Villain is playing 20/5/5.5 over 25 hands. No real reads yet.


[converted_hand][hand_history]Cake Poker, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #14804771

Hero (BB): $310 (155 bb)
MP: $222.13 (111 bb)
UTG $200 (100bb)[/B]
CO: $112.88 (56.5 bb)
BTN: $353.43 (176.6 bb)
SB: $331.24 (165.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A K
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB limps $1, BB raises to $8, SB calls $6

Flop: ($16) 4 7 A (2 players)
SB bets $8, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($32) A (2 players)
SB bets $34, Hero calls $34

River: ($96) J (2 players)
SB bets $265, Hero ???????

why does it say $2/4?

I see what you're thinking on the flop; we're 150bb, don't know how to react to a 3b and can bet every turn when checked to, and we're not worried about his air. But so far he's passive and even tho he donked: it's only for half pot and we can def expect the raise flop, bet turn, decide river line to charge his draws/single pair hands and not get raised all that often. fwiw I'd b/f the turn and prob call a flop 3b and make a river decision (likely fold) if he ends up jamming.

ott i can't see not raising for clear value; there just not enough evidence to think that he's donking sets or aces up and no K7 Ax or flush draws

as played i think river is a fold; if he doesn't think you'd slowplay an Ace then he'd prob just continue to pot it if he's bluffing

edit: i should clarify that I don't read too much into betsizes from likely fish; but ott they can def pot with like 99 for protection or a draw because even inexperienced players think intuitively that if the big card pairs its hard for you to have a third matching one (disregarding that you raised pre) and that it is in fact scary when someone bets any board pairing card (especially the ACE). + we also know that fish universally suck at value betting so thinking that he'll jam worse Ax aside from maybe AQ or a chop is not likely.

My logic behind flatting the turn was that his air range seems pretty heavy here also if he bricks a draw which he will 4/5 times then he will most likely pot the river. I could see raising turn as well since my hand is so strong and I will most likely charge his draws but I lose out on all his air hands but probably get stacked on his sets. But also probably take a decent flip from lower Ax hands. But then you say he might have 99 in his range as well and I doubt he calls a raise here on turn. I think raising turn might be better but it is close.

I'd raise flop... Think he'll be calling with a lot of hands, and likely only 3b if he has us beat.

River I really want to call, but it's probably a fold without knowing a little more about him?

He looks like the type of player that could be crazy, but I don't think we can call until we have a few more points of evidence...

Yeah you're 2:1 vs his Ax+ if he limp calls them all, including AA

You do have a point about his potting a bricked flushdraw; but even that comes in 20%, we don't know that he will pot and even then the pot would only be $96, your turn raise will be at least 60% of that; so when you leave the remainder vs the equity missing from not stacking worse Ax, I think you're missing out.
^this is assuming you weren't planning on jamming the river.

wow sick.god i really would want to call in game. without more info it seems like a spew, abuse, punch monitor fold and post on 2+2 kind of a hand.

Call

No one thinks villain is capable of spewing here? his line looks so full of ****, I know he's passive, but wouldn't he c/r all sets/2p on the flop a high% of the time? AJ kinda makes sense and once he pots turn and then overbets so big it is pretty scary, but because of how concealed our hand strength is, I don't think I can fold in game, pretty gross spot, I don't play good enough to fold here.

i was really thinking of wat you say in your first line b4 i posted intially
I just imagine that he has so much spew with this line, as i said in game i may call.
I mean u c sum funky **** in spots like this... pp like 99,busted fd, and other random spew

raise / raise / fold.

Call. You have the top of your range. If you're folding AK, you're only calling AJ which seems terrible.

I raise flop, though.

yeah raise flop for value/protection.

as played, i think folding river is okay...you've been showing that u want to call down so far throughout the hand, all the draws bricked out, and he still goes for max value - it looks to me like he thinks ur gonna call and wants to make the most out of it. He can't really have AQ or AT because of preflop, so basically can't be betting worse for value, and i can't really recall ever having seen anyone choose this sizing as a pure bluff,

He puts you on AK. Turbomuck.

How do you know? You don't really know much about him other than he's not very good. Not very good means seldom putting people on a range and not very good means often playing their own hand. I think, then, it's way more likely that he's just thinking "OMG I've got trips" without thinking what could pay him off.

You don't think it's a problem folding 95-99% of your range on the river if you fold AK?

Basically, the best we can do in a spot like this, for it not to be a guessing game, is to play as unexploitable as possible. This means calling the strongest hand we've got on the river, and AK is definitely among these.

lol call obv

+1 for calling.

i call pretty quickly and i dont feel too bad if he turns up something better. this could be any Ax from an unknown just as easily as it is a hand that beats you.

the betsizing is totally consistent with "oh i made top pair" -> "wow now i have trips" -> "he keeps calling my hand must be best!"

and, yeah, you keep calling. lots of people might think AT is the nuts here.