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200NL QQ on monotone flop+over vs good player 200NL QQ on monotone flop+over vs good player

05-28-2008 , 07:08 PM
Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

UTG: $226.00
MP: $212.80
CO: $520.95
BTN: $75.00
SB: $200.00
Hero (BB): $268.40

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with Q Q
2 folds, CO raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero raises to $24, CO calls $17

Flop: ($49.00) K 8 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $40, CO calls $40

Turn: ($129.00) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($129.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $75, Hero ??

Villain seems to be a good regular, stats are 22/16/4.1
His aggression by streets : 3.8/2.3/infinite and his wtsd is 17% which indicates to me that he's taking away alot of pots by betting the river.

Is this a good spot to make a crying call? ..or is his line too consistent with AK with one spade?
05-28-2008 , 07:37 PM
can't see myself calling here.
05-28-2008 , 07:43 PM
I think you are ahead wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more often than you are behind here. I expect a K to bet this turn forever. You can not put him on a flopped flush so he should also be betting that. I see you being good here quite a lot of the time.

I think he 4-bets AK preflop?
05-28-2008 , 08:01 PM
Cbet size is gross. Either bet like 30 or check. I would fold the river.
05-28-2008 , 08:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hail Eris
Cbet size is gross. Either bet like 30 or check. I would fold the river.


A cbet sizing of 30 screams of weakness to me, and I envision getting raised by naked As virtually every time. With a bet of $40, the villain has to know that I'm serious about the hand, and would be interprete his FE to be closer to 0.

Discuss.
05-28-2008 , 08:51 PM
How many times do we have to be good to make that call profitable?

Calling 75 to win 205?

1 in 2.5 times - are we not good 1 in 2.5 times?
05-29-2008 , 04:55 AM
snap call!! dude has jj with a spade imo!
05-29-2008 , 05:06 AM
most players with a good spade shove the flop over your c-bet in a 3bet pot.

If he has an OK king with a spade kicker he doesn't really need to bet the turn, most likely because if you had a big spade you'd be barreling.
05-29-2008 , 05:39 AM
flop bet size does suck. if hes shoving over a $30 bet hes shoving over any bet you make.

i check this flop v often tho and lead non-spade turn if he checks back
05-29-2008 , 06:38 AM
snap call, also as others said cb size is not good and cbet turn, not flop
05-29-2008 , 06:45 AM
for guys wanting to call river, i realize were getting redic odds, but what exacty do you think hes value betting here? JJ or TT? really?
sure seems like KX with a big spade to me. that and hes like never bluffing here and he cant expect you to ever call with worse than JJ.

i think b/f >>> c/c

basically i play the entire hand differently postflop

      
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