Such a sick spot. I seriouslly just wanna puke, Villain is Marc Karam, an aggressive and good regular. he plays like 12+ tables of rush

It looks like a fold to me, but my friend claims that its a call because folding will lose us money and calling will chop the pot majority of the time since theres only like 2 combos of hands that beat us


Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $124.75
CO: $691.00
BTN: $329.05
SB: $703.10
BB: $1712.40
Hero (UTG): $501.85

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is UTG with K T
Hero raises to $6, 4 folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($13.00) T 9 6 (2 players)
BB bets $11, Hero calls $11

Turn: ($35.00) 9 (2 players)
BB requests TIME, BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($35.00) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $46, BB requests TIME, BB raises to $1695.40 all in, Hero requests TIME

You can't possibly fold this. You'll run into 99 a couple of times, but this is virtually always A9 or A10.

pretty sure marc knows its not very profitable to call for a chop, and your hand looks a lot like ax right?

I dont understand, if marc knows my hand looks like A high whats the point in shoving?

maybe u meant to say that marc knows its not very profitable to call for a chop and our hand looks like Tx, so rather then call or raise for the chop he shoves to try to get me to fold a chop?

On second thought, you might be right. . . but wouldn't it also be -EV for villain to ship here?

Sorry misread the HH. Yeah my point was that if he puts you on the same hand it's pretty profitable to try to get you to fold since you have to be right such a high % of the time.

I mean like yeah u could definatly be right. But since were so deep i think it needs alot of careful analyse cos it could be a pretty huge mistake if we make the wrong descission

We need like 44%+ here in equity, which means he basically needs to jam EVERY 10 he could possible have here to make a call good.

He literally needs to call pre/play AT-JT, T9s, T8s this way every time to entertain calling. Not impossible, but I think I'm leaning towards fold.

If he could ever play a 9 this way it becomes a snap call, but really, I can't see that happening from a decent reg.

I tend to often just muck in these spots as I feel most villains overbetting ranges are almost only value hands. But a good aggressive regular in this spot is more likely to realize the value in avoiding a split that many people probably just let it go this deep making it probably a very profitably play.

About your range:

1. You basically never has the str flush (assuming you don't open 87s UTG)
2. You basically never has quards. This deep it'd be crazy to check them behind on the turn.

So if he is good he'll realize this and shove every Tx and may even bluff air if he feels you'll avoid a split most of the time. This is both good for you because the more he is shoving his Tx hands, the less% will be a nut hand.

Normally BB vs UTG he isn't going to call with a lot of Tx hands. But lets assume because you are deep he'll call with a lot of Txs.

Below are 3 examples of 3 different weighted ranges, hard to say which is the most accurate:

Range 1 - Wide
Splits: ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, T8s = 6 combos (66%)
Nuts: 99, 87dd = 2 combos (22%)
Random bluffs = 1 combos (11%)

Lets try and plug these numbers in. Pot is 81 so if we call we are risking 438 to win 40,5.

We split 66%, lose 22%, catch a bluff 11%
,66*40,5 = 26,73
,22*(-438) = -96,36
,11*519 = 57,09
= -$12,54 EV
------------------------

Range 2 - Tighter, no pure bluffs
Splits: ATs, JTs, T9s (3 combos)
Nuts: 99 (1 combo)
0% pure bluff

,75*40,5 = 30,38
,25*(-438) = -109,5
= -$79,12 EV
------------------------

Range 3 - Tighter, 10% pure bluffs
Total range: (4,4 total combos)
Splits: ATs, JTs, T9s (3 combos)
Nuts: 99 (1 combo)
10% pure bluff (0,44 combo)

,682*40,5 = 27,62
,227*(-438) = -99,43
,10*(519) = 51,9
= -$19,91 EV
------------------------

None of these ranges turned out to show a profit. For there to be a profit I think villain hast to bluff pure air 15%+ of the time and I doubt anyone has the guts to try and move people off full houses so frequently even if deep.

So I think it's a fold.

no way we can fold this ever.

whats more likely villain checked the turn with top pair or quads?

these type of hands are why the internet is fun

Your friend is wrong. Folding doesn't lose you money- the money you bet on the river is no longer part of your stack and is now part of the pot. Folding is 0 EV.

When you call and chop, you win $40 (half the dead money in the pot). When you call and lose, you lose $440. So, let's say villain either has a better hand (2 combos) or a chop, and he has exactly 22 combos of Tx hands in his range- calling is 0 EV, the same as folding.

This is a fold. Villain has to be pretty ******ed to ever have anything worse than Tx here, given that's exactly what your hand looks like and trying to fold someone off top boat is ******ed, even 250 BB deep. It's highly unlikely he even has 22 combos of Tx hands in his calling range pre, let alone c/shoves that many combos on the river. And the 2 combos of better possible hands are fairly likely to take exactly this line.

What makes you guys so convinced that villain has a ten based on action, most notably the flop?

also note that hero overbet the river which I think is poor since the only bluffs we can represent are qj and kj and a number of them bet are expected to fire on the turn. Or overpairs turned into bluffs if you want to be generous with our bluffing range.

would this aggressive and good player actually check a set once then check quads twice?

also if he has case Ten then its the same as 99 to him given our action

this isnt a sick spot. just fold.

He would be stupid bluffing like this cause he can't estimate that you fold Tx just because he represents two better hand-combinations. You 'd fold 9x most of the time, but would you overbet the river with 9x?

That beeing said, his range is 99, 78 and some, but not many Tx-hands.

I like the post of Kalledrengen above and would strongly recommend folding. The risk-reward-ratio can't justify a call.

This is like the easiest fold with a boat ever imo.