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100nl - Top 2 facing spazzy river overbet jam 100nl - Top 2 facing spazzy river overbet jam

11-02-2011 , 08:27 AM
Villain is 43/33 over 31 hands, basically an unknown fish and readless. Had done nothing out of the ordinary prior to this hand but I think he bought in for less than 100bb so I kinda knew he was a bit fishy.

Clearly he's not repping anything value but then again it's hard for him to show up with a bluff ... 98 turning itself into a bluff is weird, maybe some broadway floats that turned a FD that are spazzing out now when it all bricked. Call because he might be doing this with some A8 or worse two pair? Trying to check if I'm sane.

    Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    MP: $102.40 (102.4 bb)
    CO: $140.20 (140.2 bb)
    Hero (BTN): $232.45 (232.5 bb)
    SB: $100 (100 bb)
    BB: $114.75 (114.8 bb)
    UTG: $101.05 (101.1 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with A T
    3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

    Flop: ($5.50) A 7 T (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB calls $4

    Turn: ($13.50) 4 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $10.50, BB calls $10.50

    River: ($34.50) 8 (2 players)
    BB bets $97.75 and is all-in, Hero calls $97.75

    11-02-2011 , 08:35 AM
    I think you can call there. His line is really weird, but I'd guess you see enough worse hands to call.

    To be honest I have no idea what he's doing this with, but AT is pretty strong on this board so I just wouldn't fold it.
    11-02-2011 , 08:43 AM
    Wow...
    It could be A8 - but it could also be J9 or 88 or 44. Really tough spot. I'd call ingame but folding might be better. You need to be good 40% of the time - I'm not sure you find a spazz/A8 enough.
    11-02-2011 , 08:49 AM
    snap call ldo
    11-02-2011 , 09:06 AM
    not folding, doubt he's bluffing but he's really excited about rivering 2p enough of the time. he might fold J9 on the turn unless it's J9cc, but really it's pointless speculating about what he'll show up with because we have a really good hand and he's probably ******ed
    11-02-2011 , 09:10 AM
    eugh, I think i always call here but from what ive seen at these stakes an overbet on the river from a fish is pretty much always nutted?

    As played I probably snap him off and chuckle as he shows down 56
    11-02-2011 , 09:10 AM
    Lol turbo fist pump snappp beat him in the pot calll
    11-02-2011 , 09:28 AM
    He can have all 16 J9 combos and 11 set combos are also possible. You need 43% equity to call which means that he needs to have at least about 20 combos in his range that you have beat. A7/A8/A4 is only 18 combos.

    I think this is a fold.
    11-02-2011 , 09:39 AM
    pretty sure he can have worse 2 pairs other than A7 A8 A4
    11-02-2011 , 10:18 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lejean80
    He can have all 16 J9 combos and 11 set combos are also possible. You need 43% equity to call which means that he needs to have at least about 20 combos in his range that you have beat. A7/A8/A4 is only 18 combos.

    I think this is a fold.
    so u think he plays all 16 comboes of J9 and all 11 comboes of sets this way 100% of the time
    11-02-2011 , 10:53 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Lifeisagrind
    so u think he plays all 16 comboes of J9 and all 11 comboes of sets this way 100% of the time
    The point is, that he also does not play his A7/A8/A4 like this 100% of time.

    I don't see any reason to estimate why he should do this more often with A7/A8/A4 than with J9/set or vice versa. This is why I think that it is sufficient to just look for the ratio of hands that beat us and hands that we beat.
    11-02-2011 , 11:00 AM
    folding this everytime
    11-02-2011 , 11:54 AM
    I have seen a set played this way before.
    The idea is that the funky river shove looks like a spaztic fish move.
    Which, in turn, under-represents his powerful hand.
    And thus gets called more often.

    But I agree with most, this is 2-pair too often to fold.

    Quote:
    He can have all 16 J9 combos
    Nah.
    The J9 gutshot does not deserve full credit after Villain has to call the big flop turn bets.


    --CM
    11-02-2011 , 02:00 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by CoranMoran
    I have seen a set played this way before.
    The idea is that the funky river shove looks like a spaztic fish move.
    Which, in turn, under-represents his powerful hand.
    And thus gets called more often.

    But I agree with most, this is 2-pair too often to fold.


    Nah.
    The J9 gutshot does not deserve full credit after Villain has to call the big flop turn bets.


    --CM
    lol if you think fish fold gutshots
    11-02-2011 , 02:25 PM
    What a donkey. I usually revert to folding this somehow
    11-02-2011 , 02:59 PM
    if villain was 43/5 over 31 hands i might be more inclined to assume he can have all J9, but he's 43/33 so he might not just be a standard passive-calling-station-type fish
    11-02-2011 , 08:06 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sharkbaitOHH
    lol if you think fish fold gutshots
    Would you think it's a fold on the river then?

    tbh when I was doing my range analysis I had only one combo of J9s (the one that turned a club draw) in his river range, didn't really expect villain to be (a) flatting 100% of J9 combos pre and (b) c/c'ing twice with just a gutter and no additional draws. I thought that if I were beat, it'd be by a slowplayed flopped set or a rivered set.
    11-02-2011 , 09:09 PM
    Definitely not fistpumping but don't think I'm ever folding either. Just one of those spots where you click call and prepare to laugh.
    11-02-2011 , 09:17 PM
    I seem to never be good here when I call.
    11-03-2011 , 02:31 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by LOLdonkaments.
    Would you think it's a fold on the river then?

    tbh when I was doing my range analysis I had only one combo of J9s (the one that turned a club draw) in his river range, didn't really expect villain to be (a) flatting 100% of J9 combos pre and (b) c/c'ing twice with just a gutter and no additional draws. I thought that if I were beat, it'd be by a slowplayed flopped set or a rivered set.
    no I'm not folding, but it's more because fish can spazz/valueshove worse 2p/value shove an Ace

    write it off as cooler if you're beat and take a note
    11-03-2011 , 02:52 AM
    the notion that a fish(this fish) would take this line with worse for value is one that is, in my opinion, rather hopeful and an excuse not to make a difficult fold.

    I think you should fold here.
    11-03-2011 , 03:56 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lejean80
    He can have all 16 J9 combos and 11 set combos are also possible. You need 43% equity to call which means that he needs to have at least about 20 combos in his range that you have beat. A7/A8/A4 is only 18 combos.

    I think this is a fold.
    this is mindblowingly pessimistic. i mean i guess the thread itself is, so i shouldn't harp on you, but wow.

    just think: if he can have J9 he can have J8 and a mil other gutshots to bluffjam.

          
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