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100nl - Fold one time 100nl - Fold one time

06-18-2008 , 10:34 PM
Villain is 24/22/infinity over 24 hands.

2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BB: $209.50
UTG: $241.60
Hero (MP): $182.85
CO: $107.75
BTN: $109.65
SB: $79.50

Pre Flop: Hero is MP with 7 7
UTG raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 4 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 3 2 T (2 players)
UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) J (2 players)
UTG bets $15, Hero raises to $50
06-18-2008 , 10:40 PM
its ok. doesnt really matter what you have here though. you are turning ur hand into a bluff, if you think you best hand then you shouldnt be raising.
06-18-2008 , 10:43 PM
seems ok, I would never do this without reads though
06-18-2008 , 11:08 PM
you could get rebluffed a lot or called down light here if opponent is thinking. But, most opponents will be lost in this spot and just fold to you. I doubt they fold overpair though.

so its ok but not great.
06-18-2008 , 11:36 PM
why why why
06-19-2008 , 12:06 AM
So you're repping J10? Maybe AJhh? I think a good villain might fold 88/99, not much else. Still, unless villain is really thinking he might fold some hands as c/r turn=big hands usually.
06-19-2008 , 12:08 AM
i'd like it better if you weren't already beating a bunch of hands you fold out
06-19-2008 , 12:25 AM
I don't know... calling down and folding both suck against a good loose player like this, so I can see why you want to raise. But you have no redraw if behind. Are you calling an all-in re-raise? Is a LAG ever folding getting 2:1 in a big pot with two possible flush draws and no real scare card?
06-19-2008 , 12:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the machine
its ok. doesnt really matter what you have here though. you are turning ur hand into a bluff, if you think you best hand then you shouldnt be raising.
am i reading this correctly? u say if ur hand is best dont raise? why?
06-19-2008 , 01:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LetMeLive
am i reading this correctly? u say if ur hand is best dont raise? why?
any hand our 7's are ahead of are definitely not calling a raise
06-19-2008 , 01:18 AM
I rep plenty, I would FC JJ, 1010, J10s, 45s here, maybe not 45 100% but definitely some part of the time

My flop peel is mandatory I felt, when he barrels the turn I feel like I'm beat too much to continue but if I raise villain has to fold pretty much anything that isn't a great draw or a set given my line/depth of stacks
06-19-2008 , 01:26 AM
In this situation the villain is making solid bets on every street, on the flop he could have a pair of 88 or 99s and be on a continuation bet by almost betting the pot. But on the Turn he fired another bullet. If he had something like AK or AQ, it would be weird for him to keep betting, unless he had Ah Kh or Ah Qh. Your raise on the turn could chase away 88s or 99s, but maybe not AhKh or AhQh or another pair. He could also have a hand like A To, not putting you on a J. If you are determined to play I would try my best to keep the pot small to get more info on the player's tendencies. Obviously if he re raises on turn, throw the 7s away. I like the play as long as you feel you have some fold equity and you have a good idea he would bet his draws or smaller pairs.
06-19-2008 , 01:40 AM
I just don't like it cause he's got an overpair a lot, and you don't really have a read that he's any good or any dynamic. There's also a ton of draws out there.

I like this raise more with 77 than QJhh (or some other big draw), fwiw.

Like his range on the turn with hands he continues with is pretty damn strong, so in general I wouldn't raise.

oh, sets raise the flop a lot, jacks 3bet preflop a lot (rightly or wrongly), so you actually don't rep your hands that strongly. Not to say if I have KK in his spot I don't think "lol look at this fool, he's got 77!".
06-19-2008 , 01:51 AM
i mean, if you're calling flop against a guy whom you can expect to barrel lightly, you have to do some **** sometimes
06-19-2008 , 02:06 AM
meh you dont have any real read on the guy,this is just spew imho,ive tried to make unknowns fold way too much recently and it never rly works out greatly, if turn was a heart this would be better imho.
06-19-2008 , 04:14 AM
idea is good that he 2nd barrels here often, but if you have no reads i won't reccomend such a play.
another thing i don't like, is that villain is UTG, you call with 77 because you have good IO because his range is tight and a lot of good hands, then don't bluff!
06-19-2008 , 04:25 AM
This is some kinky stuff.
You show alot of strenght, but I think its not the best timing. Like PJ0548 said above me, he is UTG and is not folding alot imo.
06-19-2008 , 04:47 AM
I guess you might have JJ here, but you're not raising flop w/ 1010? I don't hate the play as I do similar moves w/ a lot of hands that I don't think are good anymore on turn, and they tend to work, so maybe its not all that bad. Still, I think you have to assume he ships QQ+ if he is unknown, but the more I think about it the more I realize people usually dont think about it enough to realize this line seems fos, so I like it.
06-19-2008 , 05:31 AM
Interesting. I'll give it a shot.

Let's assume for a sec he opens UTG with UTG JQ+, KQ+, AT+, 22+, cbets 100%.

First, his range:

* Sets make 15% of his range
* Strong drawing hands (Broadway hearts/spades,KQo),compose 15%~ of his range
* Overpairs/AJo/JKo compose 30% of his range.
* Worse hands and slightly better hands (think 99) are 40% of his range

If he double barrels 100% we have at least 40% fold equity. But we raise to $50 to win $35, so we need 70% equity. Meaning - that he must fold ALL his strong one-pair hands (the extra 30%) for a turn raise to be +EV in the context of the turn only.

Now suppose he check/folds the lower 40% of his range on the turn. If he bet/folds ALL his one-pair hands - these compose only 50% of his turn betting range. Again, we need 70% FE here. So that won't work.

The river analysis if he calls is a bit too much for me to do right now, but it's a nice spot to analyze, because stacks are pretty sweet for a bluff shove.

So - although I liked it at first - I guess this is bad.
06-19-2008 , 09:26 AM
If you are going to turn your hand into a bluff, raise on the flop is much better.

      
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