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200NL: Correct b/f??? 200NL: Correct b/f???

08-06-2008 , 09:04 PM
Opponent is playing 27/22 att steal 40% 3bet 2.1% agg 33% (hem) I guess his vpip infact is a bit lower but still this is over a good sample. I feel like he is a very honest player that plays pretty much with his cards face up even though his laggy stats.

Maybe my flop bet is a bit on the bigside. What do you guys think?

Criminal b/f?

Betfair, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BTN: $621.34
SB: $226
BB: $138.50
Hero (UTG): $202
MP: $467.75
CO: $277.35

Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $7, MP calls $7, CO calls $7, BTN calls $7, SB folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($36) 8 K 5 (5 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $29.35, 2 folds, BTN calls $29.35, BB folds

Turn: ($94.70) Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $65, BTN raises to $289.70, Hero folds
08-06-2008 , 09:16 PM
I thiiinnk bet/fold is better than bet/call here. But I wouldn't bet. The hand is 5 ways, I'd cbet and fold to any resistance on the flop. I agree that there is no need for such a big cbet on the flop (given how cbet as % of flop should be lower when your stack to pot is lower).

There isn't much value in a bet, especially as you set yourself up to get semi bluffed occasionally, if he is tricky enough to hold off on his semi bluffs until the turn. KQ got there, and KJ should fold turn

Check and reevaulate, hopefully his bet size will give something away (I'd think bigger bets are more likely to be draws trying to pot commit himself, just as a general rule.)
08-06-2008 , 09:20 PM
looks fine to me.
08-06-2008 , 09:20 PM
I think a turnbet is fine, you'll still want to protect vs. draws. The question is indeed if he can play a turnmade combodraw like this a reasonable amount of the time, say > 25%, if so call.

Last edited by EarnestEager; 08-06-2008 at 09:25 PM.
08-06-2008 , 09:24 PM
I think its fine. The fact that you lead into that field of like 4-5 people and fired the turn should scare him a bit and i really doubt he is making some kind of move here.
08-06-2008 , 11:11 PM
ehhhh, I fell like the only hand we lose to is KQ here. With a big pot and the BB left to act, doesnt he play and big made hand fast on the flop (set or combo draw)? Doesnt AQcc/Qjcc play the same way? I think you can make an argument for calling, but I dunno.
08-06-2008 , 11:29 PM
I don't really like this, we put in half our stack and then fold to an aggressive player on a drawy board. I know the Q kind of sucks but I'm not sure how much I like this line.
08-06-2008 , 11:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shpanko
I don't really like this, we put in half our stack and then fold to an aggressive player on a drawy board. I know the Q kind of sucks but I'm not sure how much I like this line.
what line would you take? c/c turn, then c/f river? c/f turn cant be an option can it? and stacking off here also seems pretty bad? i think maybe the only other way is to bet/fold less (like 45 or 50) on the turn.
08-07-2008 , 06:31 AM
Yeah sphanko what is your line here?

I think I could have bet a bit less on flop making thus making my turn bet a bit smaller but I don't think it changes his desicion with the hand he's doing this with. The reason I bet big this big was that CO and BB are big fishes.

BTW he just opens alot of pots because people don't defend their blinds at the site I'm playing at. He's not being agressive PF I have never seen him bluff and he basically always 3-bets jj+,AK and nothing else so I feel like he is very honest in his play.

I don't really know if he would slow play a set or if he knows that I basically can't have a flushdraw here if I don't have AQcc or AJcc.

      
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