I run a 20/17/2.9 with a 66% CB.

Villain is a standard TAG, prob on the tight-weak end like myself, I have 600 hands on him, he's a 20/15/3.1 with a 12% cpfr.

I just felt very confused by this situation even though it would seem standard. I wanted to extract value from my set but not pay off the nuts. At the same time I didn't want to put him solely on QJ but I did feel like that was a very strong part of his range among other semi-connected paint/high-end combos. Meanwhile 3-betting the flop seemed likely to only get action from cards I was behind to. Calling the flop and checking turn or river options seemed like a very weak play. Maybe an appropriate stop and go type action here based off of future board texture?

What would be the standard or appropriate line to take from here?


Poker Stars $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $197.00
Hero (CO): $210.30
BTN: $200.00
SB: $206.25
BB: $380.50
UTG: $334.75

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is CO with 9 9
2 folds, Hero raises to $6, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15.00) 9 T K (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BTN raises to $24, Hero

85 to go
call shove

is 3-betting the only appropriate/standard line here?

(villain did not have QJ and I'm definitely not trying to dramatize any cooler here btw)

68 imo

yes

3 bet big and commit

this.

that seems silly. 3bet small and give villain room to spaz is much better.

What range are we assigning villain? Given the fact he didnt 3 bet us, I gave him 22-JJ, ATo-AQo, ATss-AQss, KJss-KQss, 89ss-JTss. Does this sound about right?

thanks

deuce

Definitely 3 bet/get it in. I'd make it ~70 to give the illusion of FE if he has a draw.

Given this is CO vs BTN his range is pretty wide and it's unlikely he has us oversetted since TT usually repops pre, and KK almost always does. Most of the time if we're behind, it's going to be to QJ, which we have 10 outs against. So obv we're never folding, it's just a question of how best to get the money in.

A smallish 3 bet is probably best here is due to board texture. We want him to stack off now with both draws and made hands before his perceived equity changes on the turn. If he has a draw and it misses on the turn, or if he has a made hand and the draw comes in, he might get away from his hand. We want to get the money in now so he can't get away from a hand like T9 or a SD+FD. By making sizing the 3bet on the smaller side, he'll be more apt to jam with a draw since he'll expect to have at least some fold equity (which of course he does not).

Too tight.

He's OTB facing a CO open, I don't think hes folding hands like QJs, A9s, QT, KT, 87s, etc. You can't really put people on an exact range in these situations, but it's almost certainly looser than the range you gave imo.

when is the last time anyone has ever bluff 3b this board?

so what do you suggest? call? 3b shove to protect?
3bet is easily the best option, and 3bet small is better than 3betting so big that villain knows 100% he has zero FE.
dont see how you can argue against this.

well, i was just pointing out that noone ever bluff 3b's this board.

i feel like when someone raises a FD on this board, they are planning on getting it in. i feel like people just call with the fd's they don't want to get it in with.

my point would simply be that 3b'ing this big looks a bit weaker like a draw, while 3b'ing it smaller looks more like QJ.

just my thoughts.

ah ok i see your point.
not a bad one either.

I agree with 68

sit belt needed!