Villain is very loose preflop but seems solid postflop. He is a reg.
35/29/3.5 over 21k (pfr from MP: 21%). Seems like I'm never good here when he c/r.


Party Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN): $200.00
SB: $218.00
BB: $235.10
UTG: $329.35
CO: $335.30

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with Q K
UTG raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17.00) K A 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $14.00, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($45.00) Q (2 players)
UTG bets $34.00, Hero calls $34

River: ($113.00) 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $50.00, UTG raises to $274.35, Hero folds

****

his line doesnt make sense id look him up here

what hands have us beat that plays this way

TJ? our hand is face up as an A, we never have QQ KK AA TJ, so its a sick spot for him to bluff because if we're folding KQ that means we're folding A3 A5 as well?

i think its a pretty clear call to me

and id check back river or gay bet smaller, calling c/r

I think a c/r on the river does make sense with QQ-AA, JT putting us on KQ,AQ or simply Ax.

wierd spot. If he had a set you would assume he would bet for value on river and i doubt he had TJ. But why would he think we would fold with call call bet?

if he has a hand from his value range he has no reason to believe that we will bet so he should be betting with his value range instead of checking so we can deduce that he does not have a hand for value unless hes sick good and knows we will vbet KQ AQ Ax.

i doubt that so i call

I like the fold.

I do wonder how much value we can get on the river though.

So you would check back 2pair on the river?

Yeah but the problem is, that over my entire "career" I've never seen a single c/r allin bluff on the river in these positions by any solid player.

Bad way of thinking about it, think of his c/calling range after betting flop+turn

Probably not, I'm just not sure how many worse hands he can have to call us here.

I do. I think we can get value from Ax hands given how loose he is preflop. The other thing is, sometimes you have to bet for value even if his c/c range is narrow as it's very unlikely he will c/r you but might talk himself into something wrong. You have to give them the chance.

This is pretty much what I thought, but he has to think we have at least a good A ourselves when we bet here a very big chunk of the times.

I think it's closer than most people are suggesting. The better the player, the more likely I am to look him up. If he's a winning LAG playing 35/29, he probably falls in the solid/creative category and the following analysis applies:

He knows you can't realistically have AA/KK/QQ/AK very often. He also knows, or has good reason to suspect, that if you had JT (and floated the flop) or 55, you'd valuebet it bigger if you'd played it like this up to the river.

Also, if he really had a big hand himself, I'm doubting he's gonna C/R it. You're basically never getting to the river with air, so you won't bluff at it often. Furthermore, you're gonna be checking back about 90% of your range (Ax and Kx).

If he fires a third barrell with air, you're most likely calling hands like Ax/KQ/etc. So he checks to give up. But by betting, especially by choosing this size, you're allowing him to blow you out of the pot. There are very few hands you can comfortably call his raise with here. KQ=A5=A3=Ax in this spot. I think he played it very well though, regardless of what he had.

I think you give him too much credit here. He was multi-tabling massively and his actions were pretty fast always. Expecting a fold to a c/r is just too optimistic as the river bet is pretty strong imo regardless the size.

I wanted to add to my post that basically everything I wrote is void if he's an uncreative multitabling nit, cause nits just don't do this with air. However, your description of him (35/29 and solid postflop) made me assume he was no multitabling tagfish.

However, if that's your read, then obviously go ahead and fold.. and don't make a thread about it?

I've never said he is a tagfish. And I think it's a fairly difficult spot so I don't think it doesn't worth a thread.

Miss click all in.

these 2 binked it imo

if we were deeper then maybe sometimes we float turn again w/ pair + gs looking to shove over smallsh river bets or bluff when checked to but that doesnt rly apply here so it feels like we are literally nevr bluffing. gay betting to get spite calls and c/r bluffs from Ax seems like the only way vs this player w/ any vbetting hand we have here. if we think he barrels this turn more than most then gay bet/calling the first one. if not its gay bet/puke decide? w/ exac KQ a check isnt really a tragedy imo. get here w/ JTcc a bit vs him and then its easy

as played id fold tho cause he must see youve already put in over half your stack and i dont think he gives you credit for making the fold you did

fwiw this might be the worst post in the history of 2p2 and i reserve the right to contradict everything i jus said when i awake from my current haze