Whats up.
This hand ask me to post here one of my buddies, since he have no account on 2p2.
Here we go.

Villain is pretty much agressive on the turn by checkraising his hands, rearly give up, and his checkraise equals 14%. Call open from blinds about 10% and his 3bet % is extreamly low. WTSD 35%, and fold to cbets on the each street is very low (turn would be 30%). According to PTR he is almost 5ptbb winner on 200nl with decent amount of hands.
And somehow, his agression by streets would be: 2.0/1.6/0.8
BTN is fish. Nothing special. (please dont say anything about pre).

So, questions he want to ask:
1. Are we betting this turn, and if we, are we going to bet the river.
2. Are we calling or shoving this turn. And if we calling, are we going to shove any river on his check / or calling his shove by T or 7 ?


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($137)
hero (CO) ($337)
BTN ($150)
SB ($108)
BB ($200)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) hero is CO 10 7
1 fold, hero raises to $6, BTN calls $6, 1 fold, BB calls $4

Flop: 9 4 6 ($19, 3 players)
BB checks, hero bets $12, BTN folds, BB calls $12

Turn: 2 ($43, 2 players)
BB checks, hero bets $29, BB raises to $75, $46 to hero ($290)?

turn bet seems mandatory.

i would call turn c/r. I doubt you have much fold equity and you're getting too good of a price to fold. bluffing blank rivers seems fine if villain checks but i wouldn't expect him to do so frequently.

agree with betting turn, and betting any river >T and all of our outs ofc. We're getting priced in ott so we can't really fold.

I'd def shove river if chked to- it seems terrible/unlikely for him to have a value hand and check the river on basically any card, and it's pretty hard for us to have air. I'd probably fold T and 7 rivers.

btw, is your c/r % on him for flop or turn? theres a huge difference i think

14% - turn c/r.

I dont realy think he is goona fold anything on this turn with such a fold to cb. I mean we repping only lots of draws, pair+draws etc. I mean we have very 'weak' range here on the turn. Thats why i dont see MANDATORY of this bet... Whats the point?

call and hit.

okaay, what about questions?

Him c/r'ing turns %14 means that he doesn't c/r turns %86 of the time. And this is like the 2nd best turn for us.

And no, we are not calling on a T. But we will win with a T fairly often. It is not like he is gonna jam river %100 of the time. You can see that your turn bet/call range is protected since we `never` 3b this turn.

I wonder if he would slowplay a set on this board. If he would do so, then calling turn would be the best play imo. However, if villain would always check-raise the flop with a set, then I'd shove over his turn-raise.

What is his raise c-bet% ? The higher, the more likely he'd not slowplay his sets.

wow so many people talking about stats stats, barely a mention of villain's range, is this the thing to do now?

But what % of the time does he c/r this turn?

I don't think I would c-bet the flop here. You said he doesn't fold to many c-bets and has a high went to showdown.

So we're certainly not ahead and betting for value.

Betting as a bluff seems unlikely to work on this board, as he will probably float, any pair, any overcards any hint of a draw.

We have very little equity to making a big hand that can stand some heat, but lots of equity to having the best hand by the river; I think spiking a 10 or maybe even a 7 could get us to showdown with the best hand in a small pot. We're in position, so we can bloat the pot if we spike the gutter. We can also continue on all diamond turns and possibly continue on Ace turn cards as a bluff, as a significant part of our check back range should be Aces and other weak showdown hands.

No flop is a must cbet, too good a flop for us to c/f...we can c/f a bunch of other flops. We don't cbet to take it down on the flop only, we cbet to take it down on the flop+further streets.

I call turn which probably looks pretty strong which is why I think he'll give up and check/fold his bluffs a good chunk of the time (thus I checkback T,7 and bluff blanks). Stack off if our draw gets there of course. Combined equity of binking and him check/folding sometimes = good enough

I bet this turn 100%, if villain ch/calls turn I tripple river.

changed my mind, i like a shove

i think that given he folds to cbets so infrequently, he's going to get to this turn with a lot of Ahighs, Khighs, Qhighs, Jhi, bad pairs that he can't c/c again profitably and will turn into a bluff some % of the time. i don't think that % of the time has to be very high for a shove from us to be profitable given that most people's turn raising ranges are 2pair+ and he basically has to have a set/flush draw for a b/c on this board.

T7dd has ~ 20% equity against higher flush draws/sets ott, so if we shove, we have to have him fold 32% of the time for our shove to be break even. we're not exactly sure how often he c/r a draw or set ott, but we can probably assume that he's going to slowplay sometime, donk turn sometimes, c/r flop sometimes, c/c to the river... etc. I gave him 1 combo of each set (so he has to c/r turn 1/3rd of the time when he flops a set, seems reasonable) and 2 comboes of higher flush draws. this makes for 6 comboes he can b/c, which means that he only has to be bluffing like this more than TWO comboes for our shove to be +ev.

His preflop range is probably a tad wider then usual given the fish in the blinds, and his stats indicate that he is likely to float the flop with hands like JTs, QT, QJ, T8, so the % times he has to get to the turn and turn them into a bluff is soo soo small for us to be good.

so this guy could be super good and start c/r/calling relaly thin for value, but i doubt he's adjusted enough to compensate for all the air he likely has here

Lifeisagrind,

Good post, nice and thorough.

He has to c/r/f his flush draws with the sizing he used.
Let's not forget that villain is very likely aware of this and it should discourage him from bluffing.

I also like lifegrinds plan. It seems like it would be profitable.

The question is, will it be more profitable to call and see a river since all of our outs are "hidden"?

If our opponent actually has a value hand, we are almost certain to get paid if either the backdoor flush or gutterball straight come in.

Do you think villain floats flop with ace highs?

lol +1, I was actually going to mention this myself. Every strat thread is riddled with a dozen mostly useless stats(w/tiny hand samples) and no actual reads/history/gameflow comments. HUDbots abound!!

I think I still disagree with this. How is this "too good of a flop for us?"

If we c-bet, we are basically committing to a multi-street bluff on a dry board against somebody that doesn't like to fold.

To address the ranges question: Our opponents range (stated as ~10%) is much stronger than ours, especially since he doesn't 3-bet much. He almost always has either a piece of this flop or 2 overcards. And I'm not sure either one folds the flop.

Our range is much wider, and as such is much more likely air or weak crap that we can be moved off of if stacks go in.

with limited info i think using stats and trying to extrapolate other aspects of villain's game from these stats is fine...

i mean, if you have reads/history/gameflow to go by then by all means use that but when all you know is this limited hand sample and his general stats i think it would be a waste to not use them