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100NL - River line weird spot 100NL - River line weird spot

02-25-2010 , 07:32 PM
Villain is weak. His stats are 25/15/2 over 6k hands (which have been datamined). My read is that he plays fit or fold poker. He insta c/f's alot of flops to my cbet because i assume well he misses, but he doesnt even think for a second about playing back or doing anything. When he does hit its usually a insta call and we get to showdown and hes got a peice of the board.

On the river this is such an unusual line by him and im inclined to fold based on our read. But hes making it so cheap and we've got such a strong hand.

Do we stick with our read and fold or do we pay him off if hes gotten creative with a 9?

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $109.05
Hero (CO): $109.95
BTN: $102.05
SB: $100.00
BB: $194.60
UTG: $103.95

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with A Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($10.00) 9 9 6 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($10.00) A (3 players)
SB bets $6, Hero calls $6, BTN folds

River: ($22.00) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB raises to $35, Hero ????
02-25-2010 , 08:43 PM
i'd assume his bluff % here is close to zero, so unless he's taking this line with something like AK i think you're cooked.
02-25-2010 , 08:51 PM
Hmmm.... a 9/66 makes a ton of sense here. Just how a guy like this would play it.

You need 21% here. In practice I probably call, but I can see the case for folding, and it very well could be mathematically correct. Even when you factor is splits w AQ, you don't have the equity. So he has to be bluffing some to justify it. If he never bluffs it's a fold, if he could be, I probably talk myself into a call.

      
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