200NL: c/c or b/f? - Small Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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200NL: c/c or b/f?

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08-07-2008 , 10:00 AM

Mrage

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 4,916

Given the board texture, and villain's stats (47/9/1.6, 40% AFreq on river over 367 hands lol) is there more value in a b/f or a c/c? Anyone stick it in, he's got almost exactly a psb left on the river and his wtsd is 31%.

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (SB): $265.90
BB: $287.65
UTG: $200.00
CO: $204.55
BTN: $232.80

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with Q

2 folds, BTN calls $2, Hero raises to $10, BB calls $8, BTN calls $8

Flop: ($30.00) 7

(3 players)
Hero bets $22, BB folds, BTN calls $22

Turn: ($74.00) K

(2 players)
Hero bets $41, BTN calls $41

River: ($156.00) K

(2 players)

08-07-2008 , 10:04 AM

Mrage

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 4,916

Also, I realize now that my turn bet was a little on the small side. I guess I was trying to not barrel him off of 87 stuff but still trying to charge 89 and 56... bad?

08-07-2008 , 10:06 AM

bubaloo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 5,681

shove

08-07-2008 , 10:07 AM

22Tango22

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 407

shove, he wont fold any pair

if he has some some slowplayed T4o for example its counterfeited right now

C/C aint an option, he wont bluff enough with that low af

+ no draws missed, only 89

08-07-2008 , 10:10 AM

AshleyC

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,278

I'd probably c/c to induce.

He may turn a T into a 'bluff' on the river, or he may bluff a missed draw 89 etc.

I think that this has more value than shoving, to get called by worse, as he seems such a station. I don't think that there is much in it.

Edited: just seen that his af is pretty low - hmmm, now i dont know...

08-07-2008 , 10:39 AM

TeddyPicker

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 407

Yeah, i dont mind a shove as he's rarely got a K and he'll never fold a T on this river.

+ he's just checking back sooo much of his range that u beat on this river (even a villain w/ a pretty high af would be checking back most T's i feel, that he'll only be betting hands like 89/56 that u beat, and these are a pretty small part of his range by the river IMO.

08-07-2008 , 10:44 AM

JaredBC

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 60

KT or 44 would be ugly and I doubt he plays TT so passively PF. Aside from those two poss hands which are unlikely I'd be shoving here.

08-07-2008 , 10:46 AM

JaredBC

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 60

Quote:

Originally Posted by AshleyC

a T has showdown value and it's not strong enough for most players to value bet. He probably just checks behind and if he DOES have a K or a boat, he's gonna shove and you're gonna call, so a check is bad here. If you check, you make no more if you're good but if you're bad you lose the same amount either way. Might as well get it in so that you can get paid off considering you're losing it all if you're no good no matter what.

08-07-2008 , 11:02 AM

sence25

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,676

shoving is so cool here

08-07-2008 , 11:23 AM

#10

TPTK77

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,438

since he's donkish, i think this is a spot where villain is likely to call a shove with Tx, maybe worse, but will not bet it.

i'd stick it in

08-07-2008 , 11:29 AM

#11

orlov

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 7,176

thats the best river in the deck omg sweet, now push

08-07-2008 , 01:11 PM

#12

Mrage

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 4,916

Yeah I think you guys are so right, I butchered it. I'm so used to letting donks hang themselves on the river but more of his range is weaker pairs than it is missed draws on this board texture. I should have bet a bit more on the turn to make it an easier shovel on the river anyway. I hate missing value against whales, ugh. I didn't realize there was only a psb left when I made the OP btw, b/f isn't really an option. Thanks guys!

08-07-2008 , 01:15 PM

#13

shark_fishin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,085

id shove it in, theres only 56 and 89 u can induce from, so i think betting gets more value, and hes never folding a T if u shove.

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