I agree on the overpair issue, but do you think villain has enough bluffs here over 56, or XYcc? We aren't getting really good odds, he has to bluff like 1/3 of the time.

standard.

3 ways i play this - not sure which is best. i'll put them in order of how i would usually play it.

1) call preflop. raise flop. if he continues with the hand i shut down. turn should go check-check unless i improve, and i may make a small river call, but probably not anything more than 2/3 pot.

2) 3bet pf. continue aggression until shown otherwise.

3) as you played.


that's what i do, and i suck, so take it for what it's worth

That bluff number seems like a big number, but it's my contention that if he is capable of bluffing and does so in a nonrandom fashion that he bluffs here too much. I started with the assumption that most tag villains will check clubs, 65s and sets on this turn 30-70% of the time. His 3 barrel value range is very small. Something like 2.5% of total hands if he never checks the turn with any of draw set or straight. AKo is .9% of hands.

So if he only bluffed AKo and double barrelled the majority of hands that beat us, then we would have close to the right odds to call. If he bluffs with AKo and AKs then we have clear odds to call. If he ever bluffs it's right to call this river.

Just shove river.

This wins you the pot when MT's logic is correct, and also wins you the pot when he's b/f his overpairs. Definitely more EV+ than calling imo

i think most tags at ssnl are double barrelling 65 and clubs here, for better or worse.