villain is 46/4 1.1agf weak fish w/ 0 3bet on 50h; 0 c/r or r flop
flop: assumptions: villain is not bluffraising this flop in a high percentage = not folding much
not sure if we should 3bet the flop. ingame i thought that it might be pretty bad cause we only get it in vs OP+ and bigger flushdraws. but afterwards i'm not sure if he even c/minr his flushdraws, probably not.
so against a range of AA/TT/66/22/96s we are flipping. this range is already discounted, but changing the range is not affecting our equity. the question is: getting it in most +ev? ip we got beautiful equity/playability against his strong range and i think we can extract alot more value by "just" calling.
turn: now 100% sure this type of player not potbetting w/ a draw. this means we have very few reverse implied odds and should definitly call here?! getting 2:1 odds and are about 2,3:1 dog.
Raise the flop! You don't have a made hand yet. If he's got a pair ur like fiddy/fiddy to win. So you raise and don't really mind wether he folds or calls/ships it in.
He calls and you got tons of outs. He folds and you pick up the pot. You call and you might kill the action on a diamond card especially diamond overcards.
I think the flop call is good here. You are probably flipping vs villians
stacking range, but i also think that he wont be c/r folding very often.
Considering that you get very goods odds and have good implified odds,
a call should be more profitable.
The turn fold is very bad imo. You have 13-15 outs you will get paid off a decent amount of the time when you hit your draw on the river.
i don't understand teh flop call here, why not raise flop when you have the equity rather than miss the draw and face a tough decision at turn? flop raise is +EV right? you have 50+ equity if called, and you have fold equity.
Sigh call flop is much better than raising in terms of EV against this player, since he is rarely raise folding. Turn is a call and hope to bink, your odds and implied are plenty good enough