Villain takes non-standard value and bluffing lines, and does not play in an ABC fashion. He's by no means good, though, and does not hand read well. If I had to guess, he's probably like 25/20 with a < 30% fold to 3bet.

No hh, but I'll do my best to reconstruct the hand. Thoughts on river play are appreciated.

$200 effective stacks, 1/2. Villain raises HJ to 6, hero 3bets to 21 with KdJd, villain calls.

Flop (45) : Jc Th 7c. Villain checks, hero checks.
Turn (45) : 8h. Villain checks, hero bets 19, villain calls.
River: (83) 4c, villain donks 45, hero?

I am going to first guess that villain never has a straight given turn line on a 2 fd board. River sizing looks like a blocking bet, and shoving over it looks kind of sexy, since he never has a straight and is probably always bet/folding sets and two pair. He rarely has a flush, and might be bluffing with the copious amounts of missed draws in his range. Also, with regard to timing, villain bet within 2 seconds on the river, which makes his range stronger imo.

If we jam, we only need to win the pot about 50% of the time for the play to be +EV. If we call, we need to be right 26% of the time.

What do you all think?

this is against lynette chan amirite?


If it is, I really dunno cuz the bitch always does this to me at the worst spots and I have no idea what her range for it is.

I probably just call, I dont see them bet/folding 2p or a set here, cuz all the draws did miss and u probably only have a FEW nines in your range.

First I prefer flatting pf, we have position and by just calling we keep dominated hands in. I mean we flop top pair and we pot control the flop IP, see what I mean? So I'd flat pf.

Turn bet is a bet meh, what are we trying to get value from? Flush draws I suppose, do we think that Tx and worse pairs are going to call a bet? Furthermore is he going to c/c the turn with FD's? Probably not. I think we can prob check back turn, there's not much value to be had. I suppose something could be said for protecting our hand but I think getting c/r'ed and having to fold is more of a concern than betting for protection since I think he'd donk a lot of flush draws on the turn.

flush draw hit fwiw

seems like a fold imo. don't think villain has a flush or straight as I think both would lead turn. problem with a shove is that you have a hard time representing a flush. I think if river was 4h instead of 4c, you might be able to pull it off.

I'm also really curious about the turn bet. like, why bet there at all?

eep.

well i just fold. I dont see you having many flushes.. Really only T8s and T9s.

and Am and Shpanko are right, turn bet sucks