Hi guys,

Villain plays 33/24 over 460 hands and I have reason to believe he's a recreational player. He tends to type a lot of **** into the chat box and as this hand was being played he typed "how much on the flop????"

He folds to 3bets 80% of the time and 4bets 6.6% (2/30 times)

iPoker - €1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: €92.54
CO: €166.03
Hero (BTN): €315.90
SB: €140.51
BB: €203.90
UTG: €91.40

SB posts SB €0.50, BB posts BB €1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: €1.50) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, CO raises to €3.00, Hero raises to €9.00, fold, fold, CO calls €6.00

Flop: (€19.50, 2 players) 4 8 J
CO checks, Hero bets €12.00, CO raises to €157.03 and is all-in, Now what???

now what indeed. i would call most people here since people tend to be doing this type of play with draws or something like aj a8 with a of diamonds. against this guy though i think he has it here. i dont see him bluffing too often after this type of talk, unless he's one of those guys who show bluffs after **** talking to someone. if he is that type then call.

Pretty weird check shove on the flop, you're probably beat here by the tight fish. It wouldn't surprise me if he flopped a set of 8's or 4's and is terrified of the draws on the board, or he could have top pair with the ace of diamond kicker, either way its a scary race. A fold here wouldn't be a bad play at all, take the $21 dollar lesson and get on to the next hand, you'll eventually catch him with shoves like that. As played, I would fold here.

Wouldn't say his stats seem that tight at all?

I'd call for sure, personally. Reads (LAG stats and recreational sort) make me think he'd do this with the Ace d as stated.

yeah hes def not tight and it is close spot. either play wouldnt be too bad. it depends on how the table dynamics and if he just lost some hands it could skew it more towards a call.

um, seems like an incredibly easy fold 160bb deep

Are we thinking it's only an easy fold because we're 160bb deep? I mean how many made flushes does villain have? Almost none and it's hard to think he's doing this with a set.

I think you may be underestimating the likelihood of a set here. When someone makes a big overraise shove on a monotone board I think they are more likely to be trying to force out any diamonds with a made hand and less likely to be spazzing out with the Ad

Agreed that villain would play naked A of diamonds or Ad + pair more passively.

I folded anyway and was pretty happy with my play, glad most credible responses agree.

Hmm, its a tough spot. 100 bb deep and without the chat I am calling fairly easily. I think there is enough Ad spazz in his range to make it profitable even if we are behind to sets quite often and very occasionally dead.

Given the chat I think its much more likely he has the nuts. I don't see many people typing in the chat box, check raising all in and not having it. If he has the nut flush we're virtually dead and we have no pot odds

Well, there are only two actual hands to worry about, its the AA with a diamond and the KK with a diamond. People will probably try to get me to mention the hand AKd's but that hand involves two streets of play and for you meer mortals calculating joint probability whilst sitting at the table is out of the question. You cant really think about a hand that hits a hand, its too hard... Folding while thinking your opponent hit two streets of play prior is almost as bad as folding when you think your opponent has two streets he is about to hit, like when someone goes all in with like a baby back door flush draw, that should give you some idea of how bad your fold is here, you basically backwards folded to a backdoor flush draw.
Big pots are for big hands. You like to get a lot of positive expectation when you are forced to play a big hand, but I wouldn't pass on the opportunity to suck out against an average player. As a final point-your one step chance of winning could be really great here as flush boards are more noticeable then straight boards and... basically ... you could actually see immediately a very likely hand like an under pair with no diamond bluffing you meaning only one out which is pretty much exactly the most expectation you can ever hope for in a big pot. That's all I have to say

its only 130 bb deep so its a call duh

jk this is a super fishy play but yeah unless he is bad and tilted just fold. when i do see people make these plays its usually a small flush/set

Just fold. 160 bbs deep is def an important factor. I don't think we will find our selfs in front the majority of the times. If we count the flush draws he got plus the times that we are almos dead, we will probably be flipping our money on the longrun. This are my arguments for finding a fold here.

So he folds to 3bets 80%, 4 bets 6%, leaving him with a call 14%. If he's opening 24% that leaves him with a call a little less than 3.5% of the time. (.24*.14). What types of hands do you imagine he's flatting with? While he may occasionally mix in a flat with AA,KK I think it's more likely he flats with like 88-JJ, AQ.. If he did mix in a flat with AA, KK, or AKs I think it's pretty unlikely he just piles with the nuts or overpair plus nut draw and elects to make a more standard raise or even try to trap. I think his range in this spot looks like JJ, 88, TTd, 99d, or AK, AQ with one diamond. I could see him reasonably making this move with all of those hands.

My decision would come down to how aggressive he plays.. If he's aggressive post flop I think it's more likely he could be making the move with the 99, TT, AK or AQ one diamond hands and I'm calling. If he's generally passive post flop it's more likely he has the "scared" set and just wants to push all in and I'm folding. This decision comes down to your reads on his post flop play and also his aggression factor which you haven't listed.

Also, I think there is real merit to checking back this flop with the overpair plus third nut diamond. Although, with more solid reads on his post flop play, betting is fine because you would know how to react in a situation like this one.

wtf don't fold

So he folds to 3bets 80%, 4 bets 6%, leaving him with a call 14%. If he's opening 24% that leaves him with a call a little less than 3.5% of the time. (.24*.14). What types of hands do you imagine he's flatting with? While he may occasionally mix in a flat with AA,KK I think it's more likely he flats with like 88-JJ, AQ.. If he did mix in a flat with AA, KK, or AKs I think it's pretty unlikely he just piles with the nuts or overpair plus nut draw and elects to make a more standard raise or even try to trap. I think his range in this spot looks like JJ, 88, TTd, 99d, or AK, AQ with one diamond. I could see him reasonably making this move with all of those hands.

My decision would come down to how aggressive he plays.. If he's aggressive post flop I think it's more likely he could be making the move with the 99, TT, AK or AQ one diamond hands and I'm calling. If he's generally passive post flop it's more likely he has the "scared" set and just wants to push all in and I'm folding. This decision comes down to your reads on his post flop play and also his aggression factor which you haven't listed.

Also, I think there is real merit to checking back this flop with the overpair plus third nut diamond. Although, with more solid reads on his post flop play, betting is fine because you would know how to react in a situation like this one.