5 handed so he opens MP, villain plays 24/19/39 and cbets 75% after 500h

IPoker Network $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $356.00
CO: $200.00
Hero (BTN): $215.00
SB: $207.95
BB: $210.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with 6 4
UTG raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15.00) 3 4 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $12.00, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($39.00) K (2 players)
UTG bets $26.00, Hero calls $26

River: ($91.00) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $58.00
Hero shoves

Do you like my riverbluff?

I think he can try to bluff me of mid pairs with air.
Do you think he will fold KQ / AK ?

He has to call 110 in a 300 pot

I dont like it. If he has air, then just call his bet. I am not convinced his valuebetting KQ/AK with the intention of folding to a shove. But I think your BEST option here is folding.

He's gotta fold like 43% of the time

Well he probably should fold AK and KQ and AA too. Not many draws you coulda been on. I'd assume you should have a set here a lot. And the only real draw (65) hit the river on top of it.


So I'd say he probably should do this (in which case it's clearly a good bluff even if he's never barreling air):

Calls:

33,44,88,KK = 10 combos
65s = 4 combos
A5s = 4 combos
K8s (think he opens this there?) = 2 combos (not sure he should actually do this but hard to fold top 2 for most)


Folds:

KQ = 12 combos
AK = 12 combos
AA = 6 combos



He's got 50 combos and must fold like 21.5 of them. So if he folds AA,AK,KQ a bit more than two thirds of the time then this is a good bluff even assuming he was never bluff barreling.

So it depends on him but if he's good he, I think, should be able to recognize you have a set here a ton and the only actual draw hit and he's never ahead of you when you raise for value and to be bluffing here you'd have to be turning something like 87 or 99 into a bluff.


Could be a pretty sweet bluff if he's capable of folding those hands.




I think this is a pretty interesting hand and an option that I never really explore much. Glad I saw this thread and will be thinking about it. Also looking forward to what others have to say.

Personally I think it's a suicidal shove. I can understand the float on the flop...and while I wouldn't just flat the turn without betting pattern info on his turn play...I can understand the turn call since the K is a great double barrel card. The river shove after he has fired three times...even though the board is relatively dry is just gambling. I think he will call there with AK.

triple barrel = extreme strength unless you have a history to work with

Nobody else has responded to this? It's interesting damnit. C'mon people.

you can rep sets very credibel on this board, but on the other hand he has a lot of relative strong hands AK/KQ/TT+ and espcially AK/AA will certainly herocall often. So important is, if you can make him fold KQ/TT-QQ almost always and AK/AA a bit. He has also some 3barrels bluff which you could fold.

Imho impossible to say with those limited reads you posted.
It's very important how he views you, how wide your calling pre is in this spot, and general history between you both.

Lego05, you're analysis is right on. It really comes down to your opponent. The vast majority of opponents who have AK or AA are not folding it here, so it's totally opponent dependent.

villians valuebetting range is definitly a lot thiner then AK+

True. But it's probably not much wider than KJ+. I agree that there's probably a fair amount of 3-barrell bluffs.

I think pre-flop is way too loose, and the bluff, i wouldn't do it but thats jsut me, my thought is he should never ever 3barrel here, the river is an absolute brick, so I don't think he is valuebet/folding enough to make the shove profitable

calling sucks bc if villain is bluffing he can easily turn small pp's/8x into a bluff. nothing worse than making a hero call only to still lose the pot to 55

i think a lot of regs are more likely 3 barrel air than to value bet 99-QQ all 3 streets. undecided yet if that pushes villains range more towards AA/KK/sets or more towards bluffs, but its just an observation

shove is bad here..
it makes no sense..most likely you would have reraised a good draw/hand on flop/turn to get it in

raise is definitely better then a hero call because alot of his bluffing range is higher PPs,

I think it comes down to whether he folds ak or aa, which I think a lot wouldnt because they dont give you credit for sets but I think the only draw hitting on such a dry board is good for you.

I think a shove is good here because theres definetly air in his range after barreling turn he wants to barrel again.

meh thinking about the betsizing a little more i dont think villain is bluffing and im guessing he does not expect you to flat any set twice, so if hes a decent hand reader i can see him putting you on a marginal pair and value betting Kx/AA then when you shove he's just like "hmmm, only real hand you can have is 56s, but i doubt youre that big of a station, and their are only 4 combos so F it, I CALLLL!"

and obv hes snapcalling 2pr+

I agree shoving is definitely better than hero call, but folding is at some point before the river is probably better. Although a solid reg folds AA/AK/KQ 80% of the time + 3barrel air hands, he has 33,88,KK often enough for a shove to be visibly -EV. He will sometimes show 56s too, which is definitely capable of 2barreling this particular board.

As played fold river.

if he folds aa/ak/kq 80% of the time this will be a SERIOUSLY profitable play. just look at the math earlier in the post.

hes got way more combos of aa/ak/kq then sets.

Firstly, I would like to point out that the neccesary fold% of the Villain is not in fact 43%.

Pot size at the time of decision making is 149 dollars (including blinds + postflop bets) and Hero has 171 dollars behind.

So for a shove to be at least breakeven. We have that the EV(shove) = 0

=> 149p - 171(1-p) = 0
=> p = 0.53 (53%)

Secondly, you pointed out that Villain has 18 combos of monsters (10 sets, 4 56s, 4 A5s) and that he has 30 combos of folds (12 KQ, 12 AK, 6 AA). Although this is accurate for the most part, you are assuming that Villain is always folding AA/AK/KQ, which is not realistic.

According to my conservative estimation (20%) of how often Villain is going to in fact call with KQ/AK/AA, we take away 6 combos of fold and add them to the combos that he'll call with. We now have 24 combos that Villain is snapping off with and 24 combos that Villain is folding.

However, the math tells us he needs to fold at least 53% of the time, making this marginally -EV.

Of course, taking into account Villain's occasional 3barrel bluffs, this could possibly be a neutral move.

i like it if villain is tightish and not too stationy, he should be folding most of his range of course but ppl do hate folding

From time to time yes, this is a good play

this range is pretty ridiculous if villain is remotely aggressive. If he thinks hero is bad/weak-tight, he can be three barreling his entire range here. I three barrel my entire range here until proven wrong. I would probably check/fold some showdownable hands on the turn or river, but that's about it.

So you say Villain is barreling entire air/nuts range and c/f showdownable hands? By this logic, a shove would be terribad, and call is definitely better. In any case, granted TAG Villain has some air in his range, I don't think he has enough air for it to be significant.

Then again, his 3barreling range could consists of many thin value, increasing his fold%.

well from villains perspective hands like 55, 66, and 77 ARE air. i mean he must put hero on at least 99+ and the only possible draw hero can have just hit

very true words.
BTW, how can a bluff vs. an UTG opener who shows strength on 3 streets on a K hi board, who does get good odds be a good bluff? Cmon. You can't win any pot, you know that. Take the pots that belong to you, this one certainly doesnt...
If you do it very very rarely your image has to be super clean and passive, otherwise he'll just talk himself into calling since you would have raised the flop or turn with a strong hand....

You give him too good odds imo. I'd just fold.