Villain is a regular - 21/17/1.9, 3b: 4.4%, raise cbet: 15%, fold to cbet: 42%

NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($100)
BB ($116.39)
Hero ($100)
CO ($100)
BTN ($42.98)

Dealt to Hero K A

Hero raises to $3.50, CO calls $3.50, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($8.50) 4 J K

Hero bets $6.36, CO raises to $20

Hero?

I usually call in these spot, as can do this with fd, QT (maybe also
with gutters if he is aggro). But considering that we are oop, i dont mind
a fold on the flop.

Board: Kd Jd 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.520% 24.36% 00.16% 4341 28.50 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 75.480% 75.32% 00.16% 13422 28.50 { JJ, 44, AdQd, AdTd, Ad4d, KJs, QdTd, QsTs, Td9d, KJo }

The c/r range that you gave vill. seems a little bit to nitty.
I think you can add naked nfd, and some naked QT combos. I would
also give him a few weaker bluff combos (AT,AQ e.g).

How many hands on villain? 1.9 is pretty low.

that's not villain's c/r range. let's be realistic here.

also even if it were... we can go ahead and call flop raise and get it in on the turn by c/shoving. and if he does check back, well that sorta defines his range rather easily as a draw doesn't it?

I think I'm just shipping the flop OOP, and the above ranges are ridiculous.

Edit: unless you are a huge nit yourself

I love it when ppl want to believe that their std nl100 reg is raising KJx flop wide vs a 1st position open and cbet.

Do people treat the UTG position that seriously 5 handed?

if it makes you feel any better, I'm a winning nl100 reg who will occasionally 3 bet a polarized range here... even against an utg pfr. idk just saying ppl really don't know how to play oop against a raise here and will mostly just be playing a merged value range that is just so super transparent no matter what they do

Where does his 15% raise cbet come from then, if he only raises the nuts and draws that flip vs sets?

as always, sample size and reads are everything

with the info given there could be 10 different correct lines. this spot is a pretty good example of the perils of doing nothing but clicking on a hud pop up when you get confused

if it makes you feel any better, I'm a winning nl100 reg who will occasionally 3 bet a polarized range here... even against an utg pfr. idk just saying ppl really don't know how to play oop against a raise here and will mostly just be playing a super strong value range that is just so super transparent no matter what they do (i.e. the fact that you're contemplating folding AK here just further bolsters my point that the hands that you're really thinking about continuing are so super nutted) ofc you can like re-adjust by 4 betting light or by calling oop with a more merged value range but I really doubt you're gonna be able to play profitably against me oop even if you do this. just sayin

btw my previous post, I'm using "merged value range" incorrectly... more like just super nutted value range lol

I fold this and don't feel unhappy about it.

We do not stand up well equitywise against his range. If we 3b then he just folds all of his trash range or weak draws and gets in it in with his sets/2pair/strong draws which we do not stand up well against. If we simply call then he can value bets us in position on the turn with his strong holdings, bluff in position when scare cards hit, choose to take a free card with draws or simply correctly give up with his trashier holdings when a safe turn card hits.

why yes, if you choose to exclude all bluffs and every single worse value hand, a one pair hand has bad equity. thank you for demonstrating that.

very well said, especially the bold part (emphasis mine).

That range isn't too far off in terms of hands he's shoving over if we 3bet... I'd get rid of KJo and add maybe 1 or 2 more Axdd (so yeah, roughly 30%).

I dont mind a fold here, but could also be happy to 3bet/get it in if he raise/folds a decent amount.
Do you have ANY reads?

With nothing to go off other than raise cbet 15%, its somewhat close, but I'd probably just fold

Notice that this poster did not actually give constructive advice on what to do (even if we assume a generic TAG with little history).

I think calling and folding are both viable options. THough more reads would definitely help I think seeing a turn is usually a good idea. At this level people are very hesitant to double barrel a draw/air on the turn once you call the flop raise so you can usually fold if he fires again. Sounds exploitable I know but in reality it's almost never actually exploited at 100nl.

this is true, i tend to be lazy if OP is (sometimes unintentionally) lazy. i also like to remind people not to be lazy in their initial posts.

in my view, a hand discussion is best if the poster offers not just the spot, but some attempt at articulating his own thoughts on the situation and his options. i used to always make fun of narf because when he was coming up through SSNL he posted a MILLION of these, which always ended with "hero?" now, if i ever send him a spot for discussion i end it with "HERO?!?!????!???"

i recognize some people are completely lost in some spots - perhaps OP in this one. but i think taking a little bit of time to gather some thoughts will help the community. it's worth your time and remember you are asking them for theirs.

Do you seek to balance calling AK here with calling sets? Or are you just seeking to exploit the "give-up" or "one and done" tendency of a lot of these players?

doubt he's looking to balance in this spot. it seems like he thinks people are giving up regardless of having hands stronger than AK in his range

Here is how the hand continued:


FLOP ($8.50) 4 J K

Hero bets $6.36, CO raises to $20, Hero calls $13.64

TURN ($48.50) 4 J K J

Hero checks, CO checks

RIVER ($48.50) 4 J K J T

Hero?

As noted above this range is WAY too tight. Yes against this specific range the Hero is way, way behind, but it's a given that the villian raises the cbet: 15%. The range above is only 2.7%. So we've got to find a lot more hands to get up to the 15%.

JJ, 44, AJo+, AJs+, all Axdd, KQo, KQs, QTo, QTs, 9Tdd, KJo+, KJs+ still only comes up to ~8+%. There's still a lot more hands that need to be included here.

It wasn't indicated how the villian played big hands like AA, KK, QQ preflop. It seems that most assume that because he didn't 3bet PF that these hands are excluded. But what if he mixes them up limping some times?

Including AA, KK, QQ however only brings the possible hands up to 10.2%
So we probably also have to add TT, 99, 88 and prolly 77 plus some xxdd connectors and xxdd one-gappers, and then some pure air. This comes to about 15%

But against this full range of 15% the equities on the flop are
Hero 68.8%
Villain 31.2%

I'd get it in with an overshove OTF.

Seems pointless to bet

(We've almost always got the best hand but we cant really expect anything to call. Villain will occasionally have checked back the nuts on the turn, and will occassionally have binked with AQ on the river... But he's basically never calling worse)

You literally have no idea