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100NL: kind of meh spot with trips 100NL: kind of meh spot with trips

02-11-2010 , 06:10 PM
Reads
Villain was 16/13 over 180 hands. Hes been playing tight as usual.

Thoughts
So, i kind of have kicker issues here, so my plan was to cbet flop so he will call with some pockets 88 up, 67s 78s, and weaker flush draws/other floats. Wouldnt have minded a flop c/c though either.
Then check turn to catch floats since i don't get value from weaker with a turn bet. Kind of a bad turn card since he will expect me to bet it with air, but i still don't think i get value from worse often enough though.
On the river, i think he would have bet the turn with an A, so that leaves better Kx, and the value range from flop which probably wont call a bet given my line.

Hand
Could i actually c/f the river here?

Ongame Network $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $82.00
Hero (CO): $101.25
BTN: $144.45
SB: $60.05

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with T K
Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 4 7 K (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, BTN calls $4.50

Turn: ($16.50) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($16.50) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $16.00, Hero?
02-11-2010 , 06:25 PM
first off, is the 16/13 tight postflop?

you should be dbl barreling that turn, and betting the river again for value.

as for your plan to c/fold, no. your hand looks very weak, and while he could theoretically have a better king, he can easily be v-betting worse, and bluffing with tons of whiffed draws.

I'm at least calling.
02-11-2010 , 06:32 PM
+1 for turn bet. He could fold KJ/KQ.
River, I'd lead myself, as played, snapcall.
02-11-2010 , 06:33 PM
you actually beat nothing esp with his bet size and the fact that you have a king so often.

If i'm playing my best I may be able to fold it, seems like one of them situations where everyone calls because they have trips even tho they know they are usually beat.
02-11-2010 , 06:42 PM
villian has tons of busted draws here, with the occasional Axcc valuebetting.

c/f is just so weak. maybe if you have a ton of hands on villian, and he's like 0.5 AF or something you can fold.
02-11-2010 , 06:45 PM
gotta admit though his range is greatly leaning towards KJ/KQ , he is def raising AxCC ott. it would be a very strange line with 44/77
never folding neway
02-11-2010 , 06:58 PM
A is a good card to bet the turn.
c/c the river is fine, because he often bluffs there.
02-11-2010 , 06:59 PM
I don't think he ever bets that much with a ace. The draws he can have are qjcc,jtcc,9tcc,89cc,65s..if you lose 65s and 89cc because of the fact that he will bet the turn with a draw sometimes and he will not always bluff the river, you don't have enough equity to call. I guess it depends on how often you think he does this with a draw.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11 games 0.001 secs 11,000 games/sec

Board: Kc 7c 4s As Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.273% 27.27% 00.00% 3 0.00 { KsTs }
Hand 1: 72.727% 72.73% 00.00% 8 0.00 { KJs+, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, KJo+ }

I would prob bet the turn and lead the river any how.
02-11-2010 , 07:05 PM
Why make hero folds in small pots like this? Just call, see what he has, expect to be good >=33% of the time from random aces trying to value bet (you rep nothing yourself) and missed draws.

Quote:
I don't think he ever bets that much with a ace
You don't know that. He could be kinda bad and that's how he value bets - near the pot. He could be kinda good and figure a big bet looks bluffish and since clubs missed, he could get a call from worse hands.
02-11-2010 , 07:18 PM
his overbet looks weak to me given action

if he had kq or kj or better I think he would still bet the turn expecting you to keep firing if you catch the ace. at least more often than overbeting the river with same hands

I'd call this everytime; the only thing that might deter me is if he has had a history of big bets with the nuts when you rep nothing-which means he would do this with all of his Kings which include some hands with lower kicker than you
02-11-2010 , 07:18 PM
call
02-12-2010 , 10:41 AM
Thnx for replys all, yer i kind of think i should have bet the turn too.
still.. not rly sure about river though.

Results:
Spoiler:
Villain showed KJo
02-12-2010 , 10:45 AM
its a call.

bet the turn imo.

      
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