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100nl KK river xc vs weak player 100nl KK river xc vs weak player

06-29-2014 , 10:00 PM
Tables had started to transition from loose players into tight/passive mode. It was nearly impossible to value bet vs these guys, they kept folding every flop to aggression.
Villain had FTCB 90% AF 1.3 Cbet flop 25% Limp 16% WTSD 30%.
So i tried to induce more calls by betting smaller (which i think is mistake). Can't go for 2 streets so i tried to go for small/small/shove. OTR I don't think i will get called by worse, given that he is so weak-tight, but i thought he might bet with worse. I don't think he is limping JJ or 99.
67 got there, although didn't raise turn. A3 also got there. Would he jam AT here? Should we just xf? It might seem ridiculous but vs this kind of villain i am giving up overpairs and being proud of it.

partypoker - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): $108.65
BB: $90.93 (VPIP: 42.03, PFR: 10.14, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 70)
UTG: $497.93 (VPIP: 57.45, PFR: 6.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
CO: $108.90 (VPIP: 34.73, PFR: 16.87, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 167)
BTN: $252.43 (VPIP: 24.21, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 96)

Hero posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has K K

UTG calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00, fold, Hero raises to $8.00, fold, UTG calls $7.00, CO calls $7.00

Flop: ($25.00, 3 players) 4 T 5
Hero bets $11.00, fold, CO calls $11.00

Turn: ($47.00, 2 players) 8
Hero bets $20.00, CO calls $20.00

River: ($87.00, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, CO bets $69.90 and is all-in, Hero calls $69.65 and is all-in
06-29-2014 , 11:21 PM
Given your read if you're checking river it should be to fold, but i'd have moved in myself anyway. Fish gonna fish.
06-30-2014 , 03:41 AM
Can we really give a loose-passive with that low an AF credit for ever bluff shoving the river, or even valuebetting AT here? Loose-passives rarely bluff shove. Think river is a fold as played. Also, is that pre flop raise sizing not way huge? I suppose the only thing that makes it ok is that we're playing vs two fish.
06-30-2014 , 06:33 AM
His flop calling cbet range is probably not very elastic though if he folds 90% to cbets which means we should be betting big with value hands and small with bluffs.

Shove river urself. His WTSD% is high so if he's not folding to cbet he isn't folding to later bets.
06-30-2014 , 07:06 AM
What is he calling with? Hands that he limped with, instead of raising with his 17% PFR?
I don't see any. Even ATo is open for him The guy is very passive nutpeddler waiting for coolers, he's not gonna stack off JTs.
Reconsidering the hand i think bet/folding river might have been better to get calls from like JT.
Raise size pre was due to UTG being a callion station. I made a mistake by not considering him in the pot.
06-30-2014 , 08:32 AM
I'd probably size my flop&turn bets in a way so that I could jam river for like 50-60% pot,
as played I'd still jam basically because

Quote:
Originally Posted by mucknuts
Fish gonna fish.
06-30-2014 , 07:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishtankz
What is he calling with? Hands that he limped with, instead of raising with his 17% PFR?
I don't see any. Even ATo is open for him The guy is very passive nutpeddler waiting for coolers, he's not gonna stack off JTs.
Reconsidering the hand i think bet/folding river might have been better to get calls from like JT.
Raise size pre was due to UTG being a callion station. I made a mistake by not considering him in the pot.
With the stats you have , I expect villain to station off very wide. His preflop stats provide a much better representation of his posflop play given the tiny sample of hands you have. Saying that a player is a nutpeddler postflop after playing 157 hands where he folded to a few cbets is completely ridiculous. I think it's an easy barrell off for value, I would be shocked if he doesn't call with the hands you mentioned above.

      
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