i like raising the turn as a bluff better than the flop if he's good. you look much stronger raising the turn because the flop is so dry. you're unlikely to be raising 88/44 on the flop with bb left to act and maybe not aq either. plus he is going to be double barreling the ace a lot, and if he does call you have 8 clean outs.

this is pretty terrible because you are only folding out air, and that isnt what he has.

line matches up with 88 pretty much exactly, sometimes qq or 44. really nothing else except exactly what you have. prefer to be 230 bb deep or so. In theory villain should realize aq only beats an impossible bluff, honestly even 44 should puke a little though its never folding. problem is people suck and call with ak cause of pot odds as responses indicate.

i really don't like this line. if you're going to bluff or make a move, i would do this earlier in the hand, either on the flop or the turn, preferibly the flop for this to work.

you're representing a very small range of hands when you shove here that IMO he's almost never folding his AQ, AK, even AJ. He's getting ridiculous pot odds too.

The thing is I know that he's a good player, and would imagine that he is capable of folding any made hand worse than a set, simply because there is absolutely no way he can expect me to expect him to fold and I can never ever have anything other than a set really. It's entirely contigent on the fact that I know he is 2p2, and one of the better 2p2, but I doubt he knows anything about me.

Very arguable that raising earlier is better though. It probably is.

Talking to him he says he folded 85s, which is kind of what I expected.

I'd have trouble folding 85 if i was him though, more so than aq since 888 is what I would expect to see most of the time when I lose.

it's true that since you know he's capable of making folds it's a better villain to make a play against, but i would rather do this when stacks are deeper bc villain was getting a really great price to call, thus leaving you very little FE.

Hmm... I really wonder if all this can be true at the same time.


In the actual hand I kind of like the turn raise. He´s folding a couple of hands we´re behind, and if he calls we have our clean 8 outs. Good for further peeling too imo.

unless he's a nit or your image is **** i shove the turn all day. Your draw is hidden and he's going to have a heck of a time calling here with less than 2pair.

I like turn shove much better. I think the flop is dry enough that you'll get more FE on turn anyways, but if not I dunno if he folds AQ or better enough to make this profitable. Your line does look scary, so he could talk himself into a hero fold.

As others had said, this would have worked alot better if you were deeper and weren't offering such an insanely good price.

Sick part is, if he calls, it probably isn't the right call even 5:1. But most players just can't fold here. It's not as bad as some are saying, since AllenJ's stats indicate that he is at least moderately tight. Whether that translates to river play, I can't be sure.

What do you think he folds to a turn shove? I guess it does look a little suspicious to think you shove 88/44 on the turn w the dryness of the board when you could let him valuetown himself or barrel again w air.

read the hand history i was utg but in the c/o at the same time.. nice post keep them coming. - allenj

vs a good player i think you will fold everything but a set here. Everything else is a bluffcatcher and your line is so god damn ****ing strong. No competant player is flatting flop and turn and jamming as a bluff. So yeh don't make a habit of it though

I really think the key here is that villain respects your game though. I mean if a random shoves this river i will call with a good ace alot cos most small stakes randoms do crazy ****.

PS this is not good and it is ussually burning money trying to make people fold a 3barrel value range at 1/2