100nl - Top 2 facing spazzy river overbet jam - Small Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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100nl - Top 2 facing spazzy river overbet jam

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11-02-2011 , 08:27 AM

LOLdonkaments.

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,773

Villain is 43/33 over 31 hands, basically an unknown fish and readless. Had done nothing out of the ordinary prior to this hand but I think he bought in for less than 100bb so I kinda knew he was a bit fishy.

Clearly he's not repping anything value but then again it's hard for him to show up with a bluff ... 98 turning itself into a bluff is weird, maybe some broadway floats that turned a FD that are spazzing out now when it all bricked. Call because he might be doing this with some A8 or worse two pair? Trying to check if I'm sane.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: $102.40 (102.4 bb)
CO: $140.20 (140.2 bb)
Hero (BTN): $232.45 (232.5 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $114.75 (114.8 bb)
UTG: $101.05 (101.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A

3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($5.50) A

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4

Turn: ($13.50) 4

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10.50, BB calls $10.50

River: ($34.50) 8

(2 players)
BB bets $97.75 and is all-in, Hero calls $97.75

11-02-2011 , 08:35 AM

magodeoz84

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,610

I think you can call there. His line is really weird, but I'd guess you see enough worse hands to call.

To be honest I have no idea what he's doing this with, but AT is pretty strong on this board so I just wouldn't fold it.

11-02-2011 , 08:43 AM

Sirrybob

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 1,261

Wow...
It could be A8 - but it could also be J9 or 88 or 44. Really tough spot. I'd call ingame but folding might be better. You need to be good 40% of the time - I'm not sure you find a spazz/A8 enough.

11-02-2011 , 08:49 AM

wishiewish

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 11,219

snap call ldo

11-02-2011 , 09:06 AM

COOKIIIIIIIIE

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 615

not folding, doubt he's bluffing but he's really excited about rivering 2p enough of the time. he might fold J9 on the turn unless it's J9cc, but really it's pointless speculating about what he'll show up with because we have a really good hand and he's probably ******ed

11-02-2011 , 09:10 AM

purrretrog

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,596

eugh, I think i always call here but from what ive seen at these stakes an overbet on the river from a fish is pretty much always nutted?

As played I probably snap him off and chuckle as he shows down 5

11-02-2011 , 09:10 AM

bpk616

adept

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,044

Lol turbo fist pump snappp beat him in the pot calll

11-02-2011 , 09:28 AM

lejean80

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,865

He can have all 16 J9 combos and 11 set combos are also possible. You need 43% equity to call which means that he needs to have at least about 20 combos in his range that you have beat. A7/A8/A4 is only 18 combos.

I think this is a fold.

11-02-2011 , 09:39 AM

wishiewish

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 11,219

pretty sure he can have worse 2 pairs other than A7 A8 A4

11-02-2011 , 10:18 AM

#10

Lifeisagrind

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,524

Quote:

Originally Posted by lejean80

so u think he plays all 16 comboes of J9 and all 11 comboes of sets this way 100% of the time

11-02-2011 , 10:53 AM

#11

lejean80

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,865

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lifeisagrind

so u think he plays all 16 comboes of J9 and all 11 comboes of sets this way 100% of the time

The point is, that he also does not play his A7/A8/A4 like this 100% of time.

I don't see any reason to estimate why he should do this more often with A7/A8/A4 than with J9/set or vice versa. This is why I think that it is sufficient to just look for the ratio of hands that beat us and hands that we beat.

11-02-2011 , 11:00 AM

#12

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

folding this everytime

11-02-2011 , 11:54 AM

#13

CoranMoran

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 249

I have seen a set played this way before.
The idea is that the funky river shove looks like a spaztic fish move.
Which, in turn, under-represents his powerful hand.
And thus gets called more often.

But I agree with most, this is 2-pair too often to fold.

Quote:

He can have all 16 J9 combos

Nah.
The J9 gutshot does not deserve full credit after Villain has to call the big flop turn bets.

--CM

11-02-2011 , 02:00 PM

#14

sharkbaitOHH

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 7,170

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoranMoran

lol if you think fish fold gutshots

11-02-2011 , 02:25 PM

#15

Andeeee

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 219

What a donkey. I usually revert to folding this somehow

11-02-2011 , 02:59 PM

#16

COOKIIIIIIIIE

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 615

if villain was 43/5 over 31 hands i might be more inclined to assume he can have all J9, but he's 43/33 so he might not just be a standard passive-calling-station-type fish

11-02-2011 , 08:06 PM

#17

LOLdonkaments.

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 1,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by sharkbaitOHH

lol if you think fish fold gutshots

Would you think it's a fold on the river then?

tbh when I was doing my range analysis I had only one combo of J9s (the one that turned a club draw) in his river range, didn't really expect villain to be (a) flatting 100% of J9 combos pre and (b) c/c'ing twice with just a gutter and no additional draws. I thought that if I were beat, it'd be by a slowplayed flopped set or a rivered set.

11-02-2011 , 09:09 PM

#18

ANONN123

Guest

Posts: n/a

Definitely not fistpumping but don't think I'm ever folding either. Just one of those spots where you click call and prepare to laugh.

11-02-2011 , 09:17 PM

#19

AshleyC

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,278

I seem to never be good here when I call.

11-03-2011 , 02:31 AM

#20

sharkbaitOHH

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 7,170

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOLdonkaments.

no I'm not folding, but it's more because fish can spazz/valueshove worse 2p/value shove an Ace

write it off as cooler if you're beat and take a note

11-03-2011 , 02:52 AM

#21

c=8tation

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 175

the notion that a fish(this fish) would take this line with worse for value is one that is, in my opinion, rather hopeful and an excuse not to make a difficult fold.

I think you should fold here.

11-03-2011 , 03:56 AM

#22

terp

Carnal \ 'Knowledge

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 14,780

Quote:

Originally Posted by lejean80

this is mindblowingly pessimistic. i mean i guess the thread itself is, so i shouldn't harp on you, but wow.

just think: if he can have J9 he can have J8 and a mil other gutshots to bluffjam.

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