apos, urs is fine

lol bluffshove every time...i do spew sometimes, but its not everyday i get to the river in this spot with a bluff

this was my exact reasoning during the hand...which is why i led turn, and from the responses it seems like i bet too small.

yeah the only worse valuehand i see in his range is kq. as for reads, he never seemed to be out of line. i think he 4bet me successfully once but postflop hes seemed to be rather straightforward. so skibbel, are you c/f or jamming here?

just bc it might be +ev doesnt make it the most optimal play. if we shove and he only folds worse and calls better it can still be +ev if he somehow has worse a lot. however if we check and he never bluffs, checking is then optimal

well, i was just saying that he can't fold KQ here, we should shove here with AA because we want value from KQ,
if he fold after your shove u should exploit this until he adjust(and yes we should c/f river with AA until he adjusts)

betting 60 here seems kind of bad and polarizes me pretty good

Yeah, that's pretty much what I was so saying.

if villain calling $44 on the turn means you are in such bad shape you don't want to put in the rest of your money on a blank river, i'd probably bet less on the turn so he can keep a larger range and bluff more as well. it also makes your hand look suspect.

against certain opponents, ill bet 1/2, bet 1/3, then shove. sets up a lot of nice plays for the future if he's a reg whom you face a lot.

lol sounds interesting dude ill give that a whirl

On second thought shoving is probably fine. I was thinking his calling range when you shove has you beat too often to justify getting value out of what might only be KQ, but that means he's either defending fairly light vs 3bets or floating pretty light on the flop. Hard to say for sure when you are pretty much readless.

you're wrong. its definitely possible that shoving is +ev while c/f is more +ev.

cf

Yeah while folding is 0 ev you have showdown value with your check and that certainly could have a higher ev than shoving.

Sizing goes either way, with a bigger turn bet you are way less likely to be bluffing with a river shove when you are only shipping half pot but also charge a bit more on a fairly connected board (though prob shouldn't be a huge concern since most draws either already hit or have a piece of the board and aren't folding). A smaller turn bet not only makes your perceived range weaker on that street but also on the river when you have a larger bet in relation to the pot meaning a bluff with a busted hand is more possible.

i think im c/deciding here, siding with c/c more than c/f for the most part

yeah i just think bombing it on the turn on this board cant be good for balance...id like to be able to be bluffing with smaller sizes. i think the combos of better that call drastically outweigh the combos of worse that call...and worse also might fold and i check hes not bluffing often so c/f i think is the move. never know though...ive told myself in the past to fold more rivers and then ppl start showing bluffs

whatever i shoved into kj like a donk gg me

how can u ever c/c here, thats really bad

i think c/f > c/c > shove

whys c/c bad? dont think he gets to riv with bluffs? guess thats true

The only reason to cc is if he's capable to valuebet worse hands (kq) or turn worse hands into a bluff (QJ).

I would have shoved here.

im aware of this. thats why i dont like jamming cause kq prob sticks it in anyway but more hands i beat put it in if i check than if i jam myself...i still think c/f is best tho but that could be a product of my inner results-oriented donk

if he can show up with KJ then your play is 100% okay imo.

Why is that? If he is calling with a lot of broadways he just has more hands in his range that we lose to and like not a single extra one that we get value from when we shove.

well obv this depends on the image you have. but if villain can have KJ, he can have QJ and AJ as well. and i sometimes get called by these type hands when i shove the river here, even though it makes no sense. but i monkey around in 3b pots a lot.

not to mention the fact that people sometimes slowplay AK preflop. depends on the villain though.

edit: against all broadway hands, AA is 57%. this isn't the greatest representation of his range ever, but its not bad to work off of. even facing a slough of sets and 2 pair hands, AA isn't too bad off.

Mehhh I guess it's possible but expecting to get value from those hands readless (or only with the read that he's defending fairly wide with most broadways) seems way too optimistic.

ya, i guess that would be too optimistic without a read and some history.

i just don't see how we can fold this though, so really the question is what is the best way to get to showdown.

also to note, in my opinion villains hand weights towards the weaker side of his range. he doesn't raise the flop or the turn...and the pot is pretty big by the turn, and the board is really wet. hard to give villain credit for having too strong a range here.

in which case , if we think shoving will fold all the worse hands, and keep in the better, why not bet/call a smallish amount. bet a gay $35. you'll get to showdown cheap often, and he might spaz. though i'd expect to get raised infrequently.