Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BB: $85.85
CO: $115.15
BTN: $101.90
Hero (SB): $200.90

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with K J
CO raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $3, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($10.50) 5 9 K (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets $8, Hero calls $8, BB calls $8

Turn: ($34.50) 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $25, BB folds, CO calls $25

River: ($84.50) J (2 players)

Preflop may be bad since I'm going to be out of position without knowing where I am when I flop top pair, but ignore that. What I'm most concerned about is how to play it postflop.

I have, unfortunately, very few reads on villain. After only 100 hands or so, I haven't seen enough of him postflop to know if he's aggro or passive. He is 26/13, though.

Since the hand is 3-way on the turn, I decided to lead out close to pot to charge/drive out flush draws, and to see where I am. I don't think checking here is bad so to speak, but seeing it get checked through when I very well may have the best hand is pretty sick.
Original raiser calls, what range do you put him on, and what part of those ranges call a shove?

his line looks like Kx and occossional twopair/sets/draws. Bet 60 for value.

Do you think he calls $60 with those hands and not 78?

The guy probably has a KQ/AK type hand that wont call a shove, but probably a 1/2 pot vb is best, and if you get raised you have to call, but you were gonna shove anyway...

Is this the type of player that will get on the 3street stack program with AK?

Turn is close to a check I think.

78 is ofcourse in his range too. And he dont neccessarily calls with every combination in his range, but a significant part of it. Either way, i think you have two options: bet or check/fold. I lean heavily towards betting.

3bet or fold preflop

Sorry, I meant $78, meaning the amount he has left. I agree that if I check this board, I'm looking to be crushed if he bets here, so a bet/call, check/fold looks best. Bet-sizing is critical, however. I'm not sure which has more value, $40, $60 or a shove.

I have a kind of a rule that says that if you are going to bet for thin value, dont bet lesser than 60% of the pot. Its something that ive learned from twoplustwo i think.

I'm not sure if I agree with this. I think bet-sizing should be specifically directed to your opponent and the situation. I don't like adhering to standards or rules very often, tbh. I think it makes me far too complacent and inflexible.

I think a half-pot bet here would work pretty well, since some of the hands that beat me may not shove over (straights, baby flushes, etc), and there's the off chance a hand like AK/KQ may not call a larger bet.

Bet/folding is not an option because of the pot odds. He has 75 left. Actually i dont think it matters much what size you are choosing, but i wouldnt push all in since it could look scary to him, and not lesser than half the pot because you effectively get more value out of his range by betting more imo. By betting more, you do a much easier bet/call and by betting less, you could fall into difficult situations if he raises. I think this is an important factor to concider. Betting half pot often push you in that direction. I still like 60-65.

fold pre being oop here just sux and with kj your not even in that great shape against the kings he opens on the CO.

anyway ignoring pre

He has a psb left, so you cant b/f. jamming rest in is sorta scary tough, so I guess 55-60?

I absolutely agree that bet/folding is not an option here. If I were to bet half-pot here, it wouldn't be to bet/fold, but rather to increase his calling range.

Let's assume that his range on the river is:

AK, KQ, K9, 56, flush draws, 78, and TT-QQ (this may be way off)

He's going to call any bet with flush draws/sets/2-pair hands. If I can't get hands like AK to call on the river here, it's too thin:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.905% 61.90% 00.00% 13 0.00 { JJ, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, K9s, QdJd, JdTd, 87s, 8d6d, 7d6d, 65s, 4d3d, K9o }
Hand 1: 38.095% 38.10% 00.00% 8 0.00 { KhJc }

I guess my question here is, do you think AK calls a $40 bet and not a $60 bet? And what about KQ?

With AK/Without KQ:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.276% 48.28% 00.00% 14 0.00 { JJ, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, K9s, QdJd, JdTd, 87s, 8d6d, 7d6d, 65s, 4d3d, AKo, K9o }
Hand 1: 51.724% 51.72% 00.00% 15 0.00 { KhJc }

With KQ:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.541% 40.54% 00.00% 15 0.00 { JJ, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, KQs, K9s, QdJd, JdTd, 87s, 8d6d, 7d6d, 65s, 4d3d, AKo, KQo, K9o }
Hand 1: 59.459% 59.46% 00.00% 22 0.00 { KhJc }

Hmm.. You need to talk about number of combinations or % of a hand, not "All AK's and no KQ's". Villains behavior is fluid.

The thing is that you get more WB combinations to call if you bet lower, but then you get lesser value for each combination. If you bet more, you get called from fewer WB combinations but get more value from each combination. Together, its about the same and not much difference. If there is a difference i think you get more value totally the more you bet in general.

I dont think 55 and 65 change his callingrange significantly to make 55 a more profitable bet. Your bet-call is more profitable if he raises if you bet bigger than if you bet smaller. Hence; bet 60-70.

This may be very hypotetical, but i think i got understood now.