Villain is 14/10/3 over 20 hands. 17% ats
I have seen him cbet 2 out of 2 when he raised the BTN and an ace flopped. Both of those pots didn't see a turn.
FWIW, I'm playing 24/18 over about 75 hands at that table.

In this hand, based on my read, I wanted to c/r the flop and hope he had something like AQ/AJ.


Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $137.10
BTN: $100.00
SB: $100.50
Hero (BB): $121.10
UTG: $71.45
MP: $192.90

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with K A
3 folds, BTN raises to $2.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($5.50) A K 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($5.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3

River: ($11.50) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $9, BTN raises to $20.50, Hero requests TIME

Question is, do we call or raise? If we raise, do we make it around $55 or do we jam?

This can be QQ and KQ and I'm leaning more towards KQ looking at the bet sizing. I'd raise around 50-55 and call a shove.

The only hands that make sense are kq and qq, Do you think he calls a shove with kq?

A jam may scare KQ off so I'd rather raise/call

fwiw I'd bet 4 on the turn(I'd also 3bet pre). Also I wouldn't jam seeing as villain most likely won't call with worse but only cards that beat 2pair.

if you raise small I doubt he ever shoves kq

In his eyes you can easily have all better 2 pairs, sets and straights so I prob just call

He's got a nitty opening range, so I didn't want to 3bet and have to fold to a 4bet. Also gives me room to play back at him on the right flops since he's a nit.

I didn't put him on AQ or any other hand with an ace in it since I assume he will bet all these on the flop.

If we raised, we're priced in for a call if he shoves. FWIW, I'm pretty sure he will call a 3bet on this river with KQ.

You have 20 hands on the guy. 3b/fold would be TERRIBLE in a resteal spot like BTN open/BB 3b.

3b is almost certainly going to be more profitable than flatting with the given info.

flat river i don't think he's calling a three bet with his thin value range here, and he's never shoving worse

3bet preflop and get it in if possible

Call river, not much value in reraising there, only getting called by better.

call river very possible J10 in this spot, only hand that makes a ton of sense... ud think hed c-bet again if he flopped any A or any real strength it might be a value with KQ and easy fold to a 3 bet but calling is the safe option no reason to risk ur stack here

you think that he would reshove kq enough to call it? he could easily have jt or qq which make the most sense after kq

just call the river

I think 10 j is pretty discounted here. How many of you guys would flat with the gutshot and 2 unders on the turn here? Doesn't seem like a very profitable spot to just call. I think, as many have said, his range is heavily weighted to KQ/QQ. The sizing definitely looks like KQ, but I'd still just call the river instead of 3betting- maybe I'm missing value? If he NEVER folds KQ to a 3bet on river, then 3bet but I think he finds a fold a decent percentage of the time w KQ and always calls w QQ/strangely played 10j... I flat river. As someone else said, 3bet pre, and as played, bet bigger on turn.

yeah spot on ^

i would absolutely flat this river

i flat this here sometimes mostly for this specific reason

call river

This just looks so much like KQ here that foldings out of the question. The option of 3betting the river isn't great as you (or at least I..) wouldn't 3bet the river with AJ/AT vs. such an opponent, and a good thinking opponent will realise this.

I think calling here is the correct play.

Did you end up calling this river? Oh, and are you still coaching? I might PM you soon about it if you are.

Yes I still am coaching.

Wishful thinking to c/r hoping he has AQ and AJ considering you will end up getting him to play those hands more passively anyway.

Bet more on turn and no other way to play the river than call. I do think he has JTcc in his range but other than that it feels like a set/ worse two pair but not enough there to get value you from with a river 3 bet.

I don't think he calls a 3 bet with KQ, I think flatting is fine against this player.