Villain is a 21/15 through 200 hands with a 15% 3b out of the BB and 11% overall. Don't have a large sample on him but his PF AF is 1 and it decreases by street. His river AF is .5. I wasn't necessarily giving up on the hand on the turn but his river AF is so low and that bet looks so value bettish I don't beat anything but a bluff (which I don't see being likely against this guy) and a ******ed AK or AQ which I can't see him betting either. And yeah I should have bet the flop bigger.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
SB ($111)
BB ($121)
CO ($101)
Hero ($144)

Dealt to Hero A J

fold, Hero raises to $2.50, fold, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $7.50

FLOP ($20.50) A T 7

BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13

TURN ($46.50) A T 7 J

BB checks, Hero checks

RIVER ($46.50) A T 7 J 7

BB bets $30, Hero

B/c turn imo. The # of flushes in both of your ranges is limited because of the A/J/T out there, the fact that you would raise most FDs on the flop (KQss, Q9ss maybe, 89ss and 7xss) and that he would bet his flushes ott some % of the time.

If he realizes this (the fact that you rarely have a flush), there's quite some value to be had from worse hands: Ax with a spade, AT/JT, KxKs, ...

This of course depends of your own image.

Also, as played, as you rarely have a flush (or another nuttish hand), he could easily be vb'ing worse otr, making the river an easy call as played.

Edit: didn't see villain c/c flop. This increases the # of FDs in your range but further decreases the # in his range. Leaning more towards b/f turn now (you do well vs his c/c range but not so well vs his c/shove range).

Turn seems like a pretty mandatory bet - what's your logic behind checking?

How often do you think he actually checks a FD on this flop oop?

ya, bet/call turn. He almost never has you beat here..

As played you have to call. Checking the turn makes the hand easier to play I think but that hand helps all of his range that is drawing so I can't really fault you for pot controlling.

I don't think he does it a lot but I don't think it's nonexistant either because he's pretty passive. He only cbet 55% of hands through the small sample.

i don't like preflop, AJo is doing terribly against a guy 3betting your MP raise and you don't have any history. as played b/c turn, checking there is bad because he is calling down with AK/AQ/KKs/QQs

I was button. But yeah I'm leaning more toward bet call turn now given these opinions..

ah my b button is good assuming he 3bets light

+1....as played call river bet

1. no relevance since small sample
2. 3b pot instead of raised
3. best spot to cbet

Bet/call turn yo, as stated earlier (smart guys on here)