sorry it won't convert. hand from wsop in nj

guy is running 23/18/7 and is a solid loser over about 10k hands

i had check called down some wacky bluff of his on another table about a minute before this fwiw

#Game No : 453803969
***** WSOP.com Hand History for Game 453803969 *****
$1/$2 Blinds No Limit Holdem - ***
Table Cherry Hill Mall 6 Max (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Ritzz ( $201 )
Seat 2: MrFeeny ( $240.08 )
Seat 4: chico214 ( $197.11 )
Seat 6: Cache ( $203 )
Seat 7: RhinoThunder ( $200 )
Seat 9: arovie ( $307.47 )
Ritzz posts small blind [$1]
MrFeeny posts big blind [$2]

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to RhinoThunder [ 8s, As ]
chico214 folds
Cache folds
RhinoThunder raises [$5.25]
arovie folds
Ritzz folds
MrFeeny calls [$3.25]

** Dealing flop ** [ 8c, Qs, 8d ] pot 10.50
MrFeeny checks
RhinoThunder bets [$5.75]
MrFeeny calls [$5.75]

** Dealing turn ** [ 9c ] pot 21.75
MrFeeny checks
RhinoThunder bets [$15.50]
MrFeeny calls [$15.50]

** Dealing river ** [ 7d ] pot 52.75
MrFeeny checks
RhinoThunder bets [$37]
MrFeeny raises [$213.58]

Calling seems correct

9 & 7 seem like the 2 worse cards for your hand.

There aren't really any draws that didn't get there on the turn unless you think he floats KT here so you'll need villain to be overvaluing Qx or possibly 8xs, etc some of the time.

It's probably a theory call based on the position of this hand in your range, but in practice after betting 3 streets on such a dry board and bad runout I'd probably sigh fold. I just don't think villain gets to the river with enough hands that villain feels good about bluffing the river.

Check back might be better on the river.

Maybe it seems that way now that he went AI. But really, we are definitely missing value by checking back. IMO villain is usually calling flop and turn with a queen on this dry board, and I think a queen pays us off on the river way to often to check back.

Once V shoves I feel pretty confident we're beat and would lay it down.

Agreed that we should not be checking back that's just ROT

Betting or X river is pretty close I think. Betting slightly better.

Is he capable of doing this with 9T? This hand makes sense. It's such a huge raise that I wouldn't even expect TJ does this. Can't be sure though obviously.

I think it's a call. We need 33% to break even.

If we give him range of ATcc, TJo, TJs, 8Qs, T9s, T9o, 99, 87s then we have best hand 38% of time.

Also I expect 99 to 3 bet pre-flop sometimes and TJ to XR turn sometimes so I would weight them less.

I think betting river is fine.
As for the shove, i think i would fold now.There are very few hands that would take that line and we beat.

I would remove TJo and 9To from that range mainly because he called pre.

checking back river is definitely not a good play.

calling the massive raise on the river is really close though. although it seems like the only logical hands are JT, 99, 89, 87 cos i dont think he calls the turn with 77. qj probs just calls the river bet and so do other 8xs that aren't boats (or maybe just make a smaller raise), and it's really just a question if you think he is capable of doing this with t9 or j9.

that being said, i'd probs fold and sigh a whole bunch

Bet/fold is better than X/showdown here?

Much better IMO, but I've been wrong before

Any math/theory to prove it is better? If you are bet/folding to extract value from just Qx and folding to jams, I'm not sure it might be better than X/Showdown.

wtf at anyone saying check back the river. f no.

OP you have 10k hands on him, any tendency reads? overplays hands etc?

readless i think b/f is prob good.

Sorry if I'm missing something, but this analysis seems incomplete.

I generally agree with the range you suggested and that we have the best hand against 38% of those combos. However, just because he has one of those missed draws by the river doesn't mean he ALWAYS bluff raises AI. In fact, I would consider big plays like that to be pretty few are far between (unless the V is super aggro which doesn't seem to be the case based on OP's info). If the V has a boat however, he is almost certainly shoving. So how can we weigh a hand that always shoves river the same as a hand that only shoves occasionally at best?

Again, I may not be fully understanding the analysis so if I'm missing something here feel free to clarify. Also, I mostly play .25/.50 and .50/1 so maybe 1/2 is much more aggressive. Its just very hard for me to imagine that its sooo much more aggressive that V is deciding to stack off as a bluff 38% of the time is this spot.

^You're probably correct.

I'd like to hear more about this wacky bluff he tried before clicking the fold button.

Maybe you missed the fact that villian just made a wacky bluff a minute ago? I think bet/call or X/showdown are fine. Not sure bet/fold is appropriate given the circumstances losing player/wacky bluffs etc.

I too would be interested in hearing more information about the whacky bluff.

River is still a clear bet though.

Bet river

Call river; I don't think villain would raise this big with a straight so we're potentially only losing to boats.

Sent from my VS870 4G

I didn't like the 9 on the turn, that is why I suggested X/showdown. If I bet river it would be to bet/call and not bet/fold.

Lol @ even considering checking river, go back to nl2.

It's an exploiting fold, people don't bluff here enough.

Thank you for your advice and insights.