Hi,

SB is a 2p2er and a solid thinking reg. He has just sat down at a 100nl w/ antes table and bought in deep (200). I have no significant stats on him at this time.

I have a very aggro image at the table and am running something like 32/30 and 3betting 15%.

My thinking: My check on the flop was an accident because I had other tables up but SB obviously doesn't know this. I raised the turn because I feel like a lot of 100nl regs don't and this is a great spot for value because it looks so bluffy and hes never folding a jack. On the river I think its a pretty clear value bet and then to my shock he jams.

Discussion questions: would you call here? do you think he c/shoves 5x for value? does he take the same line with 98 (double gutty on turn)? can he have other value hands besides 77, 65, and in some crazy world 66?

Thanks Cats.

Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $306.45
UTG: $121.30
Hero (CO): $360.20
BTN: $45.95
SB: $198.60

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with A J
1 fold, Hero raises to $4.50, 1 fold, SB calls $4, 1 fold

Flop: ($10.00) 5 5 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($10.00) J (2 players)
SB bets $8.00, Hero raises to $26, SB calls $18

River: ($62.00) 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $42.00, SB raises to $167.90, Hero vomits all over the keyboard and???

yes he can check shove a 5 for value, and fold river

anyone else?

i dont know too many 100 regs capable of turning their hand into a bluff here given how turn and river played out. how quickly did it take him to call the turn then ch/shove river?

i think its a fold and im pretty content with it.

dont forget 9h8h

the fact you have the Ah makes this an easy fold

As played fold, but i flat turn bet here.

you don't think we lose a decent amount of value by not raising this turn? We almost always have the nuts and no one is ever going to fold a jack.

I'm the villain in this hand fwiw... all I'm going to say at this point is your hand looks exactly like AJ on the turn here, after checking back flop then raising turn. Also turn raise is pretty bad here, there are going to be tons of villains at 100nl that turn 77/air into a bluff here and it's far more profitable to call 2 streets and get value from other Jx/smaller pp/air hands.

edit. hero is pf raiser.

Cbet flop. call turn. river fold as played.

Agree. I'm pretty sure that you're cooked.

flat the turn, fold now.

also, cbetting the flop is bad... so nice misclick.

why is betting this flop bad?

This is only a bad board to cbet if you are incapable of winning the pot on the later streets

thats what im saying...this is a fun board to barrel deep...I think cbetting is pretty standard..

The problem with cbetting it is you are often going to have to fire 3 barrels and 99% of 2p2ers are giant vaginas who end up giving up on their bluff on the river way too often

there's nothing that makes me happier than bombing river and praying he times out.

dont really like the turn raise. whats your plan if he re-raises you there? also he may indeed fold a j being deep and OOP but how often does he really have one? do you know anything about his donking range there?

as far as the hand goes - looks like a fold. id be more inclined to call if the river wasnt a 6 and both straights/flushes missed.

Getting into the discussion of why and why not to cbet this flop would take way too much. The basis of your reasoning should be substantiated by how often you expect yourself to make mistakes on later streets when checking back. The more often you expect to make mistakes due to villain's ability to disguise hands... the more often it becomes correct to cbet. At 100nl vs standard regs, cbetting is much more viable because they play low PPs for what they are, and turn them into bluffs less on the flop than theoretically optimal. That said, once they do call one- they are more tempted to call multiple streets ime... but I havent played these limits in a while. Hope that was helpful in clearing up my previous post. And yes, I agree that the river is a v clear valuebet.

Thanks - that was helpful - so the consensus is that raising turn is a bad idea even though there is value to be had? Will most villians fire a thin vbet on the river with any J and allow me to get two streets? And if he is donking a draw he'll likely call a raise...there are a few of those in his range I suppose... Also - do you think he is jamming 9h8h on the river for value everytime even after I raise a paired board on the turn?

This is actually a great board to cbet, there are so many turns which villain just cant continue with given his calling range on the flop. The only reason you wouldnt cbet a board like this is if youve seen someone c/r it with something like 88 for value.

Also i think our value in cbetting here comes from making villain make mistakes on later streets rather than cbetting just cause ya think we'll play bad on turn/riv if we check.

Raising the turn to get value from a small part of his range (Jx) loses value from the rest of his range including air and underpairs. Could even raise the river depending on his betsizing.

he can def jam the river with 98hh for value. You just cant have a full house here.

Dude has 77 or 55 imo most always. I would put him full much more than I would anything else because people are nits when raised so he prob only c/c down rivered straight

fold river but you're overplaying raising turn and betting river versus most people.

I don't mind betting flop setting up a triple barrel so no betting the flop isn't bad, can be vs. some players if they XR a lot or never fold med. strength hands to 3 barrels.

raising the turn isn't bad either, and I actually like it where villain can vb/call w/worse Jx hands and draws, caveat if villain is the type to "turn stuff into bluffs" and make you miserable w/3b's then don't raise that player unless you plan on getting it in (and you'll know the guys because at 100NL those players will be spewing off stacks like popcorn), but vs. the vast vast vast vast majority of 100NL it's fine.

definitely a fold on the river, you need a pretty sick metagame/read/history with a guy to make this call, basically putting him on a missed heart draw or turning a J into a bluff, it's like never the case at these stakes, it's always mr. cool with a flush/boat.

fyi all the cool kids are playing 40% vpip and 3b'ing 20% these days, 32% and 15% is so passe. sometimes you gotta outfonz the fonz if you know what I'm sprayin'!

youre my kinda guy