$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

SB: $139.76 (69.9 bb)
BB: $200 (100 bb)
MP: $248.48 (124.2 bb)
CO: $231.80 (115.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $200 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q A
MP raises to $6, CO folds, Hero calls $6, SB calls $5, BB folds

Flop: ($20) 9 A 3 (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets $14, Hero calls $14, SB folds

Turn: ($48) T (2 players)
MP checks, Hero?

River: 5 (2 players)

SB was 33/20 over 34 hands, no reads but he had min-3bet vs BT.
MP is a good reg playing 21/18 over 4.6k hands, cbets 71% and 51% turn, 29% WTSD, 49% WWSF, is a bit stationy but you already know that from stats(he has called down with AJhi on a low connected board BB vs my CO open after his FD missed)

Worst hand you Vbet OTT and worst flop float?
If you are not betting AJs OTT(i assume not), are you vbetting OTR?
Mainly just interested if you float air OTF or just expect people to pay you off without any air in your range.

Dont really have any air in my turn range after flop. Myb worst case some 9x.

In to remind me to look at this later.

If you feel like giving me your range I will do some maths and try to come up with a balanced flop range that leaves us defending the proper number of combinations.

In either case, I would float this flop with JTs (, and ).

I think making a small value-bet with our worst Ace is fine because that bet will be probably less than that which our opponent will make on the river if their turn check is a pot control move.

That being said, I am value-betting AJs OTT because I am value-betting 99, 22, T9, TT and AT-A9 in addition to bluffing with my floats.

You're probably not flatting 22, AT or A9 BTN v MP, but if you are that's an argument for checking back AJ anyway, particularly given how little air you have in your range on the turn.

not understanding why you need to include AJs in balancing your turn range. Aren't we balanced enough without including that specific hand (AQ, for example, allows us to do that, does it not)?

Yeah I think I check back all my AJ.

I'm probably 50/50 between betting and checking AQ. If it was HU it would be an easy bet. It makes it hard with the flop being 3 way.

If I think he bets all his AK on the turn I'll bet AQ.

Yes in fact I think that checking back AJ is probably better since the presence of a third player should narrow our range considerably. Thanks for pointing that out everyone.

why not? especially 22

3bet preflop.

Reviewed this spot alot and spoken over 10 hours+ with friends about AQo in particular. AQo is nearly always a 3bet from any open, unless you are IN BB.

Trust me Ant. Your winrate will be higher!

Seems bad to me

Me too, and thanks for the replies all.

bet obv not close

Assuming an opponent is playing GTO, we cannot profitably 3-bet AQo for value vs. a 25% range. So, that takes care of opponents who open UTG-CO, though I need to look at maths for BTN-SB ranges which will be wider.

thats pretty sad for you... as its wrong

Is this so? I'm not so sure.
dodgybob said we have "very little air" in our range, but is that really the optimal way to play the hand? We probably have a lot of MPs aces and also a lot of his cbetting range (since he cbets fairly wide) dominated, isn't it suboptimal to continue with a "very little air" range on the flop, since the goal should be to extract the maximum with our strong Ax+ hands?

And regarding dodgybob's argument that since we have so little air on the turn we should check back the turn with AJ? Why is that so, since the air doesn't get thinner by checking everything back? You can put all your air into a turn check-back range, then your turn betting range will be too strong. Or you can put all your air in a turn-betting range, then obv... your check-back turn/bet river range will be too strong. And you can split the air up, and it will still be too strong...
So either way, we would end up betting a fifth pot on turn or river, just because we don't have enough air. But our value range certainly dominates MPs turn checking range.

However, if we just bet - for instance - our whole flop calling range on the turn, so "merging" basically, MP probably can't just fold AK on the turn - or AQ - not even AJ.
How about that?

Would we still only be allowed to bet only fifth pot? Don't think so.

jm2c from a uNL donk.

The thing we should keep an eye on, of course, is that we don't wanna be exploitable by floating too wide so that MP can cbet turn 100% and turn a profit. But that shouldn't be too hard. Although this would be a far-fetched assumption at SSNL. Even nowadays.

Nvm.

our flop-calling range is narrower b/c of the third player, sorry should have mentioned that.

yeah, sorry, should have mentioned that it shouldn't. not significantly.

but just m2c. micros-stuff. don't bother.

What hands do you suggest we can profitably float the flop cbet with?

Good question. I'm not having an answer. But I suggest "more than JTs".
Now, as I said there should be a balance between our turn folding range and a turn betting range. So what do you think would be appropriate? And why let's not go from there? I think that would be a viable approach.

Edit: no, that approach would be total humbug, because our range is so much more value-heavy. Sorry, total humbug.

if you value bet this hand on the river after checking back turn it needs to be sized small against anyone decent given theres close to 0 bluff combos in your range (unless its an exploitive play baring a read). turn would be thinish, but fine if you balance by bluffing atleast all of your 9x

wow, is that your lesson from this? deep stuff!

#omfg #pplrdumb #pgcmafia #etc

Yeah, if turn wasn't a T(giving me 2pairs maybe more sets), i'd have ~6combos 9x(if I called them OTF). If I'm not betting AJs, and AQ is only worth 1 street(so i'd mostly check back turn), and I add TJs, that works out fine. Though, checking back turn and bluffing river with 9x to balance most of my AQ, it seems a bit wierd, I wonder if he c/fs much better vs that line.

If we give SB a pre calling range of JJ-22, AQ-A9, A8s-A4s, KQ-KT, K9s, QJ-QT, Q9s-J9s, JTs-65s they have 255 combos after card removal, 66 for TP+ and 33 for middle pair. So SB should fold to a c-bet over 60% of the time. On a flop like 6s5d4d villain would be calling more. After doing this I think I may be playing too fit-or-fold in 3-way pots.